A way-too-early prediction of the Giants’ 2024 season record

When I was a child there was a popular TV show called, “To Tell the Truth.” Four celebrity judges would be introduced to a group of three people, one of whom had something unusual about them that the panel would be told in advance, while the others were impostors. The job of the judges was to figure out via questioning which one was the actual person they’d been told about and which were the impostors.

That’s what predicting the New York Giants’ 2024 record feels like. Was the 2022 team, which unexpectedly reached the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, the real Brian Daboll-era team? Or was the disastrous, injury-riddled 2023 team the “real” Giants? Or neither?

Most analysts and many fans seem to think the Giants showed their true colors last year. I’m not one of them. I think that a murderous early-season schedule, combined with a series of debilitating injuries and an unfathomably bad offensive line, sank that season. That said, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty surrounding the 2024 team right now.

Will Daniel Jones be ready to play by Week 1? If he is, will his ACL injury recovery limit him? Will the offensive line be better with the infusion of veterans? If it is, will Jones be able to exploit the first elite receiver he’s ever had? Can he show improvements in read progression and anticipation in throws, or is it too late for that? Will the Saquon Barkley-less Giants have an effective running game? Who will start at tight end? Will the addition of Brian Burns be enough to give the Giants the dangerous pass rush from both sides they’ve been lacking? Will the interior defensive line be porous to opponents’ running games? Will the Giants’ rookies in the defensive backfield be able to step in and start, and be effective, on Day 1? Will the Giants benefit from, or be hurt by, the new kickoff rule, or both? Will Daboll take over play calling? Will he keep his cool on the sideline? Is Shane Bowen a good defensive coordinator?

Some of that will sort itself out over the summer and we may have a better idea as the season approaches. For now, though, my instinct is to assume that the Giants are neither as good as they seemed in 2022 nor as bad as they seemed in 2023. In fact, I think that overall the roster is better than it was in 2022, especially at some of the high value positions. Unfortunately, the schedule looks more like 2023 than 2022.

With that, my prediction for the team’s record is a coward’s 8-9, consistent with a philosophy of regression toward the mean when unfortunately all we have is two data points and no knowledge of the actual mean or whether than mean is sloping upward or downward over time.

Here is how I see things playing out…at the moment:

Week 1 — vs. Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy revenge game, but it will take him a while to figure things out as Tae Banks intercepts him. The Giants’ revamped offensive line is put to the test against a strong pass rush but holds its own and the Giants survive as Daniel Jones throws a TD pass to Wan’Dale Robinson and runs for another.

1-0

Week 2 — at Washington Commanders

The Giants’ pass rush feasts on the Commanders’ weak offensive tackles and harasses Jayden Daniels into mistakes, one of them intercepted by Tyler Nubin, while Malik Nabers has his first signature game as a Giant, catching two TD passes from Jones.

2-0

Week 3 — at Cleveland Browns

The Browns dominate the line of scrimmage and Cleveland grinds out a low-scoring win behind Nick Chubb. The Giants manage only three field goals as the Jones questions begin once again.

2-1

Week 4 — vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Giants’ young secondary gets exposed by CeeDee Lamb and Co. and Evan Neal still has trouble with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Neal is replaced at right tackle by Jermaine Eluemunor in the second half. Jones is picked off by DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs.

2-2

Week 5 — at Seattle Seahawks

Drew Lock replaces an ineffective Jones in the second half after two more interceptions, but it’s not enough to come all the way back in a game in which the Seahawks’ receivers dominate the Giants’ defensive backs.

2-3

Week 6 — vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Lock is now the starter. Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux put a beating on Joe Burrow in an exciting back-and-forth game, but Burrow guts out a win by leading the Bengals to a last-second winning field goal.

2-4

Week 7 — vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Dexter Lawrence realizes that there’s no more Jason Kelce in the middle to neutralize him and gives Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley fits all afternoon. Lock connects on several explosive pass plays with Malik Nabers against the Eagles’ rookie cornerbacks and the Giants get their second straight win over Philly.

3-4

Week 8 — at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Giants’ defense neutralizes Russell Wilson, with Dru Phillips getting his first NFL interception, but the Steelers’ defense controls the line of scrimmage in a low-scoring victory.

3-5

Week 9 — vs. Washington Commanders

The light has come on for Jayden Daniels, who torches the Giants’ defense with TD passes to Terry McLaurin and Ben Sinnott. Lock rallies the Giants, though, with Theo Johnson catching his first NFL TD pass for the game winner.

4-5

Week 10 — vs. Carolina Panthers (Munich, Germany)

Bryce Young now has receivers to throw to and is improved from his rookie year, but the Giants’ pass rush shreds the leaky Carolina offensive line and forces several turnovers as the crowd chants, “Gehen Sie Riesen!” Tyrone Tracy takes a kickoff to the house to seal the victory in the fourth quarter.

5-5

Week 11 — BYE

No player will go for an ATV ride this week.

Week 12 — vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants’ secondary shuts down Baker Mayfield and Lock throws TD passes to Nabers and Jalin Hyatt as the Giants prevail.

6-5

Week 13 — at Dallas Cowboys (Thanksgiving Day)

With Eluemunor at RT, the offensive line has stabilized, and the offense can now operate against the Cowboys. Devin Singletary has his best rushing game of the season. Nonetheless, Dallas prevails in a shootout.

6-6

Week 14 — vs. New Orleans Saints

The Giants’ defense mostly holds the Saints’ offense in check, but Lock is unable to do much against the Saints’ defense and New Orleans ekes out a low-scoring win.

6-7

Week 15 — vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens’ punishing running game behind Derrick Henry is too much for the Giants’ interior defense, which wears down in the second half. A few demoralizing scrambles by Lamar Jackson plus a TD pass to Zay Flowers are too much for the Giants to overcome.

6-8

Week 16 — at Atlanta Falcons

The Giants’ pass rush reminds Kirk Cousins of why Minnesota let him become a free agent. The Giants’ offense clicks on all cylinders in this game, including deep scores to Darius Slayton and Nabers. In the fourth quarter, Cousins is benched for Michael Penix Jr.

7-8

Week 17 — vs. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson is on IR for the second consecutive season, and Joe Flacco is not mobile enough to escape the Giants’ pass rush. Bobby Okereke returns an interception for a TD as the Giants coast to victory.

8-8

Week 18 — at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles’ rookie cornerbacks have now come of age, and they shut down the Giants’ passing offense, with help from a ferocious pass rush, in a game the Eagles have to win to make the playoffs. Lock is benched at halftime, and Tommy DeVito plays the second half, but Saquon Barkley scores two TDs as the Giants finish the season with a loss.

8-9