NFL Pro: Top three fantasy mismatches in Week 12 of 2024 season

In the battle of the Harbaugh brothers, all eyes should be on Justin Herbert. Herbert, who is playing risk-free football with a 13:1 TD to INT ratio, has led the Chargers to five wins in their last six games. Herbert’s confidence is rising as is his volume. Since Week 7, Herbert has thrown 32-plus pass attempts in four of six games and has been involved on designed QB runs, becoming a dual threat. That has kept defenses honest, allowing Herbert to increase his play action rate from 27% to 34.1% since the Bolts’ Week 5 bye.

But Herbert’s arm is still his greatest gift. Herbert has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions while tallying the second-most passing yards on deep passes (20+ air yards). And his Week 12 opponent struggles to cover the deep ball. Baltimore’s 32nd-ranked pass defense has allowed the second-most yards (634) and is tied for the most TDs (7) given up on deep passes. Per NFL Pro, the Bolts hold key advantages over the Ravens in all 12 passing categories. 

John Harbaugh’s defense ranks No. 31 overall in passing TDs (22 allowed) and deep passing. Opposing offenses have noticed and are attacking through the air with a 65.2% pass play percentage, the second-highest share in the NFL. Expect Jim Harbaugh to follow suit and unleash “Beast Herbert” in what will likely become an offensive slugfest. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Herbert’s success on deep passes this season.)

Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com’s Matt Okada)

Over the past month, Justin Herbert has come alive in the Los Angeles offense, averaging 255.5 passing yards per game with seven touchdowns, zero interceptions and 21.9 fantasy points per game. He just tagged the Bengals — the fourth-best fantasy matchup for QBs in 2024 — for 24.4 points and now draws the Ravens … one of the three better matchups on paper. Prior to a strong game against the Steelers, Baltimore had allowed 26.1 fantasy points per game to the QB position over the prior six weeks. Herbert has the makings of the QB1 overall in Week 12.