A jobs boon from a casino at Manhattan’s Hudson Yards? Experts aren’t betting on it.

When casino giant Wynn showed off plans for its Hudson Yards West casino proposal last month, it enlisted progressive heavyweights to make the case that the venture would be a jobs bonanza for poor and working-class New Yorkers. The endorsements were full-throated and infused with hope and promise.

Leaders from the NAACP, National Urban League and Win, New York City’s largest provider of family shelter and permanent supportive housing, were among the groups that said the proposal would bring significant career opportunities. Christine Quinn, the head of Win and a former City Council speaker, spoke of “thousands of jobs for homeless moms.”

All told, according to Wynn New York City, the development could generate some 35,000 union construction jobs and add more than 5,000 unionized employees to Manhattan’s economy across a wide spectrum of professions.

But academic and business experts who have studied the economic impact of casinos have urged more skepticism and expressed doubt about the high hopes for jobs attached to the $12 billion venture. They point to a mixed bag of impacts from casino projects, outside of the shorter-term benefit of construction jobs. And their research even references net employment losses in casino communities, as new gaming halls — famously designed to keep patrons from venturing outside — snuff out economic activity nearby.

Some of the casino research points to boosts in incomes and employment, though not the lasting kind. Still, the researchers acknowledge, there is currently no analog for a full-blown casino in the heart of New York City, making reliable predictions hard to come by.

Michigan State University economist Chad Cotti wrote in a New York Times opinion piece in 2013 — when New York was set to allow a number of casinos to open upstate — that “empirical analysis indicates that casinos often lead to a meaningful increase in employment in less populated areas.” However, he added, the facilities have “a negligible employment benefit in larger cities.”

In an interview last week, Cotti said his research is “getting kind of dated at this point” but noted, “we didn’t really see meaningful differences in total employment at the county level for larger counties.”

Researcher Andrew Economopoulos, professor of business and economics at Ursinus College, has examined the same issues.

In a 2015 research paper, Economopoulos studied the impact of casinos in the mid-Atlantic region, where casinos have been in operation since 1978, with the establishment of Resorts International in Atlantic City. He wrote that the “flood gates opened” in the late 1980s, leading to tribal casinos in upstate New York and casinos in West Virginia.

The study found that casinos raise per-capita income in urban areas but lower it in rural areas, and produce overall gains in private, total and retail employment. But Economopoulos added a caveat: The gains in both income and employment erode over time.

Economopoulus, in an email Friday, wrote: “There is always an immediate impact from the spending to create the casino — like any business investment, but once the casino is in operation the ability to attract money from outside the city will be harder. Attracting spending from outside the city is what generates the economic benefits to the city.  This casino in the city will be competing with other entertainment dollars that were planned to be spent anyway.  Other entertainment venues are likely to suffer.”

Jonathan Krutz, emeritus professor of the College of Business and Economics at Boise State University, who analyzed the jobs issue in a 2022 paper, offered a bleak assessment, beyond the temporary economic benefit of construction jobs.

“It’s actually a slightly negative impact,” he said in an interview. “What my research shows is that if you create a job in a casino, you’re going to essentially cancel out another job that’s in that area — because if I’m living in that area and I’m eating at the restaurants and shopping at the stores, and then I get hooked on gambling and suddenly my money’s going into the slot machine instead of the store [or] restaurant, then the store and the restaurant are going to be selling less.”

“Which means they’re going to shrink,” Krutz continued. “They’re going to hire fewer people. So it’s a direct correlation.”

He warned of another likelihood — gambling addiction — and estimated that for every job created at the casino, three people would experience gambling addiction.

But Cotti said it’s hard to predict what will happen once casinos open in New York City based on existing research, simply because it’s the country’s biggest and most densely populated city.

“It is very unique unto itself,” he said.

‘The pathway to the middle class’

The mixed-use Wynn project, which would overlook the Hudson River, is one of 11 projects that have been proposed by competing entities across the city and nearby suburbs. Applications to the state Gaming Commission are due in June 2025, with the expected announcement of three licenses by the end of next year.

Michael Weaver, a spokesman for Wynn Resorts, said the project would create 5,000 permanent jobs, 60% of which wouldn’t require a college degree. These include full-time jobs for security guards, dishwashers, room attendants and floor housekeepers, and anticipated wages range from $39 to $41 an hour.

“Wynn has a long track record of hiring and training workers from the communities in which we operate,” Weaver said in an email.

Additionally, he said, the company plans to launch a dealer school, where people could become casino dealers with approximately 120 hours of training. That initiative, Weaver said, “will provide entirely new career opportunities for New Yorkers” and would be done in conjunction with the Borough of Manhattan Community College.

Michelle Hernandez, vice president of public affairs at BMCC, wrote in an email that she had no information about any such collaboration.

The project and the prospect of others in the metro area have spurred excitement from the Building and Construction Trades Council of Greater New York, whose various member organizations and unions represent more than 100,000 workers across the city, according to its website.

Gary LaBarbera, the organization’s president, said in a statement that “every casino that may come to fruition in New York will be built with union labor, ensuring that as the new projects rise, so too will the opportunity to travel the pathway to the middle class for hard-working tradesmen and tradeswomen.”

Supporters, detractors line up

But not everybody is sold on the casino pitches. The projects have encountered opposition from elected officials and community groups alike.

A proposal by Mets owner Steve Cohen to open a casino in Queens was blocked by state Sen. Jessica Ramos, a Democrat who represents the area and is now running for mayor. She has cited opposition from neighbors of the development site.

Assemblymember Tony Simone, a Democrat from Manhattan, wrote on X in July that he was “philosophically opposed to a casino on the West Side of Manhattan.”

“The community has been against it, and unless that changes, I’m a no,” he wrote. In an email, an aide to Simone said his office would have no further comment until a proposal is formally presented.

Meanwhile, organizers of a campaign opposing the Wynn project, “Protect the High Line at the Rail Yards,” say they have gathered 2,100 supporters. They argue on their website that the development plans for “three massive towers and a proposed new casino [was] produced without any community input [and] would negatively impact the experience of millions of visitors and obstruct important and iconic views from the High Line.”

“Related and Wynn should take the time to listen to the community, rather than steamrolling through a plan that does permanent damage to the High Line experience,” Alan van Capelle, executive director of Friends of the High Line, said in a statement, referring to the development team.

Separately, Silverstein Properties has proposed another casino project on the far West Side of Manhattan. Known as the Avenir, the complex would include two 46-story towers comprising 1,000 luxury hotel rooms, a 600,000-square-foot gaming, entertainment and restaurant complex, a performance hall and 100 units of permanently affordable housing. The company said in a release that the project would create 4,000 union construction jobs and another 5,500 permanent union jobs.

John DeSio, a spokesperson for Silverstein Properties, said company officials “continue to have conversations with a diverse array of local stakeholders about our proposal.”

“We’ve appreciated hearing constructive feedback to help inform our application and are looking forward to continuing that dialogue in the months ahead,” he said.

‘A corporation going above and beyond’

Despite public criticisms, supporters of the Wynn project are doubling down on what they describe as the project’s transformative effect. Company officials say that in addition to a resort and casino the project would create 1,500 new housing units, including 324 affordable apartments, 5.6 acres of open space and a 750-seat public school.

In his endorsement video for the Wynn casino, Marc Morial, president of the National Urban League and the former mayor of New Orleans, said it “will have a significant and positive impact on the urban community, especially communities of color here in New York City.”

And in a video testimonial, Hazel Dukes, president of the New York chapter of the NAACP, cited the “need for so many career opportunities,” saying the Wynn project “would enhance the area at Hudson Yards.”

Quinn, the former City Council speaker and president and CEO of Win, said in her video testimonial, “I am ready for thousands of jobs for homeless moms working with Wynn New York City.” In an interview, Quinn acknowledged that Wynn had provided her housing organization with a $100,000 donation.

The gift accorded the company “Visionary” status for Win’s May 1 gala at Chelsea Piers, the top donor level. Wynn, on its website, identifies itself as a supporter of a wide range of civic, charitable and community groups, including the New York City Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and Hot Bread Kitchen, a community service organization.

Additionally, Quinn said her nonprofit had received a donation in 2018 from the commercial real estate firm SL Green, which is partnering with Caesars Entertainment on a casino proposal at 1515 Broadway. In Win’s 2017-18 annual report, SL Green is listed as a “Champion”-level donor that gave the organization between $10,000 and $24,999.

Quinn said the Wynn project would allow for the establishment of a training institute “to make sure that homeless moms who might not on day one have all of the skills they need, get those skills and also are in a position where they can move up to managerial jobs.”

“And that to me is incredibly compelling,” she said, “and an example of a corporation going above and beyond.”