Race to No. 1: Giants, Raiders hold commanding lead for top NFL Draft pick

As we head through Week 16, the race for the No. 1 overall pick continues to thin out. Just six teams sit at three wins or fewer this season, and only four have a realistic chance to secure the top spot in the 2025 NFL Draft.

An upset overtime victory by the Carolina Panthers all but puts them out of the running for the first pick. And while the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars remain three-win teams, the fact they’ll play each other in Week 17 coupled with the additional help needed gives both a less-than-one-percent chance of securing the top selection.

The odds continue to huddle around the two two-loss teams: the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. The Athletic’s model now gives these two teams a combined 88 percent chance to secure the pick.

New York Giants (2-13)

New York’s odds continue to rise, having a better-than-50-percent chance to secure the No. 1 pick for the first time this season. The way the Giants are currently playing, it’s no surprise the team remains in the top spot in our projections. This Sunday’s game saw Drew Lock threw two pick sixes to the Falcons defense and Atlanta had its highest-scoring game since October. The Giants’ consistently poor quarterback play lessons the possibility of New York potentially pulling off a win the next two weeks. The Giants are averaging just 11.8 points per game and 257.4 yards per game since releasing Daniel Jones in Week 10, both the lowest marks in the league over that span.

Remaining schedule: Indianapolis Colts, at Philadelphia Eagles

Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

The Raiders had their odds ascend from 31 percent last week to 35 percent, this week, by virtue of their competition thinning out and the increased likelihood that a two-win team locks up the top spot. That being said, the Raiders might be a team to monitor later on in the day. Las Vegas entered halftime leading the Jaguars 13-7 in their afternoon game.

Remaining schedule: at New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers

New England Patriots (3-11)

The Patriots’ odds continue to fall — down from 10 percent last week. New England needs help if it hopes to secure a top pick, and the window to get it continues to close. Help might not be enough if the Pats hold onto their 14-7 halftime lead over the Buffalo Bills. Another win on their resume would all but remove them from the running.

Remaining schedule: Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills

Cleveland Browns (3-12)

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Cleveland remains the only other team with odds above one percent. The Browns also remain one of the more volatile teams in this conversation. Myles Garrett became the youngest-ever player to hit 100 career sacks this Sunday, Jerry Jeudy is a 1,000-yard receiver and David Njoku returned from injury. Even if they received the help necessary to even the playing field, there is a decent chance Cleveland finds a way to win a game over the next two weeks to take itself out of the running.

Remaining schedule: Miami Dolphins, at Baltimore Ravens

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(Photo: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)