Sunday Night Football: Bengals-Giants betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

• 2024 Record — 12-14 (46.1%); -2.27 units won: Thursday night’s action ended with a 1-1 finish from a high-scoring matchup, with Niners quarterback Brock Purdy just squeezing over his 250.5-yard passing line and Seahawks wide receiver D.K. Metcalf missing out on eclipsing 61.5 receiving yards.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

Game Overview

The bright lights of Sunday Night Football shine upon a pair of teams that have failed to gather many wins but have begun to find their identities.

The Bengals have struggled to consistently cover the spread (2-3 record) in 2024, which could present a challenge against this Giants team that has covered in three straight games, including a pair of outright wins on the road. However, Cincinnati will be motivated after dropping a close overtime game against the Ravens this past week that they very well could have won.

Cincinnati matchups have been a showering of points as Zac Taylor’s offense is catching its stride. At the same time, the team’s defense is getting regularly hammered, resulting in four straight overs on the game total. Since Week 3, the Bengals have the third-highest EPA per play on offense and the lowest EPA per play allowed on defense.

Much of the credit offensively goes to the electric tandem of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, with the duo going on a tear over the past three games. Burrow holds the NFL’s third-highest PFF passing grade over that span, posting the most touchdown passes (10) to go with an impressive 6-to-1 big-time-throw-to-turnover-worthy-play ratio. His top target, Chase, has been putting up incredible numbers of his own over the past three games, highlighted by league-leading marks in receiving yardage (396), yards per route run (3.47) and catches of 15-plus yards (10) — all on just 24 targets.

Week 6 marks the sixth straight matchup in 2024 in which oddsmakers have gifted the Giants points despite recent success. New York has improved on both sides of the ball to help facilitate that surge. Offensively, Daniel Jones and the passing game have gone from a bottom-eight unit in EPA per pass play (-0.191) in the first two games to a top-10 group (0.125) from Week 3 onward.

It’s easy to point to the breakout of first-year receiver Malik Nabers, who is slated to miss this week, as the primary reason for this boost, which is understandable given his incredible start. But that trend continued this past week without Nabers in the lineup, as the Giants generated their highest single-game EPA per pass output of the year against Seattle.

On top of the offensive showing, the Giants’ defense deserves its flowers, as well. The unit possesses top-five marks in overall team defense grade (73.6) and EPA per play allowed over its past three games. The pass rush has generated the most sacks (20) and the second-most total pressures (68) over that span. However, New York will have to contend without the help of third-year edge defender Kayvon Thibodeaux (wrist), who was placed on injured reserve.

WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants: Over 49.5 receiving/rushing yards (-115) — 1.8% PFF Greenline Edge

Rookie Malik Nabers (concussion) is out for a second straight week, so the attention turns back to Darius Slayton to again carry the load in the passing game. Without Nabers in the lineup this past week, Slayton saw significant volume to the tune of eight receptions on 11 targets for 122 yards and a score. He was equally impressive from an advanced metrics standpoint, racking up three contested catches and three receptions of 15-plus yards, on his way to a 139.2 passer rating when targeted.

This week, Slayton is in a much more favorable matchup against a Bengals coverage unit that has struggled to find its footing in recent weeks. Over the past three games, Cincinnati has secured just a 42.6 team coverage grade (29th), surrendered 0.356 EPA per dropback (30th) and allowed an open target on 65.7% of attempts (28th). All of those marks directly contribute to the second-lowest defensive success rate on pass plays (37.2%) since Week 3.