Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: Red River Rivalry odds, picks, best bets

The 120th edition of the Red River Rivalry gets underway this weekend as top-ranked Texas faces No. 18 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl.

Texas leads the all-time series 63-51-5 but is just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings, including a 34-30 defeat in 2023 for its only regular-season loss. The victory was a sweet revenge for Oklahoma after getting shut out, 49-0, by Texas in 2022.

Oklahoma, which is transitioning at quarterback and could be without some key players Saturday, is an underdog of more than two touchdowns. 

Thus, the Sooners could be destined for a slow start Saturday while they try to adjust to the changes within their personnel.

Texas vs. Oklahoma odds

Texas outlook

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is making his return to the starting lineup this week after missing two-plus games with a strained oblique.

While backup quarterback Arch Manning admirably guided Texas to back-to-back victories, coach Steve Sarkisian is putting Ewers right back in the saddle.

If Ewers was a quarterback who lacked experience, I’d be concerned about him returning in such a big spot. However, he’s already played in two Red River Rivalry games since winning the starting job in 2022 as a redshirt freshman.

According to Game On Paper, Texas ranks second in Adjusted Expected Points Added (+0.54), while Oklahoma is 49th (+0.08). 

The Longhorns also rank fifth in Net Yards per Play (+3.15) compared to 93rd for Oklahoma (-0.30). As good as Oklahoma’s defense is purported to be, that’s a significant yardage deficit for a team to overcome.

Oklahoma outlook

While Texas’ injury report is fairly clean, the Sooners aren’t nearly as healthy.

Top wide receiver Deion Burks, who is suffering from a soft-tissue injury, won’t play Saturday. The junior and Purdue transfer leads the receiving corps in touchdowns (three), yardage (201) and receptions (26).

Burks joins a crowded list of Oklahoma wide receivers who will miss the game, including Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson, Andrel Anthony and Jayden Gibson. Farooq had 130 receiving yards when the teams met last year and Anderson caught the winning touchdown.

Oklahoma’s wide receiving room is so depleted that it’s even converting some defensive backs to help fill the void.

In addition, the Sooners have a third different starting quarterback following Dillon Gabriel’s departure to Oregon and Brent Venables’ decision to replace Jackson Arnold with Michael Hawkins Jr.

Turnovers played a massive role in the quarterback change, but one has to wonder if Hawkins will be able to hold his nerve as the first true freshman to ever start in a Red River Rivalry game.

Texas vs. Oklahoma pick

While Hawkins is in a difficult spot with so many vital weapons inactive, what he can’t do is turn the ball over. Without his best receivers on the field, it’ll take some time for him to establish a rhythm. 

Moreover, Oklahoma’s running game isn’t great, considering it ranks 94th in Expected Points Added per Attempt (-0.04) and 124th in Rushing Success Rate (32.9%).

The best way to take advantage of this information is to fade Hawkins and the Sooners in the first half.

Betting on College Football?

According to Action Network, the Longhorns are 16-9 against the first-half spread under Sarkisian when laying 10 or fewer points.

This handicap is also further strengthened when coupled with the revenge angle from last season. 

Best bet: Texas 1H -7 (-120, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.