Fantasy Football ‘24: Week 9 fantasy preview— Start/sit and more

Welcome to Week 9, and Happy Halloween! Fantasy football has been a little like a haunted house this season. Each time I get a Sleeper or ESPN alert, I’m scared to look. Even practices are frightening, and I can’t remember a season where so many players who came out of the prior week “healthy” popped up on injury reports late in the week. As we head into the second half of the NFL season, a lot of fantasy lineups look very different than they did in Week 1. This happens each season, but it feels a little worse this year.

Injuries aren’t the only thing altering the fantasy landscape. Rookies (and other players) have emerged, while other players have faded or seen their roles diminished. Backup QBs have energized a few offenses, and there are defensive matchups that have gotten either more or less favorable as the season has progressed – in some cases by a lot.

I want to focus for a second on that last one. One of the metrics I like to use when evaluating matchups is fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed to each position, as it’s a good (albeit imperfect) measure of how generous or stingy defenses have been, in general. After eight weeks, the sample size is plenty big, but looking at raw numbers doesn’t show trends. Example: The Eagles, Lions, and Commanders were three of the very best passing game matchups for most of last season (put another way, they were among the very worst pass defenses), and they picked up right where they left off to start this season. That was then, and this is now. All three of these defenses have been much tougher matchups for opposing QBs and WRs of late. Take the Commanders for example. In the five games since Joe Burrow threw for 300+ yards and three TDs against them in Week 3, they’ve allowed just three TD passes total, and only one quarterback (Lamar Jackson, 323 yards) has thrown for more than 150 yards against them. On the flip side, the best passing game matchups right now are the Ravens, Jaguars, and Buccaneers. We’ll see if these trends continue. The point is that things change during the course of the season.

Stats of the Week:

Lions leave carcasses: Teams are 0-5 so far this season the week after playing Detroit.

Lamar Jackson is on pace to be the first QB to lead the NFL in passer rating and QB rushing yards in the same season since Steve Young in 1994.

Derrick Henry is on pace to become just the fourth running back in the Super Bowl era, and the first in more than 40 years, to lead the NFL in carries, yards, yards per carry, and rushing TDs in the same season. The other three are all Hall of Famers: O.J. Simpson (1975), Walter Payton (1977), and Earl Campbell (1980).

Kyren Williams has scored a TD in 10 straight games.

Khalil Shakir has been targeted 38 times this season and has 36 catches.

The Colts are a league-best 7-1 ATS, and the Panthers are the league-worst, at 1-7 ATS. All eight of the Colts’ games have been decided by six or fewer points.

NFL Tight Ends on Sunday collectively set all-time records for most catches and yards in a single day by TEs. It happened to be National Tight Ends Day, which has to be among the dumbest recognition days out there. No offense to Tight Ends.

Malik Nabers (73) and Wan’Dale Robinson (72) currently sit second and third in the NFL in targets, and Nabers missed two games with a concussion.

Guffaws of the Week:

Deshaun Watson has not thrown for 300 yards in any of his 18 starts for the Browns. Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston have combined for six 300-yard games in their seven starts for Cleveland over the last two seasons.

Anthony Richardson had 10 or fewer completions in four of his five starts and is completing a cover-your-eyes 44% of his passes. On Sunday, Richardson was 2-for-15 at the half. The Colts have announced that Joe Flacco is starting this week and beyond. More on that later.

The Yankees’ fifth inning on Wednesday. The horrors of Halloween came one night early for the Pinstripes. And that’s the last baseball reference for the year.

Streak of the Week:

The Panthers (27 consecutive games) and Giants (24 consecutive games) have the longest current streaks for not being favored in a game. These teams play each other in Munich next week. Germany, on behalf of the NFL, let me say es tut mir leid. I’m mentioning this now because one of these streaks is about to come to an end. Unless, of course, the game is a pick-‘em.

Week 9, here we go!

Bye Weeks: PIT, SF

Week 9 Rides, Fades and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Justin Jefferson, or George Kittle. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a decent showing in Week 8, but still not my best. A lot of the Sleepers hit, which is always fun. You can check my work here: Week 8 preview.

Ride of the Week:

Patrick Mahomes (vs. TB). Who? Oh yeah, that guy, who leads the NFL in INTs, has thrown a pick in every game, currently sits as the QB21, and hasn’t had a single weekly finish higher than QB14 this season. That guy? Yeah, and I’ll tell you why. He’s coming off his best game of the season for fantasy (19 points), and this week’s home matchup is as good as it gets. The Bucs’ pass defense has completely fallen apart in the past month, and on the season they’ve allowed the most total TDs (19) and FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Over their past four games, the only QB to not score at least 28 fantasy points on them was Spencer Rattler. Mahomes may not go off, but the Bucs are still fairly tough to run on and I think you can finally feel good about clicking him into your lineup, sitting back, and watching him cook. He’s ranked as the QB9 for the week and I think he’ll beat that.

Fade of the Week:

C.J. Stroud (@NYJ). Boo! When I talked in the opening about defenses that aren’t the same as they were earlier in the season, I could’ve mentioned the Jets, who were a nightmare matchup for quarterbacks and wide receivers in September, but suddenly aren’t so scary. Still, I think Stroud is a big Fade this week. The loss of Stefon Diggs is a big one with Nico Collins already out. Stroud had his worst game of the season in 2023 (10-23-91-0) when the Texans travelled to the Jets, and I think he’ll struggle against their defense again in this contest, with his weaponry depleted. For the season, the Jets have allowed the fifth fewest FPPG to QBs, but three weeks ago they sat first in that category, so like I said, it’s not as bad of a matchup as it appears on paper. The Jets’ season is on the brink of collapse, but with an easy schedule over the next month, they desperately need this game to have a puncher’s chance at a Wild Card.

Sleeper of the Week:

Xavier Worthy (vs. TB). Worthy is part of an impressive rookie class that’s likely to have more Top-36 wide receivers for the season than any in history. He’s been pretty boom-or-bust since he burst on the scene with two TDs (one rushing, one receiving) in Week 1. Injuries to the Chiefs’ top two WRs have opened the door for him to get more looks, and in each of the last two weeks he’s seen a season-high eight targets. He was able to turn those into just 7-56-1, but I like his chances to make some noise this week in Prime Time. The Bucs have been vulnerable to big plays and are Bottom-10 in catches, yards, and FPPG allowed to WRs, and they’ve been especially generous over the last month, as discussed above.

Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Quarterback:

Elite options this week – Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Kirk Cousins (vs. DAL). The losses of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence have really hurt Dallas’s defense, which has allowed the sixth most FPPG to quarterbacks and struggled with Brock Purdy last week even with San Francisco missing multiple weapons. On the flip side, Captain Kirk has been cooking, and he’s the QB4 over the last four weeks. Atlanta might run the stuffing out of the ball in this one, but there should still be enough on the plate to make Kirk an easy Top-10 play.

Sam Darnold (vs. IND). Has the bloom fallen off of the rose? After a torrid start, Darnold has cooled some, and his last two efforts (17 and 18 points) have been good but not great. He should finally have T.J. Hockenson back this week, and the great Justin Jefferson always helps his floor. I like him to get back above 20 fantasy points this week against a middling Colts’ defense that is allowing around 250 passing yards per game.

Matt Stafford (@SEA). I had Stafford as a Sleeper last week and he hit big against the Vikings. I think he’ll keep it going this week on the road against a vulnerable Seattle defense. Stafford is in the QB1 conversation whenever his starting receiver duo is healthy, and right now it is. More on them below.

Sleepers:

Derek Carr (@CAR). He should be back this week, and he gets a soft landing against a Panthers team that he throttled back in Week 1 (19-23-200-3-0). Carolina’s defense continues to be awful in every respect, and they’ve allowed the fourth most fantasy points and are tied for the most TD passes allowed (17) to opposing quarterbacks. He may not need to throw all that much, but in a battle of bad teams, he’s a nice sleeper choice if you’re stuck.

Other QBs ranked outside the Top-15 this week that I think can be started if needed (and especially as your second QB) include Bo Nix (@BAL) and Jameis Winston (vs. LAC).

Fades:

Baker Mayfield (@KC). Mayfield is the overall No. 2 player in fantasy this season, and managed a good game last week without his top two weapons. So this is a risky call, I know. That game was against the Falcons. The Chiefs are a tough defense across the board, and I think this is the week Baker comes down to earth.

Kyler Murray (vs. CHI). Let’s try this again. I’m a big Kyler fan and have him on a roster. I’m not a hater, but he’s a Fade for me for the third straight week and it’s all been matchup-based. He did well the last two weeks so take this with a grain of salt. The Bears are the #1 most difficult matchup for opposing quarterbacks. They’re tied for the fewest TD passes (five) and FPPG allowed to opposing QBs, and they’re Top-10 in interceptions with seven. Jayden Daniels is the only QB who has scored more than 16 fantasy points against them and it took a miracle play – a Hail Mary that didn’t even reach the end zone — for that to happen. I think the Bears will be fired up after that embarrassing lapse and it won’t be easy for Kyler.

Jordan Love (@DET). I don’t know if he’ll play, and especially with Green Bay’s Bye just a week away. If he does, groin injuries present a big re-injury risk, and I don’t know that he’ll have his usual mobility. As noted above, the Lions have been improving on defense and believe it or not, they’re now Top-10 in terms of fewest FPPG allowed to opposing QBs. I’m nervous about playing Love this week, if he does in fact start.

Trevor Lawrence (@PHI). Lawrence has been hot, but like Stroud, he’s going into this road game without some very important weapons. Christian Kirk is done for the season, and it sounds like Brian Thomas, Jr. is unlikely to play this week. Gabe Davis also left the team’s Week 8 game. I don’t know who besides Evan Engram will be catching passes for the Jaguars, and it’s not an easy matchup to boot. The Eagles have allowed the eighth fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa (@BUF). Happy Halloween to Miami’s QB. The Bills have been a house of horrors for Tua throughout his career, including back in Week 2 when he threw three INTs before getting concussed. Tua hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points in any of his last four starts vs. Buffalo, and the Bills have allowed the seventh fewest FFPG to opposing quarterbacks. There are too many red flags here.

Others: Lower-ranked QBs that I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week include Daniel Jones (vs. WAS), Bryce Young (vs. NO), and all QBs in the NE@TEN game.

Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images

Running Back:

Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, and Bijan Robinson; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (@GB). I said a while back that you can start both Lions’ RBs every week and not think about it. They’re both Top-10 RBs on the season right now, and literally everything the Lions are doing on offense is working. This game is a little hard to handicap because it’s unclear if Love is playing, but either way I expect the Lions to continue pounding the ball, in this case against a decent defense that’s a little worse vs the run than the pass.

Alvin Kamara (@CAR). Kamara has been chugging along as a mid-range RB2 since his 42-point fantasy explosion at Dallas in Week 2, but I think this will be a strong week for him. Derek Carr’s return will help the entire offense, and facing the Panthers is tasty. Kamara did fine against them in Week 1 (17 fantasy points), and their defense has slowly crumbled since then. On the season they’ve allowed the most carries, rushing TDs (13), and FPPG to opposing running backs, and the second most rushing yards. Kamara is a bright green-light special this week. He’s ranked as the RB9 this week and a Top-5 finish won’t surprise me in the least. Enjoy.

D’Andre Swift (@WAS). Swift did it again at the Commanders, and he’s now scored more than 19 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He’s got a great chance to make it five this week, against a Cardinals’ defense that allowed three total TDs to Miami’s backs last week, and is allowing the sixth most FPPG to opposing running backs on the season. The Bears’ offense is operating best when Swift is heavily involved (and when linemen aren’t getting the goal-line carries), and he should be a focal point again on Sunday.

Others ranked inside the Top-24 this week who I think can outperform their rankings are plentiful as it’s a good week for RBs: Joe Mixon (@NYJ) and in the same game, Breece Hall (vs. HOU), James Cook (vs. MIA), Aaron Jones (vs. IND), Tony Pollard (vs. NE), Kareem Hunt (vs. TB), Chuba Hubbard (vs. NO), and Brian Robinson, Jr. (@NYG).

Sleepers:

Tyler Allgeier (vs. DAL). The Cowboys are bad against the run and have allowed the second most FPPG to the position. I think Allgeier will get enough work in this game behind Bijan Robinson to warrant Flex consideration.

If you’re stuck this week, here are some other lower-ranked running backs (outside the Top-25) that I think you can put in lineups if needed: Raheem Mostert (@BUF), Austin Ekeler (@NYG), Devin Singletary (vs. WAS, and I don’t think Tyrone Tracy, Jr. will be cleared in time given that he suffered a concussion on Monday night), Ray Davis (vs. MIA), and Justice Hill (v. DEN).

Fades:

Javonte Williams (@KC). A week after putting up his best stat line of the season, Williams was a big disappointment against the Panthers’ terrible run defense. This week, the matchup is a problem and I’d look elsewhere. The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing defense, have held every opposing running back to no more than 52 yards, and have allowed the fifth-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs.

Nick Chubb (vs. LAC). Chubb is ramping up slowly, as expected, and has yet to show the stuff that made him truly special before his devastating knee injury last season. I don’t think this is the week to count on him being back to anything close to his normal self. The Chargers have yielded the fewest rushing TDs in the league (one), and the second fewest FPPG to the position.

Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne (@PHI). Etienne is expected back this week, clouding the situation in the Jacksonville backfield, and the work may be shared enough that neither player is all that fantasy-viable. With the receiver injuries they have, I think it will be even harder for the Jaguars to establish the run. The matchup is also a bad one, as the Eagles have allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing RBs and the second fewest rushing TDs to the position (two).

Bucky Irving and Rachaad White (@KC). It’s another two-fer! The Bucs have gotten very good production from their running backs, but I’m worried about them in this matchup. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest rushing yards and FPPG to opposing running backs. They’ve also been really good against RBs in the passing game, with just 27-210-0 surrendered in seven games. No running back has beaten them for even 14 fantasy points this season. Splitting the work just lowers the expectations even more.

Others: Raiders’ RBs (@CIN), Cowboys’ RBs (@ATL).

Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images

Wide Receiver:

Elite options this week – Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp (@SEA). Ride them both, as there should be plenty to go around. The Seahawks are easier to run on than to throw on, but their pass defense is still just middle of the pack and Nacua and Kupp are a lot to deal with when the whole offense is healthy. I think you’ll see this duo have another big game in an important divisional contest that has some sneaky shootout potential.

Chris Olave (@CAR). With Rasheed Shahid out for the season, Olave is the very clear No. 1 receiving option in the offense and now all he needs is to get his quarterback back, which should happen this week. Olave is coming off a big game (8-for-107 on 14 targets) with Spencer Rattler throwing, and he should keep it going against a Panthers’ defense that has allowed five straight No. 1 wide receivers to score double digit (and then some) fantasy points. Carolina is a Bottom-10 unit in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers, and Olave should outperform his WR18 ranking this week.

Josh Downs (@MIN). All of the Colts’ receivers get a decent bump with the QB switch, even if it might mean fewer 70-yard bombs. Downs has been targeted at least nine times in three of the last four games, and in the three games started by Joe Flacco earlier this season, he put up two Top-20 wide receiver finishes. Brian Flores’s defense has gotten a lot of big plays (sacks and INTs), but it has also been victimized through the air, with Matt Stafford’s 4-TD performance last week being the latest example. On the season, they’ve allowed the second most catches, third most yards and second most FPPG to opposing wide receivers. I think Downs will beat his WR20 ranking this week.

Other receivers ranked from 12-30 that I think should outperform their ranking this week include: DeVonta Smith (vs. JAC), D.J. Moore (@ARI), Davante Adams (vs. HOU), Darnell Mooney (vs. DAL), Ladd McConkey (@CLE), and Khalil Shakir (vs. MIA).

Sleepers (ranked outside the Top 30):

Jakobi Meyers (@CIN). The Bengals have been a pretty middle-of-the road defense, and it can’t all go to Brock Bowers. Meyers has been battling injuries but he’s the No. 1 wide receiver on the Raiders with Adams gone and they can’t run the ball. I think he makes for a nice upside play this week if you need him as your WR3 or Flex.

Courtland Sutton (@BAL). He’s ranked right near my sleeper cutoff and I think this is a good week to roll the dice with him. He’s coming off his first 100-yard game of the season (a week after putting up a donut, so yeah, there’s some real risk here and it’s why I’m listing him as a sleeper), Bo Nix is getting more comfortable, and the Ravens have been abominable against the pass. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards, TD catches (13) and FPPG to opposing WRs, and it’s not getting any better (just ask Jameis Winston, Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore). Denver likely will need to throw the ball more than they normally do in this one, so Sutton should see ample target volume.

Other WRs ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need: Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett (vs. LAR), Keon Coleman (vs. MIA), Xavier Legette (vs. NO), Jalen Tolbert (@ATL), Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore (vs. LAC), and Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. WAS).

Fades:

Zay Flowers (vs. DEN). There are a few factors that make me cautious about Flowers this week. First is the recent acquisition of Diontae Johnson. If he plays, I could see him siphoning off a few of the short-area targets that normally go the way of Flowers. The matchup is also concerning. Denver has not only allowed the fewest FPPG and TDs (four) to opposing WRs, but they’ve also had a knack for shutting down their opponents’ No. 1 receiver. Look for Baltimore’s backs and tight ends to be busy on Sunday.

Jaylen Waddle (@BUF). I hope I’m wrong on this one, but Waddle is tough to start right now. He hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 1, and while a lot of that has to do with Tua missing four games, he didn’t do much last week in Tua’s return. The Bills have allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing wide receivers and I see another struggle ahead for the talented Waddle.

Amari Cooper (vs. MIA). It’s a tough matchup (on paper anyway) vs. Miami’s fifth-ranked pass defense, and in two games Cooper has not established himself as the No. 1 wide receiver in Buffalo, and at his age maybe he won’t. He’ll probably have his big games from time to time, but I don’t think this is one of those times. I have him ranked behind both Shakir and Coleman this week.

More Fades: Jordan Addison (vs. MIN), Christian Watson (vs. DET, and frankly, if Malik Willis gets the start, then Jayden Reed is the only Packer WR I’d consider starting), Jerry Jeudy (vs. LAC), Patriots’ WRs (@TEN), and Bucs’ WRs (@KC).

Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Tight End:

Elite option this week – Travis Kelce (vs. TB), and Brock Bowers; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Kyle Pitts (vs. DAL). Sure, I’ll keep riding the hot hand. I’m not quite ready to list Pitts as elite, because he’s been among the most disappointing players in fantasy the past three seasons, and because he almost made the second dumbest play of Week 8. If you know, you know. He isn’t disappointing anyone this year, besides those who passed on drafting him. Dallas had all kinds of problems with another athletic, YAC tight end (George Kittle) last week.

Jake Ferguson (@ATL). I feel like Ferguson can now be relied on for very steady targets and production, week-in and week-out. Dallas can’t run the ball, so I’d expect Ferguson to be pretty involved at Atlanta. The Falcons are a Bottom-10 unit in defending TEs.

Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking: Evan Engram (@PHI) and Cade Otton (@KC).

Sleepers:

Isaiah Likely (vs. DEN). This is just a hunch, but I can see him being pretty involved this week, given how well Denver defends receivers.

Taysom Hill (@CAR). He’s way overdue for one of his crazy games, and the Saints are likely to score a lot of points, as they did when they faced Carolina in Week 1. He’s ranked outside the Top-25 this week and I think he’s worth a dart throw if you need a streamer or DFS longshot.

Noah Fant (@LAR). If D.K. Metcalf is out this week, I think you’ll see Fant get involved in the air attack. The Rams have allowed the most FPPG to opposing tight ends, so it’s the matchup you want.

Other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 that I think can be slotted in this week if needed: T.J. Hockenson (vs. IND, but he may be on a pitch count/rusty) and Mike Gesicki (vs. LV).

Fades:

Hunter Henry (@TEN). Even if Drake Maye is able to play, Henry is a tough choice this week, given the matchup. The Titans are the NFL’s top pass defense, and have allowed the eighth fewest FPPG to opposing tight ends.

Cole Kmet (@ARI). He’s just too boom-or-bust for me to recommend as a start. In seven games played he has two Top-2 weekly finishes, but the rest are all outside of the Top-15 for those weeks. Arizona has allowed just one TD to an opposing tight end in eight games.

Tucker Kraft (vs. DET). Speaking of boom-or-bust, may I present Tucker Kraft? The Lions have allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing tight ends, and just one TD catch. With Jordan Love iffy at best, I’d look elsewhere.

Zach Ertz (@NYG). The Giants haven’t done all that many things well this season, but defending opposing TEs is one of them. They’ve allowed the fewest FPPG and zero TDs to the position in eight games.

Other TE Fades (of players you could be considering): Tyler Conklin (vs. HOU) and Jonnu Smith (@BUF).

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12): See my Week 9 Waivers column.

I’m out. Good luck in Week 9!

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***