Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Aqueduct, November 16

Race #2 Allowance $92,000 6-Furlongs Dirt – 12:10pm EST

A sharp winner in his return race two starts back for top trainer Brad Cox, Key Point will look to get back to his winning ways when he tops a field of six allowance sprinters on Saturday.

Previously trained by Chad Brown, the well-bred son of Into Mischief had nearly two years off before coming back and winning at first asking for another high profile barn. He could not repeat that success in his second race back, which was at Aqueduct, but must be considered a real danger in here if he can run back to his return race. 

A top threat to the morning line favorite is Toxic Gray. Trained by Mike Miceli, he has won two of four career starts at Aqueduct and comes off a strong second-place finish to the classy El Grande O in his most recent start. One of several with good early speed in the race, he should get a good trip from his outside post.

All the others in this field deserve respect, including the quick Bonus Move, who will break from the rail. He comes in fresh and could be the speed of the speed. If he can clear the field early, he is a threat to go all the way. Off the last race, though, I like Toxic Gray best in this one. He is the top pick.

My Play

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Race #3 Notebook Stakes $100,000 6-Furlongs Dirt – 12:40pm EST

Trainer Wesley Ward is not necessarily known for New York-breds, but he is well respected for his fast 2-year-olds. On Saturday, he has a pair of speedy fleet-footed fillies looking to upset the boys in the $100,000 Notebook Stakes.

Both Phoebeinwonderland and Shoot It True will be returning from layoffs. The former, a daughter of More Than Ready, won her only start back in May at Aqueduct. The latter made two starts, meanwhile, easily winning her debut at Keeneland before running fourth in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs, also in May.

Chief among their competition will be two horses who faced each other in their career debuts. The romping winner of that race eight weeks ago was Man in Finance. A son of Central Banker, he stalked the speed and pounced, winning his only race by better than seven lengths. The horse he beat that day, Kenny Be, stumbled at the start before taking the lead and ultimately running second. Next time out, the son of Complexity blitzed a maiden field in fast time.   

Another horse to watch in this 6-furlong affair is Soontobeking. He has plenty of solid stakes experience and can pass horses. With all the speed in the race, that is an advantage. For that same reason, I am leaning to Phoebeinwonderland as a potential upsetter. She is the top pick.

My Play

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Race #8 Maiden Special Weight $75,000 1 1/16-Miles Turf – 3:10pm EST

Will the twelfth time be the charm for Autumn? We will find out on Saturday when the New York-bred mare will finally look to get over the hump as the morning line favorite in this turf maiden race.

Knocking on the door all season, the daughter of Constitution may have finally found a race with the least resistance. Breaking from the rail, she could have controlling speed in a field with very little early pace. Having finished second or third six times this year on the turf, the 5-year-old mare is certainly due to break through and win one.

Despite running in claiming races in her last four, Starlight Dancer should have solid support in here. The Michelle Nevin-trainee has finished second in each of her last three starts and has the speed figures to compete with this bunch. She also has enough tactical speed to be in the picture early.

Just One More is another one to give serious consideration to here. Although she finished well-beaten in her only start, the Horacia De Paz-trained filly had all kinds of trouble in that debut and is likely to move forward in her second start. Bred for turf on both sides, she also gets blinkers off this time around. She is the top pick.

My Play 

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Race #9 Central Park Stakes $150,000 1-Mile Turf – 3:40pm EST

Coming off a solid performance in his stakes debut, Early Adopter looks like the one to beat among a full field of 2-year-old turf runners in Saturday’s $150,000 Central Park Stakes.

After breaking his maiden at first asking for trainer Chad Brown, the English-bred son of Lope de Vega looked to be a threat at the top of the stretch of the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes, before  getting checked hard. He ran on well to finish third behind a pair of colts who went on to the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. There also looks to be plenty of speed in this race to set the table for his late run. 

His top rival here could be the horse who finished just behind him in the Pilgrim. Like the favorite, Smooth Breeze got up to win his debut, although his came against fellow New York-breds. Moved up to graded stakes company next out, he weakened late but still finished a respectable fourth in the Grade 2 test.

Several others here look to have talent. Among them is the second-time starter Jack and Jim. The son of Slumber overcame a difficult start in his debut to get up and win his debut over the Aqueduct turf. He should only improve off that effort and could be a real factor in his stakes debut for trainer Graham Motion. It’s hard to look past Early Adopter in this spot, however. He is the top pick.

My Plays

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel – Early Adopter over Smooth Breeze, Jack and Jim and Davy Crockett = $30

• $5 Exacta Box – Early Adopter, Smooth Breeze, and Jack and Jim = $30

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