Yankees vs. Guardians prediction, picks: ALCS Game 5 best bets as New York’s hard-hitting trio stays hot

The Mets were able to send the NLCS back to Los Angeles for at least Game 6, which means we know the World Series will not be moved up and will start on Friday, Oct. 25. Who will be taking part on that day? We can’t yet be sure. The Mets have the ability to win Games 6 and 7 in L.A. while the Dodgers can relatively easily just win one more game. 

On the AL side, we’ve been treated to two unbelievable games in Cleveland, but the Yankees now have a 3-1 lead in the series, which puts the Guardians up against elimination. 

For now, let’s zero in on Game 5 in the ALCS and grab some gambling plays. We’ve gone 2-0 in two of the last three days, so this would be a hot streak. 

Yankees at Guardians, 8:08 p.m. ET

LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Rodón has been pretty inconsistent since joining the Yankees. OK, last year was mostly bad, but in 2024 he’s had a lot of good mixed in. It’s all there in the last six weeks or so. He had a 4.31 ERA heading into September. In his last five regular-season starts, though, he pitched to a 2.20 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 28⅔ innings. Then he got touched up for four runs on seven hits in 3⅔ innings by the Royals in his first playoff start but bounced back with just one run on three hits in six innings last time out. It was Game 1 of this series and he struck out nine while not walking anyone. He was mostly dominant. 

Bibee had a 3.47 ERA in his 31 regular-season starts and has a 3.60 ERA in his three playoff starts. The Yankees scored three runs (two earned) in 1⅓ innings against him in Game 1. There was some poor defense behind him. But also, he might not even last very long, as the Guardians are being really aggressive in pulling starters this postseason in front of their dominant bullpen. 

The plays: Yankees over 3.5 runs and Aaron Judge over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI

The best aspects of the Guardians’ pitching staff are relievers Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase. They’ve collectively been beaten up as a group in the playoffs and only Herrin has a stat line that doesn’t look bad. Clase just got beaten up two days in a row and he was untouchable in the regular season. The Yankees had decent success in such a short window against Bibee in Game 1. 

Plus, Aaron Judge is hitting well right now, and that’s in addition to Juan Soto doing Juan Soto things. Giancarlo Stanton continues to be a total menace in the postseason. The Yankees are even getting bottom-of-the-order contributions. 

I just can’t see them failing to reach four runs under the current circumstances.

Also, we’ve hit on Judge with this prop two straight games, so I’m letting it ride. He homered in Games 2 and 3, and in Game 4 was 1 for 4 with a run. That means in the last three games, he’s gathered 11 hits, runs and RBI combined, an average of over three per game. We just need two here. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see another homer.