Alabama vs. Tennessee, North Texas vs. Memphis predictions: College football odds, picks

A loss for either Alabama or Tennessee has the potential to knock one of the teams out of the College Football Playoff. 

That should translate to desperation and a more wide-open game on Saturday with both coaching staffs having no reason to hold anything back. 

Here are my best bets for Week 8 in college football:

Alabama vs. Tennessee (3:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC)

Nick Saban must be hate-watching the Alabama secondary this season.

This year’s unit, while incredibly talented, lacks discipline, which is downright un-Saban-like.

It shows on tape with countless blown assignments and explosive plays through the air. 

Last week against South Carolina, LaNorris Sellers was able to burn the Crimson Tide with passes of at least 15 yards on four occasions, including a late 31-yard connection with Nyck Harbor in the end zone.

This has been a recurring theme throughout the season, with receivers burning Alabama’s defense deep late in games. 

Can Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava cash in like Carson Beck, Diego Pavia and Sellers have in the past month?

The first hurdle will be his coaching staff letting him. 

When operating at peak efficiency, Tennessee’s “Veer and Shoot” offense should include a flurry of deep shots.

The offense’s original architect, Art Briles, coined the phrase “haymakers until the final bell.”

This season, it’s decidedly more run-centric. 

Dylan Sampson has 73 carries over the past three weeks while Iamaleava has attempted just 76 passes.

But those conservative game plans came against anemic offenses in Oklahoma, Arkansas and Florida.

The Vols will have no choice but to air it out in Knoxville, Tenn., once the Alabama offense gets cooking.

Kalen DeBoer is one of the game’s finest game-planners, and he’s up against a Vols defense that will struggle to communicate on the field.

Until he went down with a season-ending ACL injury, Keenan Pili, arguably Tennessee’s best defender, relayed calls from the coaching staff and made sure everyone was lined up properly pre-snap. 

With Pili out, Tennessee will likely be caught out of position a few times on Saturday, which is bad news against an Alabama offense with game-changing athletes like Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams. 

I like this game to devolve into a shootout much like Alabama’s classic against Georgia. I would play the over up to 59. 

Recommendation: Over 56.5 points (-115, FanDuel) 

North Texas vs. Memphis (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

The 67.5 total for this game is predicated on Memphis’ recent offensive regression.

Against USF, the Tigers scored just three touchdowns in a 21-3 win.

But Memphis left a lot of points on the board via a missed field goal and a pair of turnovers on downs.

They did run up 345 total yards. 

The week before that, Memphis mustered just 24 points at home against Middle Tennessee.

The Tigers played things conservatively down the stretch with a comfortable lead but fared better in the yardage battle (413 yards). 

Betting on College Football?

Here’s what I know about this game: North Texas is going to score at will, so playing not to lose isn’t on the table.

The Mean Green are fifth in total offense and score more than 40 points per game. 

What I also know is that North Texas has 11 scarecrows on defense.

UNT is 105th in Pass EPA, 106th in tackling, 133rd in pass rush and rank near the bottom in havoc.

This defense is the remedy to Memphis’ offensive blues.

And then there’s tempo. Memphis is 12th in plays per game, which is a snail’s pace compared to North Texas, which snaps it every 23.3 seconds.

I would play the over up to 69.5. 

Recommendation: Over 67.5 points (-115, FanDuel) 

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.