Thanksgiving travel in Upstate NY: Rain to start, lake effect snow over the weekend

Syracuse, N.Y. — Getting to the family dinner on Thanksgiving Day shouldn’t be bad across most of Upstate New York, but coming home over the weekend could be treacherous in lake effect snow areas.

When the first wave of the storm system moves from the Plains into Upstate New York Thursday, temperatures in valleys and along the I-90 corridor should be warm enough to generate rain but little snow.

Temperatures on Thanksgiving should be relatively mild, with highs in the low 40s across must of Upstate, according to the National Weather Service.

In the hilltops of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill plateau, there could be some wet snow on Thanksgiving, mostly at elevations over 1,800 feet, the weather service said.

The weather pattern changes dramatically Thursday night as a cold front pours in, bringing the coldest temperatures of the year so far. For the weekend, high temperatures will barely nudge past freezing, if at all.

And that cold air will blow across the warm Great Lakes, generating what the weather service says could be the first significant lake effect snow of the season.

For Friday and the early part of the weekend, winds will likely come from the west, keeping the lake effect snow confined to Tug Hill and western Southern Tier. More than 7 inches of snow could fall in those areas, the weather service said.

Winter storm watches will be in effect Friday through Monday morning in Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus counties and the southern half of Erie county in Western New York and for Oswego, Jefferson and Lewis counties on Tug Hill.

Winds could generate lake effect snow from the Upper Great Lakes as well as lakes Erie and Ontario.

“The potential exists for a significant, long-duration lake effect snow event,” the weather service said. “Travel could be very difficult to impossible with very poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads.”

As the weekend progresses and turns into early next week, winds are expected to shift and blow from the northwest. That could bring heavy lake effect snow to Rochester and Syracuse, and as far south as Oneonta.

It’s too early to day exactly where the snow will fall and how much. Lake effect snow bands can be narrowly and highly dependent on wind direction, which is difficult to predict several days ahead of time.