Bills vs. Dolphins prediction: NFL ‘Thursday Night Football’ picks, odds

On Thursday night, the Buffalo Bills head south to take on the Miami Dolphins in a pivotal early season matchup in the AFC East. 

Both teams are 1-0 after comeback wins in Week 1, and they’ll be looking to secure the top spot in the division with a Week 2 victory. 

Let’s look at the matchups and find where the betting value lies.

When the Bills have the ball

We have a growing sample of what offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants his offense to look like in Buffalo.

In Week 1, the Bills had a 47% neutral pass-play rate, which would have ranked 30th in the NFL last year. Josh Allen had four pass attempts at halftime. 

It’s clear Brady wants to establish the run behind a stout offensive line, and I don’t see that changing on Thursday night against the Dolphins.

Miami’s run defense took a hit over the offseason with the loss of Christian Wilkins.

Last year, the Dolphins allowed 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs with Wilkins on the field and 4.3 with him off, according to Sharp Football.

Their run defense held up well in Week 1, but we’ll see if that remains.

The Bills hope to continue getting rookie Keon Coleman involved on Thursday after he led the team with an 86.7% route run rate and 31.3% first-read rate, per Fantasy Points Data.

However, he could draw attention from elite corner Jalen Ramsey, limiting his upside.

When the Dolphins have the ball

After some noteworthy off-field distractions, Miami’s offense took a while to wake up in Week 1.

The Dolphins ranked 20th in offensive EPA/play in the first half and 14th in the second half. 

However, there are some serious concerns about the new-look offensive line. Miami generated just 2.99 adjusted line yards (29th) and ran for 59 yards on 21 running back carries (2.8 average).

Miami will be without Raheem Mostert and potentially De’Von Achane on Thursday night.

Achane, who had seven catches for 76 yards last week and ranked third on the team with a 46.3% route run rate, would be a tremendous loss as a receiver. 

The Dolphins lost Robert Hunt and Connor Williams to free agency, and Isaiah Wynn is on the PUP list, leaving the team with an entirely new interior offensive line.

That could create problems against a stout Bills front that ranked second in run-stop win rate in Week 1.

In addition, DE Greg Rousseau is coming in off a three-sack game against Arizona.

Tua Tagovailoa ranked just 20th in passing success rate in Week 1, and while he’s capable of another gear offensively, I’m not sure if it will come against the Bills, who have been excellent against him over the years. 

Buffalo has held Tagovailoa to a 61.8% completion rate and six touchdowns to seven interceptions across the last six meetings.

Betting on the NFL?

The verdict

I grabbed the Under right away this week when it was priced at 51 points, but I still don’t mind grabbing it at 49, even 48.5 where it has dropped at a few sportsbooks. 

Prime-time Unders over the last four seasons have hit at a 59% clip, and according to Action Network’s Brandon Anderson, Thursday Night Football games in September and October with totals of 49.5 or higher are 15-4-1 (79%) to the Under.

Pay attention to the weather report, as well. Thunderstorms with high winds are expected in the afternoon and could linger into the evening.

Recommendation: Under 49 points (-110, BetMGM).