Noel’s Weekend Winners: Best Bets for New York Stallion Series at Aqueduct

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel’s selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA’s SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1.25 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

The fall season at Aqueduct is loaded with good racing and wagering and this weekend will be no exception. Saturday’s nine-race program at Aqueduct will be headlined by a pair of New York-bred stakes races going seven furlongs on the main track, the New York Stallion Series Staten Island Series Staten Island Division for fillies and mares and the Thunder Rumble Division for colts and geldings. For this weekend’s winners, let’s use a variety of logical contenders but leave out the favorites. If we can pick the winners and beat the chalk, we could have a big day at the Big A this Saturday. Best of luck.

Saturday, Nov. 23

Aqueduct, Race 7, $125,000 New York Stallion Series Staten Island Division, post time 3:08 p.m. ET

The New York Stallion Series Staten Island division has drawn a field of seven New York-bred fillies and mares ready to battle it out at seven furlongs. The morning-line favorite in the race is #7 Athena Beach, and while she has a chance to win, she couldn’t hold on going shorter at 6 ½ furlongs last time out and there appear to be other options in this field that offer better value. #4 Brown Suga Babe has been in tremendous form since September with three wins by open lengths in her last four races including two wins here at Aqueduct going one mile. She exits a 2 ¾-length win here last time, and she’s the one to beat if seven furlongs is enough real estate for her to work with. I see no reason why not. #2 Sunday Girl and #3 Khali Magic have speed and will both be giving Athena Beach fits up on or close to the lead in a pace scenario that benefits Brown Suga Babe. Either Sunday Girl or Khali Magic should be able to hold on well enough for a spot in the exacta.

The Play: Bet on #4 Brown Suga Babe (4-1) to win and play her in exacta boxes with #2 Sunday Girl (9-2) and #3 Khali Magic (7-2).

Aqueduct, Race 8, $125,000 New York Stallion Series Thunder Rumble Division, post time 3:38 p.m. ET

The New York Stallion Series Thunder Rumble Division brings together a field of eight New York breds set to go seven furlongs for a purse of $125,000. Let’s go all-in and all-out in this spot to try to beat vulnerable morning-line favorite #6 Antonio of Venice, who will be heavily bet based on his form from seven months ago. No thanks. He’s returning from the sidelines at a short price for a barn that has won with only one of its last 23 runners returning from more than a six-month layoff. Instead, let’s focus our bets on a much more likely winner, #3 Doc Sullivan, who has been one of the two best New York-bred 3-year-olds of this year after his win in the $121,000 Mike Lee Stakes and second-place finishes in the $159,000 New York Derby and $242,000 Albany Stakes, which were two-turn routes. The Mike Lee win was at seven furlongs and he should benefit from returning to the distance in this race. For the exactas and trifectas, let’s leave out Antonio of Venice and go for better prices. #8 General Banker was not embarrassed last time when mid-pack in the $250,000 Empire Classic at a distance that was too far for him, but his recent Beyer Speed Figures have been consistently high, and he fits in this spot based on his allowance win on this track against open company two races ago. #5 Light Man is also a terrific pick in this spot. While Doc Sullivan has been focusing mostly on longer races, Light Man has been one of the best NY-bred sprinters this year and exits a win in the $150,000 Hudson Stakes at 6 ½ furlongs on New York Showcase Day. He can be officially considered an Aqueduct horse for the course with four wins and a second in his five career outings at this track so far.

The Play: Bet #3 Doc Sullivan (5-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #5 Might Man (9-2) and #8 General Banker (7-2).