Analysis | This 10-1 long shot has what it takes to win the Belmont Stakes

Sierra Leone prefers to lag behind the first and second flight of horses and use a late kick to pass the competition. His Grade I Blue Grass Stakes win was an excellent illustration of this. The speed to the half-mile mark was 46.48 seconds, faster than the average pace for that distance after adjusting for track conditions. The front-runner who helped set that pace, Top Conor, finished sixth by eight lengths. In Saturday’s field, however, none of the other horses appear eager to create the speed duel necessary for him to take advantage of his running style.

Instead, let’s focus on Resilience, a 10-1 long shot and the reigning Grade II Wood Memorial winner.

Guided by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, Resilience finished an underwhelming sixth by 7¾ lengths in the Kentucky Derby, but I am willing to toss that race out and focus instead on his Wood Memorial victory. Resilience earned a career-best 104 Brisnet final speed figure in that race. That’s the highest earned by any horse in the field as a 3-year-old over a fast, dirt track in a route race.

The key was an equipment change; blinkers were added to reduce the colt’s hesitation to pass other horses. It worked, and the career-best pace figure (speed to the three-quarter-mile mark in routes) Resilience produced is a signal that better efforts are on the horizon.

This race will be contested at the classic distance of 1¼ miles at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., rather than the typical 1½ miles because of renovations at Belmont Park, which suits Resilience perfectly. He is a son of five-time leading North American sire Into Mischief, whose progeny include Kentucky Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021) plus third-place finisher Audible (2018). Resilience’s dam, Meadowsweet, is a daughter of Smart Strike, who sired two-time horse of the year Curlin plus Breeders’ Cup Turf (1½ mile race) winner English Channel.

Mott initially decided to avoid the remaining Triple Crown races with Resilience after his disappointing finish at Churchill Downs, but strong training sessions at Saratoga — including a half-mile breeze in 47.88 seconds Sunday morning alongside another Mott-trained horse, Billal — persuaded him the colt deserves a second chance at the classic distance. Because this is a contentious race with no clear standout, I would bet Resilience at odds higher than 3-1.

Two other contenders are worth noting: Dornoch and Honor Marie. Dornoch could get out front early and never look back as he did in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes in March. Plus, his sire, Good Magic, was the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and finished second in the 2018 Kentucky Derby, showing he should relish the 1¼-mile distance. In addition, Good Magic’s sire, Curlin, was a two-time horse of the year.

If Dornoch is challenged for the early lead, I think it will be Honor Marie — not Sierra Leone — who is best suited to run down the tired horses. Honor Marie didn’t need a fast pace to win from behind in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs despite sitting seventh out of eighth horses at the three-quarter-mile mark. I would make a win wager on Dornoch and Honor Marie at odds of at least 9-2 and 6-1, respectively.