Betting tips for ‘Thursday Night Football’: Cowboys at Giants

Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off with a matchup of NFC East rivals when the Dallas Cowboys visit the New York Giants on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET).

The Cowboys (1-2) have lost two straight home games after defeating the Cleveland Browns on the road to open their season. The Giants (1-2), meanwhile, are coming off their first win, also on the road against the Browns.

Dallas has dominated the matchup between the two teams of late, winning six straight in the series and 13 of 14. The spread on Thursday’s game opened at Cowboys -4 and has continued to tick up.

Giants rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, the sixth overall pick in April’s draft, is coming off two straight stellar performances and has risen to No. 2 in the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds (+260), trailing only Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (+150). Nabers is second in the league with 23 receptions and has hauled in three receiving scores (T-1).

The Cowboys (-105 to make the playoffs) have dipped to 20-1 to win the Super Bowl, while the Giants (12-1 to make the playoffs) remain long shots at 300-1.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Cowboys -6
Money line: Cowboys (-250), Giants (+210)
Over/Under: 45.5

First-half spread: Cowboys -3.5 (Even), Giants +3.5 (-120)
Cowboys total points: 25.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Giants total points: 19.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

The props

Passing

Dak Prescott total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Prescott total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Daniel Jones total passing yards: 199.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Jones total passing TDs: 0.5 (Over -265/Under +210)

Rushing

Devin Singletary total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Rico Dowdle total rushing yards: 39.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Daniel Jones total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Ezekiel Elliott total rushing yards: 24.5 (Over -155/Under +120)

Receiving

CeeDee Lamb total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Malik Nabers total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jake Ferguson total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -105/Under -130)
Brandin Cooks total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Wan’Dale Robinson total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Jalen Tolbert total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -110/Under -130)
Devin Singletary total receiving yards: 14.5 (Over -160/Under +125)

Joe Fortenbaugh’s pick

Cowboys -4 (as featured in My First Bet, currently -6). This is a fantastic bounce-back spot for the Cowboys, who have won 13 of their past 14 games against the Giants, with 11 of those victories coming by more than a touchdown. The look-ahead line here was Dallas -7, but that plummeted Sunday evening thanks to a brutal performance against Baltimore combined with the Giants’ upset win at Cleveland.

Well, you’re never as bad as you looked the previous week, and you’re never as good as you looked the previous week, either. The Giants did everything they could to lose that game in the fourth quarter, but the Browns were too inept to capitalize. Look for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to shred the Giants’ suspect secondary in this one.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info

• All three Cowboys games have gone over the total this season, while all three Giants games have gone under.

• Since 2017, the Cowboys are 11-3 ATS against the Giants. They are 6-1 outright and ATS in seven road meetings in that span, including a 40-0 Week 1 win last season.

• Since 2021, the Cowboys are 27-12 ATS as favorites, the best record in the NFL over that span. They are 11-4 ATS as road favorites in that time, including 4-1 ATS since the start of last season and 12-5 ATS under Mike McCarthy.

• Since 2021, the Cowboys are 12-3 outright and 11-4 ATS after a loss. However, they are 0-3 ATS in their past three games following a loss, including in Week 3.

• The Giants are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games as home underdogs.

• The Cowboys have seven straight outright wins on short rest (5-2 ATS). The Giants have lost six straight games on short rest (3-3 ATS) and are 1-6 outright in that role under Brian Daboll (4-3 ATS).

• Since 2010, divisional home underdogs in September are 54-31-2 ATS (.635). They are 17-9 ATS since 2020.

• In the Offensive Player of the Year race, CeeDee Lamb dropped from +650 to 12-1. He entered Sunday as the second favorite and is now tied with Breece Hall as the third favorite.

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