As the Mets await NLCS opponent, are the Dodgers or Padres a better matchup?

The New York Mets will travel west to Southern California on Saturday for their best-of-seven NLCS. But they still don’t know which part of Southern California, as they have to wait on Game 5 in the other NLDS between the Los Angeles Dodgers, who won more games than anyone in baseball this regular season, and the San Diego Padres, who have been the sport’s best team since the All-Star break.

Either would represent a stiff challenge for New York. The Mets went 2-4 against the Dodgers during the regular season and 5-2 against the Padres.

Let’s break down the pros and cons of facing these two foes.

Why the Dodgers are a good matchup

Los Angeles’ pitching staff is only going to grow more depleted the deeper it goes in the postseason. While the Mets will enter the NLCS with six viable starting options, the Dodgers are leaning on three pitchers — Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler — who combined to make just five starts of six-plus innings since the start of August. (The Mets have had four such starts since the start of October.)

In all, the Dodgers’ pitching staff had an adjusted ERA worse than the league average, with strikeout and walk rates right around the league average as well. Los Angeles will lean heavily on a bullpen that has gotten better as the season has gone on, with Michael Kopech taking over in the ninth inning and Blake Treinen, who returned from injury, going back to his old form. But the Mets just dismantled a comparable bullpen against the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Dodgers are counting on an inning more per night from its ‘pen so far this postseason than New York.

Why the Dodgers are a bad matchup

Their offense presents a problem in several ways. Los Angeles hit left-handed pitching better than anyone else all season, and the Mets would likely start three of the seven games with lefties, not to mention the significant role David Peterson would play in backing up Kodai Senga.

The Mets were concerned about facing the Brewers because of Milwaukee’s excellent plate discipline and refusal to chase outside the strike zone. The Dodgers were the only team in the National League that chases less, and they have the kind of game-changing power throughout their lineup that the Brewers lack.

And then, of course, there’s that trio at the top of the lineup. The tensest moments of the Division Series came because the Mets struggled at times to handle Bryce Harper; Los Angeles has three hitters of that caliber in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (even if Freeman’s status is in jeopardy because of his ankle injury). Ohtani is on an all-time heater, with 16 homers and 46 RBI over his last 38 games. Betts might be breaking out of a prolonged playoff slump with homers in each of the last two games for Los Angeles. And Freeman is Freeman, one of the pre-eminent Mets killers of this century.

Those three have combined for 300 plate appearances against New York pitchers likely to be on the NLCS roster, with a .924 OPS. (Kudos to Ryne Stanek, who has held the trio to a combined 3-for-17.)

Why the Padres are a good matchup

If ever there was a blueprint for taking on a team like San Diego, the Mets just executed it against the Phillies. The Phillies and the Padres were the two most well-rounded rosters in the postseason, possessing clear strengths on the pitching staff and lacking obvious weaknesses.

The Mets took it to one of Philadelphia’s primary strengths in the bullpen, scoring 17 runs in four games against Phillies relievers. They were able to work around the biggest presences in the Philly lineup because they held down the bottom half of the order. (Philadelphia’s fifth through ninth hitters went 8-for-69.) This is all easier said than done, of course, but the plan is there.

Why the Padres are a bad matchup

Just about anything you can say about what the Mets have done over the last several months can also apply to the Padres. They, too, have put a disappointing 2023 season behind them with the help of a first-year manager. They, too, have been the best team in baseball for an extended stretch of the season. They, too, do pretty much everything well, without real weaknesses.

In Michael King and Dylan Cease, the Padres also have two pitchers likely to get top-five Cy Young votes, and their bullpen is a clear strength, especially when compared to New York’s.

The San Diego offense doesn’t chase like Philadelphia’s, hits the ball out of the park better than Milwaukee’s and puts the ball in play better than anyone else in baseball. It’s diverse and goes nine deep, kind of like New York’s when it’s operating at its peak.

(Top photo of Luis Arraez and Pete Alonso: Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)