Illinois vs. Alabama prediction: College basketball picks, odds, best bets Wednesday

The No. 25 Illinois Fighting Illini take on the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide on Wednesday night in yet another early-season titanic clash.

Alabama hopes to bounce back after a tough road loss to the Purdue Boilermakers, while the new-look Fighting Illini team looks to improve to a hot 4-0 start.

Which team has the edge in this top-25 matchup?

Illinois vs. Alabama odds

Illinois vs. Alabama prediction

When Mark Sears announced his return to Tuscaloosa in the offseason, it was evident that the Alabama Crimson Tide were in for another successful year.

Sears joined Latrell Wrightsell Jr, Jarin Stevenson, Grant Nelson and Mo Dioubate as key returners from the 2023-24 squad that made the Final Four.

Then, ‘Bama brought in even more talent in transfers Aden Holloway, Cliff Omoruyi and Chris Youngblood, and recruits like five-star big man Derrion Reid and fringe five-stars Aiden Sherrell and Labaron Philon.

Meanwhile, Illinois has had a massive roster turnover, losing its top eight players from last year to graduation, the transfer portal or the NBA.

Still, the Fighting Illini brought in enough talent, particularly in the frontcourt, to be a contender in the Big Ten.

We can expect a fast-paced, high-octane game between two elite offensive attacks.

However, Bama is a much more potent and deep team that will run Illinois and its frontcourt-heavy roster to death, resulting in a double-digit blowout win.

Illinois vs. Alabama pick

If this game had been played last season, the Fighting Illini would have been in a much better position to sneak out a road victory, but that is not the case.

Alabama’s frontcourt addition of glass-crashing, rim-protecting big man Omoruyi will make all the difference in games like these.

Last year, the Crimson Tide had to lean on Grant Nelson to play the five, which is not his natural position. 

In turn, they often struggled to defend the paint and pull down an adequate number of rebounds, resulting in a team that ranked 253rd in defensive rebounding percentage, 111th in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) and 197th in opponent two-point percentage.

Betting on College Basketball?

While this season’s squad has slightly less floor spacing overall and one fewer 3-point shooter on the court at all times (Omoruyi is a non-threat from deep and Nelson is streaky from the 3-point line), Bama is in a much better position to beat teams with dominant frontcourts like Illinois now.

We should see the Crimson Tide lean into their advantage in speed and transition, resulting in a fast-paced game that ultimately favors them, as they rank 17th in adjusted tempo.

Further, some positive shooting regression should be expected after generating a bountiful number of open 3-point attempts in their game against Purdue. Their shots simply weren’t falling.

I’ll back Alabama at home in what will be a perfect bounce-back spot.

THE PICK: Alabama -8.5 (-110, bet365)

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Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.