Belmont Stakes 2024 Betting Preview: Picks, Odds and Best Bets

This article is part of our Horse Racing series.

Belmont Stakes 2024 Betting Odds, Expert Picks, Posting Time and More

The third and final leg of the Triple Crown heads to New York for the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. Usually the longest leg of the Triple Crown, this year’s version is not at Belmont Park due to renovations and is being shortened two furlongs from 1.5 miles to 1.25 miles to match the length of the Kentucky Derby. Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness champion Seize the Grey headline a field that consists of 10 horses. 

Let’s break down everything you need to know for the race, set for Saturday at 6.41 p.m. EST.

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Horses and Morning-Line Odds

1. Seize the Grey (8-1) Jamie Torres, 10: 4-0-3 (starts: 1st, 2nd, 3rd)
2. Resilience (10-1) Junior Alvarado, 7: 2-1-1
3. Mystik Dan (5-1) Brian Hernandez Jr., 8: 3-2-1
4. The Wine Steward (15-1) Manuel Franco, 6: 3-3-0
5. Antiquarian (12-1) John Velazquez, 4: 2-1-0
6. Dornoch (15-1) Luis Saez, 7: 3-2-0
7. Protective (20-1) Tyler Gaffalione, 4: 0-1-2
8. Honor Marie (12-1) Florent Geroux, 6: 2-2-0
9. Sierra Leone (9-5) Flavien Prat, 5: 3-2-0
10. Mindframe (7-2) Irad Ortiz Jr., 2: 2-0-0

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Belmont Stakes Favorites

No, neither of first two Triple Crown winners are the one to beat according the oddsmakers as Sierre Leone is your morning-line favorite at just under 2-1 odds. Beaten by a nose at the Derby, he skipped the Preakness and will have the advantage of a month-long layoff. Across five starts, he’s never finished worse than second, making it tough to overlook him in your win bets or exotic wagers.

It’s a little bit of a drop-down to Mindframe as the second favorite at 7-2 odds, and you may not be familiar with him since he didn’t race in the Derby or Preakness. He was in action at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, albeit only in a 100k Allowance Optional Claiming race. This will be a huge step up in class and a longer distance than he’s used to, but his impressive speed numbers are difficult to ignore. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. won on Mo Donegal in 2022. 

Early Pace

I’d be remiss not to mention Seize the Grey when it comes to the early pace considering he went gate-to-wire at the Preakness. He was never seriously challenged on soft fractions in which he was able to build a 2+ length lead for the majority of the race. Look for the rest of the field to put more pressure on him this time around.

One horse that will look to do just that is Resilience, who should have an easier time to get to the lead after drawing the 19th spot at the Derby, where he ultimately finished sixth. Resilience has not raced since then and it’s easy to forget his impressive win at the Grade 2 Wood Memorial by over two lengths in April.

Closers

We know that favorite Sierra Leone can make up ground quickly after going from 16th at the three-quarter mile pole at the Derby to just narrowly miss catching winner Mystik Dan, but is there anyone else? The longest shot on the board, Protective, is coming off back-to-back third-place finishes in graded races and features plenty of late speed. He was gaining on Resilience at the Wood Memorial and would benefit from a fast pace as well as the longer distance.

Longshots

There are plenty of potential darkhoses with six horses currently checking in at 10-1 or higher. One of those that should probably be getting more respect is Antiquarian, who has won two of its last three, including an impressive win at the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes. He’ll have two-time Belmont winner John Velazquez Jr. on board as well. Honor Marie is the horse in the field I’m fading as my lowest-rated contender. He has not won in three starts this year and has finished out of the money in 2-of-3 races. 

How to Bet on Belmont Stakes

Win Bet: This is the most common horse racing bet. You’re wagering on a horse strictly to win. Second or dead last both pays zero. Bet on as many horses to win as you like! 

Place Bet: Betting on a horse to place means you’ll win if the horse(s) you bet on finishes first or second, giving you a better chance of cashing a ticket. 

Show Bet: If you bet on a horse to show, you’ll win if your horse finishes in the top three. Best saved for horses with longer odds.

Across the Board: If you bet on a horse across the board, you’re betting them to win, place and show. If your horse wins, you cash all three! A $2 across the board bet will cost $6. My dad’s favorite bet!

Exacta: An exacta wager is betting on the two horses that come in first and second. You can bet on multiple horses to finish first and multiple to finish second to give yourself more chances. Often times, handicappers will do an exacta box with several horses in which they’ll win no matter which of their horses comes in first or second. A $1 exacta wager tends to be the most common. 

Trifecta: Selecting the top-3 finishers is called a trifecta, and often comes with a big payout due to the degree of difficulty – especially in a 20 horse race. Just like the exacta, you can box the trifecta, although the additional combinations make a lot of bettors choose $.50 trifecta wager. 

Superfecta: If you really like to gamble, the superfecta pays out for correctly picking the top-4 finishers in order. Don’t be afraid to throw some longshots in your selections, as you’ll often see a 50-1 shot or longer sneak into the top-4. A $.10 superfecta wager allows for a wealth of combinations. 

Daily Double: If you like to have action on multiple races, the Daily Double pays out for correctly picking horses in two consecutive races. Feel free to pick multiple horses in each race to give yourself more combinations, albeit at a higher cost. You can pair the Kentucky Derby Daily Double with the race before or the race after. 

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Predictions

Assuming The Wine Steward stays in the double-digit odds, I love the value on him to pull off the upset to cap off a third straight surprise winner in the Triple Crown. Beaten by less than a length last time out to Antiquarian as the overwhelming favorite, he’s never finished worse than second across six starts. Coming off three straight runner-ups, he’s good enough to get back in the winner’s circle against this strong field at a nice payout.

My Bets

Win: 4

Exacta: 10/3, 4 ($5 wager costs $10)

Trifecta: 9/3, 4, 10/1, 3, 4, 10 ($1 wager costs $9)