Oregon vs. Ohio State prediction: College football odds, picks, bets, player props

Dan Lanning spent four years as an integral part of Kirby Smart’s coaching staff at Georgia.

He rose from outside linebackers coach to defensive coordinator and witnessed Smart transform UGA from a pesky threat in the SEC East into an Alabama-esque juggernaut. 

Those formative years in Athens provided Lanning with a blueprint to win and win big.

He’s got the first part down pat, sporting records of 27-5 straight-up (SU) and 19-12-1 against the spread (ATS) at Oregon, but can he make good on the second part by downing a top-five opponent for the first time in his career? 

He’ll get another crack at it on Saturday when his third-ranked Ducks (+3.5) take on No. 2 Ohio State in Eugene. 

Oregon has the overall roster talent to compete for a national title.

They also have the specific roster composition (read: line play) to compete with a conference rival like Ohio State. 

When the Ducks sprint out in front of 54,000 crazed fans on Saturday afternoon, they’ll possess the nation’s sixth-best roster from a recruiting perspective, just three spots below Ohio State. 

They’ve won key recruiting battles at the high school level and in the portal while using an NIL war chest to retain key players.

But the headline this offseason came when they plucked QB Dillon Gabriel out of the portal. 

Gabriel’s 16,314 career passing yards put him within range of the career record currently held by Houston’s Case Keenum (19,217).

So purely from a “Jimmys and Joes” perspective, Oregon will not be outclassed by Ohio State on Saturday. 

From a betting perspective, we’re getting a discount on the Ducks at home because they have been up and down in 2024.

They’ve won with brilliant special teams and defense, and they’ve been the beneficiaries of steady quarterback play.

The problem is that they haven’t played at a championship level in all three phases in the same game. 

A pair of return touchdowns saved them against Boise State.

Their defense stiffened against Idaho in the second half of their opener, thwarting an upset bid.

And their offense ran up 546 yards and 49 points against Oregon State.

Can they put it all together for the first time against a team that is 21-1 SU as a road favorite since 2019? 

There are two reasons I believe the Ducks can win: Sleepy starts and a No Fly Zone secondary.

The Buckeyes played with their food against Marshall and Iowa in recent weeks.

They were tied with the Thundering Herd in the second quarter and clung to a 7-0 lead over Iowa in the third quarter last week.

They ended up breaking both games wide open, but they can ill afford to dig a hole for themselves at Autzen Stadium. 

Betting on College Football?

If Ohio State spots Oregon a seven or 10-point lead early, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly will have no choice but to go to the air, which would play directly into Oregon’s hands.

The Ducks have the fifth-highest coverage grade per Pro Football Focus, create the second-most havoc and do a great job getting off the field on third down (25th). 

Ohio State’s Will Howard has also struggled when asked to shoulder the offensive load.

He has thrown the ball 30-plus times on six occasions in the past year and a half and averaged two turnover-worthy plays per game.

His record in those games is 2-4 (all of the losses coming at Kansas State). 

Oregon has a high ceiling in all three phases and a raucous home crowd, which could tip the scales in favor of the Ducks in a close game. 

Recommendation: Oregon moneyline (+140, Caesars).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.