Around the NBA: New York’s leaky D, bad vibes in Minny, and the Bucks’ turn of luck

We’re over a month into the season, and the Wolves, Bucks, and Knickerbockers still have a combined record of just 31-27.

Perhaps many of us were simply wrong about their title chances, but I think it also shows how deep the league currently is. Outside of a select few teams at the top and bottom, every other squad is still more than capable of making the playoffs or play-in.

But given how high many were on Minnesota, Milwaukee, and New York, it’s worth analyzing if they can bounce back and meet the pre-season expectations.

Let’s begin in the Big Apple.

Can the Knickerbockers tighten up their D?

Trading for KAT was an indication that New York wanted to make offense more of their identity, and it’s largely paid off. The Knicks are currently second league-wide in offensive rating at 123.5, and KAT is having arguably his best season yet: Big Purr is currently averaging 25.8 points on ludicrous 54/46.8/85 shooting splits.

The other end of the court has proved to be a major problem, though. The Knicks knew that they’d be sacrificing a lot of their defensive identity by acquiring KAT, but I don’t think anyone expected it to be this bad. Their 117.6 defensive rating is 24th, which has largely been caused by KAT’s abysmal rim protection — opposing players are shooting 72% within six feet of the basket when guarded by KAT, which is 9.5% higher than their average field goal percentage in that area.

To put things in perspective, that 9.5% difference in FG% is the largest discrepancy in the league among centers who’ve played over 100 minutes this season. In short, KAT has been the worst rotation-level big man in the entire NBA at protecting the rim so far.

Looking at the tape, it’s not hard to see why. In the first possession below, KAT’s caught in no man’s land since he commits too late to the ballhandler, allowing PJ Washington to easily dump it to Dereck Lively for the open dunk. Then, KAT’s caught behind the play, and even after recovering, he takes a foul by haphazardly swiping at the ball.

To make matters worse, KAT might be just as bad of a team defender as he is an individual one. In the next clip, he’s once again caught behind the play (anecdotally, I counted four instances of that happening in the first quarter of this game alone) and has no idea who to guard. This creates chaos in the Knicks’ defense and leads to them giving up a wide-open three.

On some level, this was to be expected given KAT’s history of playing shoddy defense when he’s the lone big. What wasn’t expected, though, is Mikal Bridges’ struggles in his own end.

The Knicks rolled the dice on the KAT trade after they already acquired Bridges, with the rationale being that the WingStop duo of him and OG Anunoby could cover for KAT’s deficiencies. Unfortunately for New York, they’ve thus far been served a plate of drums without the flats.

Bridges’ disappointing defense begins with his declining lateral quickness. In the first possession below, he bites on Kyrie’s fake and isn’t able to provide any resistance on the latter’s drive. Kyrie is arguably the hardest player to guard in isolation, but when Bridges was at his defensive peak, he would’ve at least been able to recover enough to contest from behind.

The second possession sums up the Knicks’ problem even better. First, Kyrie blows by Bridges, before making an easy lob to Lively due to another late contest from KAT. The big man was caught being indecisive once again, as he didn’t step up to contain Kyrie nor stick to Lively to prevent the dunk.

On the bright side, the pending return of Mitchell Robinson will help shore up a lot of New York’s defensive issues. I expect Bridges to be better too since he’s still adapting to being a role player again, and it’s very possible that the Knicks could get closer to a league-average defense.

Did Minnesota catch lightning in a bottle last year?

Is Big Purr the best team chemistry guy in the NBA? Given how much the Wolves seem to dislike each other, he might just be.

Minnesota’s success last year was predicated on their elite defense, which has drastically slipped this season. In 2023-24, they had the best defensive rating at 108.9, which was 2.6 points better than #2 ranked Orlando. They’ve still been decent this year at 112.4 (8th), but it’s no longer good enough to make up for their shoddy offense (113.2, 19th).

The biggest difference between the two seasons has been Rudy Gobert’s on/off numbers. Last year, the Wolves were still elite with the Stifle Tower on the bench by boasting a 111.3 defensive rating, which has now dropped all the way down to 122.2.

Ironically, a lot of their success without Gobert was the two-way play of KAT. While we just dedicated an entire section dissecting his poor defense, a lot of that is due to scheme. KAT can be a very useful defender with another centre protecting the rim behind him, and his struggles in New York have largely been exacerbated because he’s been the lone big. Even without Gobert behind him, the Wolves still had another big in Naz Reid and a plethora of disruptive wings that made KAT’s job a lot easier.

Julius Randle, though, is a whole different story. While KAT can be inattentive on D, he has enough defensive IQ to be serviceable under the right schemes. Unfortunately, Randle is both inattentive and has poor defensive IQ. The clip below is a good example, as it shows four consecutive possessions of Randle not knowing his assignment, giving the Kings either a free runway to the rim or a wide-open shot.

Offensively, things aren’t much better. Minnesota has been jacking threes — 43.9% of their possessions end that way, which is the fifth-highest rate in the league. Given that they only shot from deep on 35% of possessions last year (20th), it feels like they’re trying to overcompensate in that area due to KAT’s absence.

The problem is that they’re now an average shooting team, as Minny’s 37.2% success rate is 12th. Most of that has been propped up by Anthony Edwards, who now takes 47% of his shots from three. He’s making a ludicrous 43% of those attempts, but it’s resulted in him taking just 24% of his shots within four feet of the basket, which is 7% lower than his previous career low.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with Ant shooting threes at a high clip given his success, but it has resulted in him driving less, which is when he’s most dangerous. It’s also not surprising to see his assist percentage drop from 24.1% to 17.9%: Minny has turned more into a my turn, your turn type of offense given Randle’s poor three-point shooting (33.7%) and tendency to play hero-ball.

In short, this team just doesn’t have an identity. Their best player feels the need to compensate for their lack of spacing at the expense of using his god-tier athleticism, and the defense is no longer good enough to make up for their below-average offense.

Are the Bucks finally earning some luck?

Lakers fans were already photoshopping Giannis in the purple and gold after Milwaukee started 1-6, but the Bucks have thankfully righted the ship and are now on a six-game winning streak.

So which stretch was more indicative of Milwaukee’s true level? Looking at the numbers, it’s evident that the Bucks were getting unlucky defensively amid their horrid start: their opponents had a 56.1% effective field goal percentage even though they were expected to make 53.6% when accounting for their shot location. During that time, a nice 69% of shots went in against the Bucks within four feet of the rim, which is very unlike a Milwaukee team that prides itself on rim protection.

Since then, their luck has reversed: Milwaukee’s opponent’s eFG% is down to just 52.1% (5th during that span), which is lower than their expected location eFG% of 54.6%. Over that time, the Bucks have had the 11th-best defensive rating (112.8), largely fuelled by them holding opponents to just 59.6% (3rd) around the rim.

Simply put, Milwaukee’s defense has overcorrected recently. After factoring in their unlucky start, though, the Bucks should be about an average or slightly below-average on defense, which is right in line with their current 19th-ranked defensive rating (115.3).

That was to be expected when they traded for Damian Lillard. However, their mediocre offense is what comes as a surprise. The entire premise of this team was to have an average defense but an otherworldly offense, the latter of which hasn’t come to fruition considering their 114.7 offensive rating barely scratches the top 10.

The biggest issue on that end is the lack of chemistry between Giannis and Dame. With both on the court, Milwaukee’s 116.9 offensive rating would still be outside the top 5, and the Bucks are actually better with Dame on and Giannis off (117.4 ORTG). What seemed like a perfect combo has been reduced to just two stars trading ballhandling duties, and neither has been willing to sacrifice.

For Giannis, his ideal role is to operate more as a big when he’s with Dame, but the Greek Freak has been the role man on just 9.4% of possessions this year. Meanwhile, Dame is still unwilling to use his gravity in an off-ball role, as he often just stands and watches Giannis plow through a wall without moving.

In the clip above, the Bucks’ offense would be much more dangerous if Dame ran to the strong side corner, giving Giannis an outlet pass instead of having him go 1 on 3 in the paint. Even so, I don’t blame Dame for not doing it when Giannis has been unwilling to pass him open looks in the corner:

So, is it the chicken or the egg? Who’s more at fault here? Well, it really doesn’t matter given that neither has been willing to sacrifice.

Khris Middleton will help on both ends when if he ever returns, but he can’t be counted on at this point to play heavy minutes. Even without him, this Bucks roster is still good enough to make the playoffs and perhaps win a round, but with an aging roster and no room to maneuver, their ceiling is nowhere near that of a finals team, much less one that could compete for a title.

This week, please check out my friend Jeje’s article on Stephon Castle’s fit next to Wemby! The Area 51 duo has taken the league by storm, and Jeje does a great job of articulating how that’s happened.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.