Winter Storm Alert: Heavy snow could hit PA, NY before Thanksgiving travel rush

NEW YORK – A potent winter storm system is set to hit parts of New York state, bringing the potential for heavy snow as millions of people prepare to travel ahead of the busy Thanksgiving holiday.

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While travel will peak next week, some people have decided to hit the roads and pack airports early, hoping to beat the holiday rush. AAA said a potentially record-breaking 80 million people are expected to travel more than 50 miles from home this year.

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The Transportation Security Administration said it too was preparing for what could be the busiest Thanksgiving travel period on record.

The FOX Forecast Center said that after an extended period of dry and tranquil weather across the Northeast, rain, and even some snow, will roll in.

The area of low pressure is expected to spin across the region through the rest of the workweek and into the weekend, resulting in rain and snow.

Some parts of the Northeast will likely only see rain from the event, but the higher elevations and locations directly under the cold upper low-pressure system may see heavy snow.

Will it snow this week?

Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills will see the heaviest snow, with up to a foot falling in the higher elevations there. Since Wednesday, Winter Storm Watches have expanded to include more areas of New York state.

This graphic shows active winter weather alerts in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. (FOX Weather)

The National Weather Service office in Binghamton warned of a potential “high-impact winter storm” in its forecast discussion on Wednesday. On Thursday morning, forecasters warned about the potential for heavy snow.

“Expect a rain/snow mix tonight with snow accumulating in the highest elevations to the northwest,” FOX 5 NY’s Mike Woods said in a post on X, formally Twitter. “The wet weather will end by the weekend.”

How much snow are we getting Thursday?

The NWS said there are strong signals that banding could move into Sullivan County that could track along Interstate 86 through the overnight hours toward Broome County. 

“Snowfall rates under the band have the potential to be 1-3+ inches per hour for several hours,” the NWS said.

This graphic shows the forecast snow totals in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. (FOX Weather)

Computer forecast models are also showing certain areas in Pennsylvania and New York could see a foot or more of snow.

Pennsylvania snow forecast

Meanwhile, the FOX Forecast Center said impactful snow is also expected through the Allegheny Mountains through the end of the week due to a longer-duration favorable upslope snow setup.

Winter Storm Watches also expanded to include more areas of Pennsylvania, while Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for other areas of the state.

While this week’s forecast doesn’t show any snowfall likely for NYC, FOX 5 NY’s Nick Gregory predicts the city could receive around 20 inches of snow this winter, compared to the typical seasonal average of 28 inches. 

“We’ll likely have above average temperatures this winter along with more snow than last year, with somewhere near 18-23″, but that is below the average snowfall for a winter in NYC,” Gregory said.

Meanwhile, the lower Hudson Valley could see slightly more snowfall, with totals ranging between 20 and 25 inches, with more snowfall further north. Much of the winter may bring a mix of rain and snow along the coast, with heavier snow falling further north.

When will it snow in NYC?

Historically, the first measurable snow (accumulation of one inch or more) tends to fall in the NYC area around Dec. 13. The earliest measurable snowfall was on October 29, 2011, when 2.9 inches fell days before Halloween.

When is the first day of winter?

Winter officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere on Dec. 21 with the winter solstice – the day with the least amount of possible daylight and the longest night.

Forecast rain totals in the Northeast should remain in the 1-2 inches range, although locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches or more are possible in some areas.

This graphic shows forecast rain totals in the Northeast. (FOX Weather)

NYC weather radar

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