NFL picks, predictions against the spread Week 10: Commanders stop Steelers; 49ers, Jets get big road wins | Sporting News United Kingdom

The double-digit weeks of the 2024 NFL season are here. Week 10 marks the full-blown second half of the season, and every game becomes more important for all NFL teams — whether they’re in playoff contention or evaluation mode.

The stakes also get raised for Sporting News as we try to finish strong down the stretch with our picks and predictions against the spread.

More byes are here, leading to a 14-game slate to consider. Without further ado, let’s get into this week’s fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications.

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NFL picks against the spread for Week 10

•  Bengals at Ravens (-6, 52.5 o/u)

Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video

The Bengals are humming along with their passing game with Joe Burrow playing at an MVP level despite their 4-5 start. Lamar Jackson is performing like he wants to repeat at MVP, however, and both of these teams have enough defensive issues to think both QBs will have big games. It comes down to more diverse weapons and the better power running game, and that late-game advantage goes to Baltimore at home in prime time.

Pick: Ravens win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: Lamar Jackson ties record for most perfect passer ratings

• Game of the Week: Steelers at Commanders (-2.5, 45.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Steelers want to build a lead with some big pass plays from Russell Wilson, run the ball effectively with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and let T.J. Watt tee off on defense. The problem is that the Commanders’ offensive line can control the action with the rushing attack and has the added wrinkle of Jayden Daniels’ elusive scrambling. Wilson will be contained with the deep ball by Dan Quinn’s defense as Washington wins the game up front.

Pick: Commanders win 23-20 and cover the spread.

WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
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• Lock of the Week: Chargers (-7.5, 38 o/u) over Titans

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Chargers like to rip into inferior opponents with limited offenses. Their defense can dominate a lesser AFC team for a second straight week, causing problems with pressure and coverage after stopping the run. Justin Herbert is heating up and JK Dobbins won’t be cooling down back home as Jim Harbaugh’s team surges toward the AFC playoffs.

Pick: Chargers win 34-14 and cover the spread.

MORE: NFL playoff picture through Week 9

• Upset of the Week: Saints (+3.5, 47.5 o/u) over Falcons

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Saints fired their former coach, Dennis Allen, after losing to the Panthers on the road. They should be fired up with interim coach  Darren Rizzi at home to face their NFC South archrivals. That includes playing inspired special teams, Rizzi’s specialty. Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, and the veteran leaders on defense will turn in a winning effort that doesn’t hurt the Falcons’ chances of cruising in the division too much in the end. Expect plenty of Falcons killer Taysom Hill to make the difference.

Pick: Saints win 24-21.

MORE FALCONS: Drake London injury update | Drake London celebrates TD with viral headstand

MORE SAINTS: Chris Olave injury update | Michael Thomas rips Derek Carr for pass leading to Olave injury

• Giants (-4.5, 41.5 o/u) vs. Panthers

Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network (in Munich, Germany)

Daniel Jones keeps going up and down as a veteran starting QB for New York, win or lose. Bryce Young might have bought an extended second-year look for Carolina. Jones, however, will face less of a pass rush overseas here than Young. He will have better receiving support and use his athleticism to his veteran advantage.

Pick: Giants win 24-17 and cover the spread.

• Patriots at Bears (-6.5, 39.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft, was outdueled by the No. 2 pick, Daniels, on a game-winning Hail Mary on the road two weeks ago. Williams will try to move to 3-0 at home against Drake Maye, the No. 3 overall pick. Chicago and London are the only sites of Bears’ wins this season, as they are a much better young home team for Matt Eberflus. They should also get back on track with the running game and overall defense, although Maye and the inspired Patriots can make it tough for four quarters.

Pick: Bears win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: Is Matt Eberflus on the hot seat? | Caleb Williams injury news

• Bills (-4.5, 47 o/u) at Colts

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Buffalo can steamroll Indianapolis with the running game, as backs James Cook and Ray Davis can get hot to support Josh Allen’s powerful scrambling. The Colts are struggling with giving up big pass plays to big-armed QBs, which also works in Allen’s favor. Jonathan Taylor is the only way the hosts can hang around in the game, which won’t be for long once the Bills can pin their ears back vs. Joe Flacco.

Pick: Bills win 27-13 and cover the spread.

MORE: Shane Steichen commits to Joe Flacco as starting QB despite lifeless outing vs. Vikings

• Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5, 42 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Broncos got blitzed in Baltimore by a better team with a savvy offense, and facing the reigning AFC finalists on the road in consecutive weeks is brutal. Patrick Mahomes loves seeing and picking apart Denver, and he’ll keep getting help from his running game. Bo Nix will have another rough go in a one-dimensional attack vs. a strong pass defense.

Pick: Chiefs win 30-14 and cover the spread.

MORE: NFL playoff picture through Week 9

• 49ers (-6.5, 48 o/u) at Buccaneers

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers will be healthier after a bye, hoping to have Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings back to add some pop to the passing game with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Brock Purdy will be locked in to exploit a beatable secondary all over the field. The 49ers’ defense will fix some things and attack Baker Mayfield well, but he’ll be feisty and fiery enough on a short week to take care of the backdoor home cover.

Pick: 49ers win 27-22 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: Christian McCaffrey injury update

• Vikings (-4, 46 o/u) at Jaguars

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

This is a terrible spot for Jacksonville. Minnesota’s pass rush will be fearless in getting after Trevor Lawrence, as the Jaguars won’t run enough or well enough early and are down a key weapon to beat their defense in Christian Kirk. The Vikings should have no trouble getting Justin Jefferson to explode downfield for Sam Darnold, but this is a game to also get Kevin O’Connell’s supporting pass-catchers to go off, too.

Pick: Vikings win 30-20 and cover the spread.

MORE: Why Travon Walker’s controversial return TD wasn’t overturned by replay

• Eagles (-7, 42.5 o/u) at Cowboys

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Both offenses are set to be short key pieces. Jalen Hurts may be without wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and tight end Dallas Goedert (hamstring). The Cowboys have no sympathy with Dak Prescott (hamstring) out and CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) hurting. Cooper Rush is charged with saving what’s left of Dallas’ season for a while. He’ll be game to spark the offense a little at home, but Philadelphia can get methodical later with Hurts and Saquon Barkley on the ground to put away the rivalry road game.

Pick: Eagles win 24-23 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE EAGLES:
Nick Sirianni calls Saquon Barkley’s hurdle ‘best play [he’s] ever seen’ | A.J. Brown injury update

MORE COWBOYS:
Dak Prescott injury update | CeeDee Lamb injury update | Will Cowboys make playoffs? | Jerry Jones talks deadline deals

• Jets at Cardinals (-1, 46 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Jets have had a mini-bye to build on their potential late run into the AFC playoff race. They got Aaron Rodgers going last week with his top wide receivers and can also lean on Breece Hall for additional offensive juice. Kyler Murray rode the running game and defense to a big home win over the Bears, but he’ll be pushed into passing more with Rodgers, a duel he won’t win vs. the Jets’ pass defense.

Pick: Jets win 27-17.

MORE: Garrett Wilson’s incredible one-handed catch | Malachi Corley channels DeSean Jackson with goal-line fumble

• Lions (-3, 49 o/u) at Texans

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

The Lions can contain the best asset in the Texans’ offense, which is the running game with Joe Mixon. C.J. Stroud will face some heat again, and he needs wide receiver Nico Collins back badly to get the passing game on track. Houston has played a lot of close games and has the talent to hang in there with Sunday night home emotions at play, but Detroit is becoming more difficult to beat each week. The running backs and Amon-Ra St. Brown tilt the game to the visitors.

Pick: Lions win 27-20 and cover the spread.

MORE LIONS: Explaining Brian Branch’s controversial ejection | Amon-Ra St. Brown celebrates TD with viral headstand

MORE TEXANS: Will Anderson Jr. injury update

• Dolphins at Rams (-2.5, 50.5 o/u)

Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Dolphins aren’t that same dangerous passing game with Tua Tagovailoa. They are counting a ton on the running and receiving of second-year De’Von Achane to set the tone for the offense. The Rams can keep Tagovailoa compressed with a rising young pass rush and scheme up some tougher coverage looks for him. On the other side, the Rams can pound through Miami with Kyren Williams and burn them everywhere with Cooper Kupp and expanded impact receiving corps for Matthew Stafford.

Pick: Rams win 24-20 and cover the spread.

MORE: Puka Nacua shocked over ejection for throwing punch vs. Seahawks

Stats of the Week

• Week 9 record straight up: 10-5
• Week 9 record against the spread: 7-8
• Season-to-date straight up: 94-46
• Season-to-date against the spread: 72-65