‘Black swan’ weather phenomenon may have sunk Bayesian yacht, experts say

A rare and unexpected “black swan” weather event may have led to the Bayesian superyacht’s speedy demise, maritime experts claim.

The spontaneous formation of a tornado-like waterspout would have given the 22 passengers and crew aboard the luxury vessel little to no time to react to the violent storm Monday before the ship capsized and sank, killing one and leaving six others missing.

Marine experts believe the large waterspout — a slim column of spinning air below a thunderstorm that occurs over water — was a “black swan event” or a weather phenomenon characterized by its extreme rarity and severe impact, similar to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, they told the Times UK.

“That water carries significant weight,” Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, told the Times. “And if the waterspout ends up dumping a load of that water on board the vessel, that’s going to cause significant damage.”

The Bayesian is believed to have sunk within minutes after being struck by the early morning storm. Six people, including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and top New York City lawyer Christopher Morvillo, remained missing Wednesday as Italian officials investigate the ship’s sudden sinking.

One expert, Andrea Ratti, a nautical design professor at Milan Polytechnic University, suggested the ship may have sunk so quickly because its windows, portholes or other openings may have been broken or smashed open by the powerful waterspout, allowing the vessel to quickly fill and sink.

However, a UK industry expert said sinking a ship of that size should have taken hours.

“I don’t think the industry has ever faced anything like this. It’s a horror story,” the unnamed expert declared.

Meteorologists told the outlet the weather conditions that led to the ship’s demise were consistent with a waterspout and that a lot of unpredictability comes with tornado warnings.

“There was a big thunderstorm just to the north of Sicily, a lot of lightning activity, lot of heavy rain, very strong signature of what we call ‘cold cloud tops’ on the satellite pictures. All of those things would add up to a thunderstorm that could easily spawn a waterspout,” said Dr. Pete Inness, a meteorology lecturer at the University of Reading in Berkshire, UK.

Inness noted that with tornado warnings, officials can estimate when and where they will happen, but until one forms, they don’t know all the details, including how strong they will be.

Additionally, like tornadoes, waterspouts are short-lived weather events that go undetected on radars. Along with the fact that it was dark out during the storm, it would’ve been difficult for the crew to realize what was happening, Inness said.

There were 18 confirmed waterspouts off the coast of Italy on Aug. 19, according to the International Center for Waterspout Research.

Other experts questioned why the crew wasn’t paying closer attention to various weather warnings ahead of the tragedy.

“I don’t know if there was anyone on board consulting the radar. Let’s say that if I had been on board, at the first sign of a thunderstorm, I would have woken up all the occupants and been ready and alert with lifejackets on until the storm was over,” one of Italy’s leading climate experts, Luca Mercalli, told the outlet.

Even if they had been paying closer attention, it was unlikely the crew could have been prepared for such a “high impact, low probability” weather event, Schanck added.

“I’ve reviewed the forecasts. There was nothing other than thunder. There was nothing that jumped out to me that made it a dangerous decision to anchor there,” he said.

The experts also squashed a theory shared by American entrepreneur Scott Painter, who suggested the ship’s 240-foot-tall mast — the tallest of its kind — may have made the vessel more vulnerable in the powerful weather event.

One rescue diver told Italian media the yacht was “practically intact” underwater, and Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy commander, said the idea that the mast would make the ship unstable was “just incorrect.”

“That mast is designed to have a massive sail hanging off it. So on its own with no sail, that’s not what has caused the boat to go over.”

An official investigation into the incident will likely take months, prosecutors in Sicily said.