Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 1 prediction: World Series odds, picks, bets

Two No. 1 seeds and both of America’s biggest sports markets playing for a World Series might just be what the doctor ordered for baseball’s ratings plunge, though it makes for some tight betting lines. 

You can take either team for plus money on the run line in Friday’s Game 1 between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Yet, more than 80 percent of the handle is on the Dodgers, who took the regular-season series, 2-1, at Yankee Stadium in June. 

There’s going to be no shortage of power hitting in this series considering the teams lead the postseason in Weighted Runs Created Plus.

We especially witnessed the max potential of this Dodgers lineup in the NLCS, where it inundated the Mets staff for more than seven runs per game. 

The difference here is that while the Dodgers have been playing mercy ball through this postseason, the Yankees have been contending with clubs that were prided on deep pitching.

Their staff enters the World Series yielding 1.09 fewer earned runs than Dodgers pitching has. 

This hasn’t been the Gerrit Cole one would expect in the playoffs; he’s striking out nearly three fewer hitters per nine innings versus the regular season, though what Cole has done effectively is keep the ball inside the park, having allowed one home run in 16¹/₃ innings. 

Two of those starts were at Yankee Stadium — a park that joins Dodger Stadium as a top-three venue for home runs in 2024. 

Jack Flaherty has been taken to the whipping post by both the Padres and Mets in his three starts.

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Those are two teams two teams the Yankees outshined in batted ball metrics across the board. 

Flaherty was surely a reliable arm in a debilitated rotation through the regular season.

However, his exit velocity took a bump and his home/away splits indicate he was more vulnerable to contact at Dodgers Stadium. 

Taking into account the wealth of star power and postseason experience on both sides, the lines in this series are bound to zig-zag, so let’s follow the better value — and sharp money — to kick things off. 

THE PLAY: Yankees, +105 (BetMGM)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.