Timberwolves-Knicks preview, betting line, key matchups in KAT’s return

Thursday night’s nationally-televised game between the 14-11 Timberwolves and the 16-10 Knicks (8:30 p.m. central, TNT) has quite a bit more juice to it than a typical NBA regular season matchup.

These two teams were coming off of exciting playoff runs — the Wolves made the Western Conference Finals and the Knicks were one win away from the Eastern Conference Finals — and were gearing up to run it back when Tim Connelly and Leon Rose swung a blockbuster trade mere weeks before the start of the season. In a move that stunned many, Karl-Anthony Towns went to New York for a package centered around Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.

Now the two remodeled rosters will face off in the regular season for the first time since the trade, with Towns making his highly-anticipated return to Target Center. After nine years as one of the Wolves’ franchise players, KAT will play in Minneapolis as a visitor for the first time. It’s inevitably going to be an emotional night. Towns figures to get a warm welcome.

On the court, this promises to be a fascinating matchup. The last time these two teams faced off was in a preseason game at Madison Square Garden less than two weeks after the trade was made official. You may remember that things got feisty between DiVincenzo and Knicks assistant coach Rick Brunson in that one. This time, it actually counts in the standings, and both teams will undoubtedly come in with playoff-like levels of motivation to leave with a victory.

The Wolves and Knicks have both been playing well lately. Minnesota has won six of its last seven games after starting 8-10, led by a defense that has been utterly dominant during this stretch. New York has gone 11-4 since a 5-6 start.

It’ll be a matchup of strength on strength when the Knicks have the ball. They’re third in the league in offensive rating and the Wolves are fourth in defensive rating. On the other end, the Wolves are 19th on offense and the Knicks are 16th on defense. By net rating, these are two of the top eight teams in the NBA (NY is fifth, MIN is eighth).

The starting lineups will probably determine this one. The Knicks’ starting five of Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and Towns has played 439 minutes together this season, which is easily the most of any five-man lineup in the NBA (classic Tom Thibodeau). The Wolves’ starting five — Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Randle, and Rudy Gobert — is third with 297 minutes. To put that into context, the Rockets and Hawks have the only other five-man lineups with at least 200 minutes shared this season (as of Wednesday afternoon).

The Wolves have a slight on-paper advantage with their depth — the benches are basically DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker against Miles McBride, Precious Achiuwa, and Cameron Payne — but they’ll have to find a way to slow down the Knicks’ starting five.

Sportsbooks view this one as essentially a toss-up. Minnesota opened as 2-point home favorites, but that’s down to 1.5 points at some places.

How will Towns fare against Gobert?

When the Wolves acquired Gobert in Connelly’s first blockbuster trade in July 2022, Towns had to move from his usual center position over to power forward to accommodate one of the NBA’s best defensive big men. It was a big change, but one he handled without complaint. Once the two gelled, they helped lead a dominant defense on a team that reached the WCF. Now they’ll face off for the first time since Gobert was with the Jazz.

KAT has been outstanding so far in his Knicks tenure. Back at center, he comes into this game averaging 24.8 points, a league-leading 13.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on basically 53/44/85 shooting splits. But Gobert remains an elite defender, so this matchup could present challenges for Towns. It’ll also be interesting to see how he manages his emotions. He’ll want to have a big game in his return to Minneapolis, but could that lead to him forcing things on the offensive end?

Which lead guard has a bigger game?

The ball will spend a lot of time in the hands of Edwards and Brunson, who were both second team All-NBA selections last season. Ant’s averaging a career-high 26.2 points and leads the NBA with 108 three-pointers on a 42.4 percent clip. Brunson’s scoring is down slightly due to KAT’s presence, but he’s still averaging 25 points and 7.7 assists per night on outstanding efficiency. Both are among the league’s most dangerous bucket-getters, capable of going for 40 on any given night. And while they’ll end up 1-on-1 at times, they’ll often be guarded by the opponent’s best perimeter defender (Anunoby for the Knicks, McDaniels for the Wolves).

Who are some X-factors?

McDaniels, who Chris Finch said has been playing “out of this world” lately, is always an X-factor for Minnesota. Same with Anunoby on the other end. They’re elite defenders, but when they’re also scoring, they take their respective teams to another level. The same is true of Bridges, the other player the Knicks gave up a lot to acquire via trade this offseason. He’s very dangerous as a secondary scorer.

It’s worth mentioning Randle, who will have all kinds of motivation to play well against his old team, even if he isn’t admitting it. He’s averaging 20, 7, and 4 for the Wolves, though his stickiness on offense and lapses on defense have made him somewhat inconsistent thus far. If he’s locked in and making shots, his three-level scoring ability is a difference-maker. But he has to be able to move the ball and avoid forcing things.

Lastly, keep an eye on the Wolves’ three starting-caliber bench players. DiVincenzo has struggled from deep this season at 32 percent, but he’s not going to stop firing. Reid is a human highlight reel, though he’s been cold from the field lately. Alexander-Walker has been one of Minnesota’s best and most consistent players all season long, sometimes forcing his way into closing lineups with his effectiveness.

This should be a fun one.