AFL Grand Final prediction: Brisbane vs. Sydney odds, picks, best bets

The 2024 AFL Grand Final — the Australian version of the Super Bowl — will be held on Saturday (12:30 a.m. ET) at the historic Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) in a matchup featuring the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions.

The Swans, who spent nearly the entire season in first place, are a slight -136 favorite over the Lions, who finished fifth on the ladder after starting the campaign quite slow.

Both teams have plenty of experience playing in big moments as Sydney lost in the 2022 Grand Final to Geelong and Brisbane fell short against Collingwood in a classic at this time last year. 

Here’s a breakdown of the matchup with a prediction and pick.

Sydney vs. Brisbane odds

Sydney vs. Brisbane prediction

While AFL may not be familiar to most American sports fans and punters, the conundrum at play here is a classic handicapping quandary.

The Swans were the best team in the competition from start to finish, but they’re now taking on a fiery Lions squad that fits the billing as the quintessential “got hot at the right time” mob. 

For Sydney, the key to success is letting its deadly midfield trio of Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley and Chad Warner set the tone.

When allowed to get on the ball, those three can completely overrun their opponents. They were sensational in both of Sydney’s games in the 2024 Finals Series, most notably against the Greater Western Sydney (GWS) Giants at the beginning of the month. 

The good news for the Lions is their midfield is just as stout and features plenty of game-changers as well. Lachie Neale is a powerful ball-mover in the middle of the park and should be able to help keep the Swans’ trio from running rampant.

With the midfields a wash, we can look to the frontlines to find the edge in this contest.

Brisbane’s tall forwards of Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher can be imperious when they’re on, and both have proven to be big-game players over the past couple of seasons. Daniher played a massive role in Brisbane’s historic comeback against GWS two weeks ago. 

Sydney’s defense has been stout all season, but it’s a different game going up against Hipwood, Daniher and small forwards Charlie Cameron and Cam Rayner.

Check Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps

Sydney vs. Brisbane pick

Both of these teams have plenty of weapons, and while it’s nitpicking, Brisbane is one of a few teams in the AFL that can go toe-to-toe with Sydney’s difference-makers all over the pitch.

In a game viewed as a toss-up, I’ll take the underdog.

The Bet: Brisbane +112