Belmont Stakes Picks: Sierra Leone is the One

And here we go again! The Belmont Stakes (G1), the final leg of the Triple Crown, is Saturday at Saratoga Race Course.

It’s the first time the Belmont is being held at the Spa, the iconic track in upstate New York, and the distance has been shortened to 1 ¼ miles from 1 ½ miles to conform to the different track configuration.

2024 Belmont Stakes Picks: Why Sierra Leone is the Favorite Among Handicappers

Nonetheless, the US Racing Team of handicappers at  usracing.com has put in the research, and studied the past performances, and here are the results: four of the seven handicappers are going with Derby runner-up Sierra Leone to win. Trained by Chad Brown, the bay colt purchased for $2.3 million, is two noses away from being 5-for-5. He’s got new equipment to help keep him running straight, and a new rider in Flavien Prat.

Sierra Leone, second by a nose in the Derby to Mystik Dan in a three-horse photo finish, is the 9-5 morning-line favorite, with new shooter Mindframe (2-for-2 by a combined 21 ¼ lengths) the 7-2 second choice, Derby winner Mystik Dan 5-1, and Preakness winner Seize the Grey is 8-1.

Five points were awarded for first place, three for second, and one for third. Sierra Leone picked up 27 points – three first-place picks and four second-place picks; Mystik Dan was next with 13 points, followed by Mindframe with 10 points. Also receiving the win nods are Seize the Grey and Resilience.

“The best – and most expensive – will rise to the top,’’ says Trackenstein.

The Whiz: Sierra Leone is a deep closer and also had five weeks to rest from Derby to Belmont.

The Professor is going for Mindframe: “We are taking a gamble on potential over experience. Mindframe has been brilliant in winning his two races. It’s a tough spot for a stakes debut, but then — no guts, no glory.”

Mr. Tout likes Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner Resilience: “Had an impossible post (18) for a stalker in the Derby but still made an impressive wide move to be second on the stretch turn before fading to sixth. His flying finish in recent workout suggests he’s very sharp and may be ready to peak at big odds.”

Mystik Dan was not ignored.

Here are the selections:

CaptainMorgan:  1 Seize the Gray 2 Sierra Leone 3 The Wine Steward

Trackenstein: 1 Sierra Leone 2 Mystik Dan 3 Mindframe

Mr. Tout:  1 Resilience 2 Sierra Leone 3 Mindframe

The Professor:  1 Mindframe 2 Sierra Leone 3 Mystik Dan

HorseCents: 1 Mystik Dan 2 Sierra Leone 3 Seize the Grey

Racingfor$: 1 Sierra Leone 2 Mindframe 3 Mystik Dan

The Whiz: 1 Sierra Leone 2 Mystik Dan 3 Honor Marie

Good luck!

The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.