Bub Carrington: What NBA scouts are saying about the Washington Wizards rookie

WASHINGTON — Bub Carrington will make his NBA regular-season debut this week. But until seven or eight months ago, he never thought he would get this far.

“I had those kinds of aspirations, I guess, but the NBA wasn’t really a dream of mine, so to speak, until I knew it was possible, if that makes sense,” Carrington said after a Washington Wizards practice.

“I loved basketball. I had a great passion for it, and I wanted basketball to take me as far as it could take me. But in the back of my head, it was never like ‘NBA, NBA, NBA.’ It was just like, ‘I love basketball. I just like playing it.’ I really had no other dreams to go with it. And, then, about seven or eight months ago, I realized that I could keep having fun with this and keep playing at a higher level with better people.”

At least some NBA scouts recognized Carrington’s pro potential before he did. Evaluators who attended the Pitt Panthers’ preseason practices came away impressed with his competitiveness, feel for the game and positional size. An 18-point, 12-rebound, 10-assist debut in Pitt’s regular-season opener against North Carolina A&T prompted front offices across the NBA to follow him more closely.

The Wizards were one of those teams. After a thorough vetting process that included in-person interviews and a private pre-draft workout, Washington traded Deni Avdija to Portland in a draft-night deal for the 14th pick, a 2029 first-round pick, a pair of future second-round picks and veteran guard Malcolm Brogdon.

At No. 14, Carrington was the choice.

And now, rival NBA scouts think Carrington could develop into Washington’s point guard of the future.

As part of The Athletic’s annual series on the Wizards’ top prospects, I spoke with four talent evaluators who work for rival teams, and asked them for their opinions about Carrington’s strengths, weaknesses and long-term projection.

The Athletic granted the evaluators anonymity because front offices almost never allow their scouts to speak to news outlets for publication. Without granting anonymity, articles such as this one would not exist. Anonymity also allows the scouts to be completely honest, without fear of reprisals.

The evaluators were almost universally optimistic about Carrington’s future.

“I think he’s the best young prospect on the Wizards,” Scout A said. “I think he has a chance to be the best point guard in this previous draft class, and if he’s a 10-year NBA starter, it’s not going to shock me.”

Scout B said: “I think he has a chance to be one of the better prospects in this (past) draft.”

Carrington’s strengths

Why did Carrington underrate his NBA chances until recently?

“The majority of my life, I was the smallest guy on the court,” Carrington told The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie in June.

Carrington stood 5-foot-7 as a high-school freshman, 5-foot-8 as a sophomore and then hit his growth spurt, finishing high school around 6-foot-1.

But what was once his biggest weakness is now one of his greatest strengths. This May, at the NBA Draft Combine, he measured 6-foot-3 3/4 without shoes. He also posted a 6-foot-8 wingspan.

Because he turned 19 in July, there’s a chance he’ll grow a bit more.

“He’s probably going to be really big for a point guard,” Scout C said. “He’s a pure point guard, and I don’t know if that was the evaluation when he was going (off) to college, but it definitely was that in college. If he can stand at the 3-point line and make upwards of 38 to 42 percent of his 3s, he’ll be dangerous, because his pick-and-roll play will be very strong. He’s just got so much size and he can hold defenders off in the pick-and-roll, and he’ll grow.”

In a few instances this preseason, Carrington’s height served him well.

In the clip that follows from the Wizards’ preseason loss to the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, he holds the ball on the left wing as he waits for teammate Corey Kispert to set a screen on 6-foot-8 Precious Achiuwa. Carrington then elevates for a pop-up 3, and he launches the shot over Achiuwa’s outstretched left arm.

The clip also indicates the soundness of Carrington’s shooting motion. He made just 32 percent of his 3-point tries during his one-and-done year at Pitt and made 29 percent of his 21 long-range attempts during the Wizards’ preseason. Those percentages, of course, will need to improve — as Scout C and others noted — but his shot is smooth. He has a strong chance to improve with more reps.

Indeed, one of the most impressive aspects of Carrington’s performance at Pitt was his shot making.

“I was a big fan of his,” Scout D said. “His shot-creation is further along. Really crafty. He can get to his spots and elevate and knock those shots down, which he showed even in summer league. … He showed that ability to separate, enough quickness and ball skills to get a shot off.”

In college, Carrington loved to take pull-up shots anywhere from the free-throw line to beyond the top of the arc. That continued during the preseason.

“I really liked his ability to knock down some tough jumpers,” Scout B said. “On tough shots off the dribble, he showed the ability to hit those types of shots, which I think translates well to the NBA game.”

But what scouts seem to appreciate as much as anything else are Carrington’s smarts, work ethic and feel for the game. As the son of a highly regarded coach in the Baltimore area, Carrington plays with the wisdom of a much older player.

“He’s got that baby face, and you know he just turned 19, but you see how he processes the game on both ends,” Scout A said. “He clearly grew up around basketball his whole life.”

Scout C said: “He’s really an intriguing guy, and it was a really good pick because of his size and because he’s got a natural feel for the game. He contributes in all these little ways. I think he’ll be one of those guys that the basketball people and the basketball nerds and junkies really appreciate. He may not post these gaudy statistics or anything, but I think he’ll be someone that’s always a positive when he’s on the floor because he’s scrappy and he’s really smart.”

Wizards players have lauded Carrington’s competitiveness during team practices, with veteran forward Kyle Kuzma saying, “You can tell he’s grateful to be here. He’s happy to be here in the NBA. … He wants to hoop. He loves to hoop.”

On this sequence, from Washington’s preseason win over Toronto on Oct. 11, Carrington makes multiple defensive efforts — first chasing ballhandler DJ Carton around a screen set by center Bruno Fernando, then impeding a drive to the lane by Carton, then shading over into the lane to help on a drive by Jamal Shead before finally racing out to the perimeter to slow Carton on another drive. This video demonstrates Carrington’s “competitive spirit.”

Because of Carrington’s size and competitiveness, Wizards officials think he can guard point guards, shooting guards and small forwards right away. In time, they think he’ll be able to defend against some small-ball power forwards as well.

Carrington’s weaknesses

One aspect of Carrington’s game that concerned NBA front offices was his shot profile at Pitt. Carrington relied heavily on midrange shots, which analytics departments tend to hate. While Carrington’s 3-point percentage needed (and still needs) to improve, perhaps equally troubling was that he did not attack the rim often or well.

Part of the issue is that Carrington is not especially athletic or explosive.

But Carrington’s reluctance to drive to the rim and finish strongly also has to do with learning his strengths. Because he used to be the smallest player on the court, he spent years avoiding forays to the basket and developing his arsenal of pull-up jumpers. It’s going to take him time to learn how to use his size to his best advantage.

When asked earlier this month by The Athletic about how his growth spurt has changed his game, Carrington offered a telling answer that showed just how self-aware he is. “It made basketball, I guess, a little bit easier, but it didn’t really change my mindset,” he said. “I get told even by our coaches now that I play like I’m 5-10 still. I’m still adjusting to my height as well. I feel like I’m still growing every day.”

In this video, from the Wizards’ Oct. 14 preseason loss in Brooklyn, Carrington misses a cutting layup attempt in which he was challenged by the Nets’ Dennis Schröder and Cam Johnson. This is the kind of play that Carrington likely will convert successfully in time, after he learns opponents’ strengths and — just as importantly — learns his own abilities.

“He has to become a better finisher at the rim,” Scout A said. “I know there was a lot of stuff (said) about how he was so small growing up that he had to become a pull-up shooter and he had to learn his jumper more than getting to the rim, so he was more used to that. But it kind of works both ways. First, he was small. Then, he was weak. Either one is not a good combination when you’re getting inside. But now that he has the requisite size and frame, he’s got to put on more muscle. I trust his touch, that he’ll be able to get there. But right now, the biggest thing for him is making sure that he’s able to get in the lane and he’s a threat when he’s in the lane.”

Wizards officials believe finishing at the rim is a skill that can be developed. Carrington has time to build those skills.

“That’ll happen for him,” Scout C said. “Maybe he’s not going to be finishing above the rim in traffic, but he’s going to develop the craft needed to have a competent finishing package. He’s just not there yet. It’s all moldable with him.

It will be important for Carrington to add muscle to his 195-pound frame.

In the short term, though, he likely will encounter rough sledding, both on drives to the rim and with his defense. In the sequence below, 215-pound Cam Thomas finishes at the basket through Carrington, even though Carrington matched Thomas stride-for-stride.

“Right now, he’s light and he’s young,” Scout B said. “So, as his body matures, that’ll come. But not having great strength as a guard at this point, how does that impact him getting to the line, getting to the basket?”

Carrington finished the preseason with seven assists and 12 turnovers. But two of those turnovers could be attributed to a lack of familiarity on the pick-and-roll with centers Jonas Valančiūnas and Marvin Bagley III. Another two occurred when Carrington stepped on the sideline. And another happened in the preseason opener when rookie center Alex Sarr couldn’t catch a well-placed pass off a pick-and-roll.

“I always thought he was an underrated passer,” Scout D said of Carrington. “The passing is also going to unlock more of his ability to create his own shot and create for others as well.”

Carrington’s future

From the moment he was drafted, Carrington was certain to receive significant playing time as a rookie. But in the last month, two things have happened that could increase Carrington’s minutes further. First, guard Malcolm Brogdon tore a ligament in his right thumb during a training-camp practice, and the injury required surgery. After the preseason ended, the Wizards waived reserve point guard Jared Butler because the team was facing a roster crunch and because other candidates to be waived have guaranteed contracts that could be valuable in trades this season.

Carrington’s playing time could be a double-edged sword, Scout B said, especially since the Wizards are likely to lose a lot of games.

“He’s going to have the ball in his hands,” the scout said. “He’s going to have a lot of opportunity, which can be a good and a bad thing. You’re going to give him the ball. You’re going to let him run the show. So, how much structure surrounds that will be interesting, depending on who he’s on the floor with — Jordan Poole, Kuzma — that style of play.

“I think (Carrington) plays the right way, but it’s a long NBA season, and as it goes, for whatever reason some of these other guys (don’t). If Poole is out there jacking up shots and Kuzma is out there doing it and it becomes ISO ball and they’re not necessarily playing good team basketball, then you kind of worry that that’s (Carrington’s) experience and he struggles to find his way because he wants to play differently. Or does he change the way he plays based on what he sees other guys doing and being influenced? That’s the thing I would kind of worry about with him.”

This is the difficulty of trying to develop young players on a team that is positioning itself for the draft lottery: Offensive structure sometimes devolves, and veteran players start gunning to pad their own stats. But the ability to hold players accountable is one of the reasons Wizards executives decided to make Brian Keefe their head coach after he spent the second half of last season as the team’s interim coach.

Scout C is optimistic about Carrington’s future. Early struggles will occur, but that’s normal, especially for someone who spent only one year in college and was one of the youngest players in the 2024 draft class.

“He’s a sponge and he’s such a great kid, by all accounts,” Scout C said. “All that stuff’s going to come together pretty impressively for them because they’re going to have the chance to play him a lot. Rookie point guards, that’s a tough deal. But just his size and his skill level and his intangibles are just A+. All that stuff coming together is going to be fun to watch.”

(Photo of Bub Carrington and Jalen Brunson: Reggie Hildred / Imagn Images)