New York political predictions for 2025

Next year promises to be rife with political intrigue, competitive elections, power struggles and big policy decisions.

In 2025, another competitive New York City mayoral race will come to a head – one in which Mayor Eric Adams battles not only a slew of challengers, but also a sweeping federal indictment. New York will contend with another Donald Trump presidency after he takes office in January. All the citywide offices will be on the ballot in November as well. And state lawmakers will grapple with ongoing affordability issues, spurring housing production, addressing the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s grim financial outlook, and much more.

We reached out to well-informed consultants and political experts to get some early insights into what they expect to happen in 2025. The responses have been edited for length and clarity.

Who will be elected New York City mayor? Why?

Ben Max, executive editor of the Center for New York City and State Law at New York Law School and host of the “Max Politics” podcast: Whichever Democratic primary candidate can win the most second-choice votes from voters who initially favor the candidates who finish third through sixth. Ranked choice voting requires candidates to win broad support and a crowded field likely means voters’ second and even third choices could be extremely important. Of course, the second preferences of voters who initially choose the top two finishers never have an impact, so there’s an important amount of power in the ranked preferences of other voters.

Bradley Honan, CEO and president of Honan Strategy Group, a Democratic polling and data analytics firm: If the election is today, Eric Adams wins – Letitia James isn’t in the race and neither is Andrew Cuomo. Name recognition (and political energy) for declared candidates remains modest at best. Advantage: Eric Adams.

Morgan Hook, managing director and head of the Albany office at SKDK: Eric Adams will win reelection. The power of incumbency is strong, and while pundits love to conjure scenarios where Democratic heavyweights duke it out, that never actually happens. There’s a good chance his legal troubles evaporate too.

George Arzt, president of George Arzt Communications: Eric Adams. Trump’s DOJ will drop the case against Adams and Adams will retain enough support to win in ranked choice voting.

Errol Louis, political anchor of Spectrum News NY1 and columnist at New York magazine: The next mayor will be the person who best responds to whatever the voting public considers to be the city’s most pressing need. Keep in mind that we don’t yet know what that might be. In 2001, the main issue erupted suddenly on Sept. 11. A generation earlier, the murder of Yusef Hawkins, which underscored racial tensions in the city, happened in August of 1989, just before the primary. A lot can happen between now and next November, so stay tuned.

Camille Rivera, partner at progressive consulting firm New Deal Strategies: Too early to tell, I will say that Eric isn’t going anywhere and it will be hard to unseat him. If he is denied the next round of Campaign Finance Board funding, I could see him being unseated.

Which of Eric Adams’ Democratic challengers will perform better than expected and why?

Max: I’m not sure there’s much consensus on expectation levels yet given how early it is, but three possibilities for now: Zohran Mamdani has a fairly sizeable far-left base to draw support from, plus the possibility of attracting South Asian voters, and he is charismatic, hard-working and offering populist policy promises; Brad Lander may be seen as the strongest challenger as of now, but it still seems like some people forget he just won a citywide race in 2021 and almost none of his coalition overlapped with Eric Adams’; and if Zellnor Myrie raises enough money to really get his message out and gets in front of enough voters, he could be formidable given how generally likeable and impressive he is, and since he is going to offer a platform with appeal across many demographics.

Honan: The story of the November 2024 election across New York City is the deep grievance with the status quo, and this trend continues into 2025 and 2026. Advantage: Andrew Cuomo, if he decides to enter the race (as the candidate with experience). With ranked choice voting, a growing number of Latinos casting ballots, and 6 in 10 Democratic primary voters female, state Sen. Jessica Ramos could excel as the only female candidate in the race and one of two Latino candidates. The far left in New York City typically rises in terms of their voter turnout under Republican presidents – and specifically Donald Trump – Advantage: DSA’s Zohran Mamdani.

Hook: I’ve always really liked state Sen. Zellnor Myrie. I just think he combines an element of dynamism with a smart approach to government and respect for public service. He is the kind of politician who I want to be the face of the Democratic Party for the next generation.

Arzt: Kathryn Garcia. She retains the fresh face and effective government experience to do well if she runs.

Louis: I suspect Zohran Mamdani will surprise a lot of people. He once spent time as a rapper trying to sell mixtapes to bored and busy bus passengers in Uganda. I can say from personal experience that being a successful street entertainer requires off-the-chart levels of grit, shamelessness, charm and energy. It’s like being a cross between James Brown and Captain Ahab.

Rivera: I think Zohran actually will surprise folks if he is able to raise funds. He is hyperfocused on a base of support and shoring it up early. I think he is a sleeper candidate to watch. His campaign is gritty and on the ground. I am not saying he wins, I am saying folks will like his message.

Who are you watching for a political comeback this year? Why?

Max: Eric Adams, because of the reasons stated above and that when an election actually comes down to voters having to choose among candidates, Adams may get a larger share of (reluctant) ballots than people now assume given his indictment, scandals, failures and unpopularity.

Speaking of scandals: Anthony Weiner, because he seems likely to run for City Council and anything is possible. Weiner is an excellent campaigner and compelling figure, but obviously he has a ton of baggage.

Also speaking of scandals: Andrew Cuomo, because he seems likely to run for either mayor in 2025 or governor in 2026, and will be making a lot of noise either way. Cuomo’s entrance into either race would offer the chance for a much-needed examination of his record as governor.

And Christine Quinn, because she seems to have one more mayoral run in her at some point, and maybe it will be in 2025.

Honan: New York City wants “on it” leadership who can make government work and deliver real results for people – not political rhetoric. Andrew Cuomo has a challenging path, but far more structural and institutional advantages in his favor than anyone else. The Cuomo message delivery system is heads and shoulders above any of the declared candidates – speaking directly to voters where they are. The Anti-Cuomo, MAGA Republican talking points repeated by Democratic mayoral candidates are both perplexing and quite ineffective.

As evidenced by our polling with Maury Litwack, of Teach Coalition/Jewish Voters Unite, the supposed waning influence of the Jewish vote in New York City is on the rebound – Jewish voters are energized and casting ballots in record numbers. Look for the Jewish vote to be key in 2025 and 2026.

Hook: Kathy Hochul, but it’s not really a comeback, just the perception of one. We constantly move the goal posts for her. She was never going to win a full term, until she did. She got rolled by the Legislature in the budget, until she got everything she wanted. She enraged everyone with congestion pricing last summer, until she got it done this fall. She risked her reputation building the party apparatus and working to win congressional races – and they won! – and then people say she’s weak anyway. At some point, people will learn she’s not going anywhere.

Arzt: Eric Adams. Because all odds are against him at the moment and he can prove all the naysayers wrong.

Louis: Gov. Hochul’s political skill has been consistently and constantly underestimated by insiders, even though she has won more than a dozen local, state and federal races over the years. New York governors have enormous power, and I suspect she is going to spend this year demonstrating why it has been 30 years since we voted an incumbent governor out of office.

Rivera: I hate political comebacks especially because most are men connected to harassment and scandals. Fresh starts and new blood please.

Who are you watching as a rising star this year? Why?

Max: Micah Lasher is headed to the Assembly and is likely to make a splash pushing policy ideas. A former policy director for Gov. Hochul, Lasher represents the vote-rich Upper West Side, is experienced and ambitious, and will likely be looking to make a fast and big impact. He will surely take a look at running for Congress when Jerry Nadler retires and could have his eye on a number of other offices at some point.

Crystal Hudson, Carmen De La Rosa, Julie Menin, Amanda Farias, et al., because the race to be the next City Council speaker is going to heat up in a big way.

Keith Powers is running for Manhattan borough president and probably the early favorite. He’s a genuine public servant who works hard and likes doing government and figuring out solutions.

Alec Lewis, vice president and director of campaigns, O’Donnell & Associates: After winning close races in 2020 and 2022, Michelle Hinchey achieved a statement win in 2024. Representing communities at the intersection of upstate and downstate, Hinchey is poised to command further statewide respect both within the Senate and beyond. Expect her to be a leading voice on prioritizing affordability issues for everyday New Yorkers.

As the longtime president of the Communications Workers of America Local 1123 and the minority leader in the Onondaga County Legislature, incoming state Sen. Chris Ryan will be looked to within the Senate majority to strengthen connections within the labor movement and with local governments.

Following her victory in a highly competitive six-way primary, incoming Assembly Member Gabriella Romero will be forming a historic all-female state legislative delegation for the city of Albany with Pat Fahy in the state Senate. They’ll have the opportunity to work together in addressing growing concerns over quality of life and public safety.

Honan: New York politics is in the midst of generational change and a new breed of leaders is rising, including Brad Hoylman-Sigal, Vanessa Gibson, Donovan Richards, Julie Menin, Ritchie Torres, Justin Brannan, Latrice Walker, Landon Dais and Alex Bores are rising stars who are poised to win higher office.

Hook: Assembly Member Billy Jones is the Democrats’ best and perhaps only chance to be competitive in the special election to replace Elise Stefanik, if he wants it. He is the only Democrat to hold state office north of Saratoga, and while that race will be difficult for anyone, he has a chance to shine in a race that will have national attention.

Arzt: Ritchie Torres will be rising in the Democratic Party as he ascends toward next year’s gubernatorial primary. He is charismatic and a vibrant light in the midst of tediousness.

Louis: Keep an eye on Chi Ossé, who got a major piece of legislation passed that abolishes broker fees. Not many politicians can say they successfully took on the New York real estate industry before their 27th birthday.

Rivera: I am watching Catalina Cruz, Antonio Delgado and Emerita Torres.

How will Donald Trump’s presidency, as well as Republican majorities in the House and Senate, impact New York in 2025?

Honan: Voter turnout in the June 2025 and June 2026 elections is going to surge and the Democratic primary electorate will become less white, younger and more progressive. Many long-term incumbents, especially those short on accomplishments, will face tough headwinds.

Hook: The “resistance” mindset in 2016 has been largely absent in the weeks after the election, but it’s not going to take long once he takes office for Trump to start enraging Democrats, and aligning them on policy and political priorities at the state level.

Arzt: There will be total turmoil among the Republicans so it will be difficult to get New York what it received the last few years.

Louis: New York Republicans have an incredible opportunity to build a turnout infrastructure, identify winning issues, raise a ton of money and recruit candidates. It will only succeed if they stay responsive to local issues, with an inclusive style that is distinct from the national party’s Trumpian focus on resentment and retribution.

Will Republican momentum keep growing in New York?

Max: Last time, a Donald Trump presidency was very bad for Republicans in New York, and that is likely to be the case again, though perhaps not to the same degree. Still, it would not be surprising if Republicans picked up another seat in the City Council and had a better than expected showing in the mayoral race, if they can nominate someone serious and formidable – a very big if – and provoke significant (independent expenditure) spend, which could happen if a progressive emerges from the Democratic primary.

Honan: A pro-choice, moderate Republican would give Eric Adams a real run for his money in a general election. The Democrats need to be in delivery mode on issues and messaging – or the GOP will continue to overperform – see the latest Siena College poll. Likewise, a pro-choice, moderate Republican could pose a similar threat to Kathy Hochul, if the gubernatorial election were held today. Again see the Siena poll.

Hook: You mean when they lost congressional seats in November or when they lost every statewide race by double digits? Yes, I think that will continue.

Arzt: Yes. There is growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party in New York.

Louis: Ed Cox, the party chair, has been at odds with Rep. Nick Langworthy in the past. But if they patch things up and focus on party-building, the New York GOP has a great chance to build on 2024’s inroads in Latino, Asian and Black communities. If they’re smart, the party bosses will make greater use of strategists like J.C. Polanco, John Burnett and Scherie Murray, who have contacts and credibility in communities of color.

Rivera: If we let it, yes. We need to get simpler with our message, stop overthinking what we want to say to voters and deliver it. We can’t hedge our bets. We need to be better Democrats. If we do that, I think the momentum will cap. It also depends on how much folks can take from Trump and what it does to the state as a whole.

Which issue will dominate the legislative session in Albany?

Max: Affordability, clearly, as New York Democrats scramble to respond to voters’ concerns and Donald Trump’s better-than-expected performance in the state. Child care looks like it will again be a particular focus under the larger affordability umbrella, and I expect there to be a big push for something ambitious on that front while state leaders also look at tax cuts and other policies to benefit middle- and working-class New Yorkers. And it will be interesting to see which housing policies gain traction this year after two years where Gov. Hochul’s ambitious Housing Compact went nowhere in 2023 then the state passed a number of more targeted housing policies in 2024. Another issue to watch is of course immigration, meaning how state lawmakers approach protecting the vast majority of law-abiding undocumented immigrants and asylum-seekers amid Trump administration efforts at a promised “mass deportation.” Lastly, I would keep an eye on efforts to change the state’s discovery laws after reforms made in recent years have in part led to many more cases being dismissed by prosecutors and continued concerns about crime, disorder and repeat offenders.

Honan: The rising power influencing what does or doesn’t happen in Albany is increasingly Vox Populi – the voice of the people. Mobilizing authentic grassroots support for or against legislation will have an outsized impact on whether legislation becomes law or not, and how the bureaucracy addresses key issues. In response to Trump, the state Senate is poised to be especially active and the place to watch.

Hook: Albany is going to start paying a lot more attention to pocketbook issues, cost of living, making New York affordable for working families. Gov. Hochul has been signaling this for a year already. She was way ahead of the pack identifying it as an issue that was rising above all others.

Arzt: MTA funding. How will the state fill the gap? Is congestion pricing enough? Good luck Janno!

Louis: Congestion pricing will be a high-profile issue when the session opens. I also expect Gov. Hochul to resume her battle to build affordable housing in suburban communities.

Rivera: I think health care and trying to rein in Trump using whatever means the Legislature has will be vital. Housing and the economy again will dominate.

Who will ramp up potential runs for governor in 2025?

Max: Obviously Mike Lawler on the Republican side and Ritchie Torres on the Democratic side. Andrew Cuomo is a lurking possibility. Beyond those three, it’s worth watching what Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado has in mind amid his distance from Gov. Hochul and ways in which he has sought to position himself over the last year, calling for Joe Biden to exit the presidential race relatively soon after the outgoing president’s debate debacle and then writing in The New York Times about Democrats’ post-election path forward. One big question will be who Republicans can get to run if Lawler declines to forgo a 2026 congressional reelection bid and with Lee Zeldin on the verge of taking a Trump administration post – keep an eye on Marc Molinaro, though he may run for Congress again sooner. Another is who progressives may look to as a standard-bearer in the 2026 primary, with much room to the left of Hochul, Torres and Cuomo but a very challenging statewide path to victory, especially in the current political climate. Delgado could look to grab restive progressives in a populist-minded campaign if he were to take the enormous leap of challenging his own 2022 running mate.

Hook: Mike Lawler on the Republican side, of course. I can’t deny he has some political skill, and Republicans will almost certainly rally around him and anoint him as the challenger to Hochul in ’26. But the reality is that the vast majority of New York voters have never heard of the guy, and the first time they do, it will be in an attack ad from Hochul’s campaign. (He also won his very winnable race against a bad opponent by only 4 points, after you deduct the 2 points the sham WFP candidate got. Not great!)

Arzt: Ritchie Torres in the Democratic Party and Mike Lawler in the GOP are the two to watch.

Louis: It looks like Ritchie Torres and Mike Lawler are all-in. And it’s probably now or never for Andrew Cuomo, who clearly wants his old job back.