Three thoughts on the Utah Jazz’s 121-106 win over the New York Knicks from Salt Lake Tribune Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. Lauri Markkanen, on the move
I think there were some minor worries from the box score watchers about Lauri Markkanen’s season to this point. After all, he was down to 18.8 points per game coming into Saturday’s game, a dropoff from the 25-point and 23-point seasons he’d had before. Add in some back injury concerns and it might have been easy to worry about a decline, just as the Jazz had given him a huge extension.
I think those who had watched the games, though, and really examined what was different about Markkanen’s 2024-25 season were probably less concerned. Defenses have been largely literally ball-denying him on the defensive end, sometimes just allowing the rest of the Jazz to play four-on-four elsewhere. Most of the time you’ll take that, but the Jazz’s starters have been inconsistent offensively, so it wasn’t great for Utah’s offense.
The Jazz also used him differently early in the season compared to now. Early in the season, they were using him as a screener a lot, getting the switch, and then trying to have him score from the elbow on a mismatch. The idea was to work on that aspect of Markkanen’s development, which they think will be useful in the playoffs. Teams could just send help on that, relying on Markkanen’s biggest weakness — passing.
Now, they’re having him move off the ball much more. He’s coming off the screens off the ball — or a lot of time, just threatening to. He has the ball in his hands for much less time, instead usually catch and shooting or catch and driving immediately.
Tonight: 34 points on 11-15 shooting. It’s honestly very fun to watch when he has it cooking like tonight — and hugely efficient, too.
2. Walker Kessler, difference maker
Walker Kessler had missed six games with hip bursitis, and the Jazz’s defense had predictably suffered as a result. He came back into the fold on Saturday, and immediately things were much better:
• The Jazz allowed just a 103.9 offensive rating from the Knicks, the Jazz’s best defensive performance of the season and the Knicks’ worst offensive performance of the season, according to Cleaning The Glass.
• Even better, in half-court situations, they allowed just a 69.7 offensive rating from the Knicks — absolutely elite.
• This was mostly because the Knicks shot just 11 shots at the rim all game long, one of the lowest totals in the NBA this season.
Jazz fans know this well from the Rudy Gobert era: it’s just absolutely massive what an impact a top-tier rim protector can have on a game. Kessler is that — among players who defend at least five shots per game at the rim, Kessler has the third-best field-goal percentage differential on those shots, behind only Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama.
He’s not as offensively talented as those guys, but I do think he gives the Jazz their best rim-rolling threat on offense. It’s something the Knicks clearly worried about today, and I think it played a role in the Jazz getting open threes.
“Obviously he’s a big target down there on the block, and he’s understanding that too, that he’s a big target,” Markkanen said. “So people are swarming him when he gets to the basket, and he’s smart enough to make those reads.”
It’s been a big bounceback year for Kessler, which was so important after struggling as much as he did in his second year.
3. On the tank race — and an early eye on draft positioning
As will be the case all year, though, the win did come with a cost: it pushed the Jazz into a tie for fourth place in the tank race. From Tankathon:
You’d normally have to figure Philadelphia and New Orleans will get more healthy at some point and reboot their seasons, but with each passing day, there’s simply the possibility that their teams will choose to shut Joel Embiid or Zion Williamson completely down for the season, leaving open new competitors for the spot.
But as it stands, the Jazz finishing fourth in the tank race would actually make their most likely landing spot the No. 6 overall pick. Thanks to finishing outside of the top three, they’d have an 11.5% chance at Cooper Flagg, but a 27.1% chance at No. 6 and an 18% chance at No. 7.
Those No. 6 and No. 7 picks are currently slated to be either Duke’s Kon Knueppel or BYU’s Egor Demin in ESPN’s most recent mock draft. Those are going to be good players — I think there’s a real chance they might have gone in the top three of the 2024 draft — but they simply aren’t quite in the stratosphere the way Flagg or Ace Bailey are.
How New Orleans and Philadelphia respond to their early season difficulties, plus how teams like Washington, Toronto, Portland, and Brooklyn, eke out wins or losses at this point of the season is one of the most critical elements of this Jazz season from a long term point of view.
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