Buccaneers-Giants: Top Storylines & Key Matchups in Week 12

Jamel Dean is looking forward to his potential return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ lineup in Week 12. He’s also looking back, recalling a season shift from four years ago he’s hoping his current team can duplicate.

As Dean mused early in the week, the 2024 Buccaneers need to take a page from the 2020 Super Bowl-winning squad and come out of their bye week on a tear. That 2020 team was 7-5 going into its late-season bye but never lost again after the break, toppling eight straight opponents to make it all the way to the risers containing the Lombardi Trophy. This year’s team has more work to do, with a 4-6 record and seven still to play in the regular season, but it is facing a remaining schedule that is the least daunting in the NFL based on their opponents’ 2024 records.

The Bucs likely need to win most of those seven remaining contests if they hope to catch the Atlanta Falcons and capture their fourth straight NFC South title. Atlanta, on a bye this week, is 6-5 and has a calamitous tiebreaker due to a head-to-head sweep of Tampa Bay. First up in the Bucs’ efforts to generate a hot streak are the New York Giants, who are also coming off a bye week after dropping to 2-8 with a 20-17 loss to Carolina in Munich in Week 10.

While it’s the other New York team that has already fired its head coach and general manager this season, the Giants made their own seismic shift earlier this week by benching starting quarterback Daniel Jones, who may have played his last snaps for the franchise. In to replace him is local legend Tommy DeVito, a 2023 undrafted free agent who went 3-3 as a rookie starter last season. The Giants have scored the fewest points in the NFL so far, but DeVito does have some intriguing weapons in a pair of rookies, wideout Malik Nabers and running back Tyrone Tracy.

The Giants also boast the NFL’s most effective pass rush and a very stingy red zone defense. While they have lost five in a row and appear to be looking to the future with their change under center, the Giants are sure to mount a serious challenge to a visiting Buccaneers squad that is on a four-game losing streak of its own. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs come out of their bye week with a trip to the Northeast.

Back From the Bye – It remains to be seen whether the 2024 Buccaneers can go on the same type of post-bye run that they did four years ago, but the week off was undeniably a positive thing for a roster dealing with some key injury issues. Since he suffered a hamstring injury in Week Seven, Mike Evans has targeted a return after the bye and will surely be trying hard to get back on the field against the Giants. Cornerback Jamel Dean could come off of injured reserve this week, as well, and fellow starting corner Zyon McCollum had extra time to recover from the hamstring ailment he incurred at the end of the Bucs’ last game before the bye. It’s even conceivable that Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs could overcome the knee injury he suffered in Week 10, though he would appear to be a longer shot for this weekend than Evans or Dean. Rookie safety Tykee Smith, who has already proved to be a playmaker working out of the slot, missed the last game with a knee injury sustained on the practice field but would be a welcome addition to the secondary if he is cleared to play. The Bucs are actually not getting an advantage over their opponent with their Week 11 bye, because the Giants also had last week off after playing in Germany in Week 10. Still, it was a valuable opportunity for the Bucs not only to get a little – or maybe a lot – healthier but also to have a mental reset after their recent losing streak.

Seeking Explosives – In the same game in which Evans got hurt, fellow starting wideout Chris Godwin suffered a dislocated ankle that will keep him out for at least the rest of the regular season. Recently, rookie Jalen McMillan, the team’s usual third receiver, has missed time due to injuries of his own. While Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen and quarterback Baker Mayfield have done an impressive job of adjusting the offense to move the ball in different ways, the absence of those playmakers has made it hard to generate big gains. The Bucs averaged a little over four plays of 20-plus yards during their first eight games of the season but have none over the last two games combined. The potential return of Evans could help in that regard, but opposing defenses will only focus on him even more than usual if he is the only reliable source of explosive plays. Coen had extra time to continue tinkering with the offense during the bye week, and given how adept he has been at finding answers in his first year calling plays for the Buccaneers, there’s reason to believe he can help Mayfield and company bring back the chunk plays. In this particular week, that effort will have to start with keeping Mayfield upright and giving him enough time to let plays develop, a tough task against the NFL’s most potent pass rush this season. Led by Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns, the Giants have recorded a league-leading 13.09% sacks-per-pass-play rate.

Cutlets on Sunday? – As noted above, Tommy DeVito got a chance to start six games for the Giants last year, and he quickly captured the imagination of Giants fans. That was partly due to his status as a local – he was literally living with his parents 12 minutes from MetLife Stadium – and his Italian heritage. His love of his mother’s chicken cutlets led to his “Tommy Cutlets” nickname, which will surely be rolling off the tongues of many Giants fans now that he has replaced Daniel Jones as the team’s starter. Of course, those fans mostly fell in love with DeVito because he took the team on an unexpected three-game winning streak last November and December after the team’s 2-8 start. It is coincidental but still notable that he is taking over once again after the Giants’ 2-8 start to this season. Jones started those first 10 games and had just eight touchdown passes to go with seven interceptions. DeVito threw five touchdown passes and no interceptions during that aforementioned three-game winning streak last year, and overall in nine game and six starts completed 64.0% of his passes with an 8-3 TD-INT ratio and an 89.2 passer rating. DeVito may not be quite as accomplished as a runner as Jones is, but he did rush 36 times for 195 yards and a touchdown in 2023 and definitely has the mobility to extend plays.

Stoppage Time – Four of the Buccaneers’ six losses this season have come by a final margin of six or fewer points. That includes three “walk-off” losses, two in overtime and most recently one against San Francisco on a field goal as time expired. Tampa Bay has faced some of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, and for stretches has been able to contain them, but the team isn’t getting the defensive stops it needs at the most crucial times. As Co-Defensive Coordinator Larry Foote said earlier in the week: “We’ve been in [it in the] fourth quarter of games. This is the NFL – you’ve got to win the game in the fourth quarter. You’ve got to make the tackles, you’ve got to communicate, you’ve got to make plays. I don’t care what the Giants’ record is, I don’t care who the quarterback is, we know it’s going to be a fourth-quarter game. We’ve got to come up with more plays than them.” The Buccaneers have actually outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter, 87-53 (it’s closer when one includes the 12 points allowed in the two overtime periods), which means the offense has been able to generate points in crunch time. If the defense can start making the plays it expects to at the same time, the Bucs might be able to mount that post-bye winning streak they have been espousing.

1. Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Buccaneers CB Jamel Dean (or Josh Hayes)

New York elected not to dip into a deep pool of quarterback prospects in the first round of last year’s draft like six other teams in the top 12 did. However, they surely do not regret using the sixth-overall selection on LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers. Nabers’ 61 receptions through 11 weeks leads all rookie wide receivers (Raiders tight end Brock Bowers leads all rookies with 70 grabs) and have produced a team-high 607 yards and three touchdowns. He is already the clear focal point of New York’s passing attack, as his 28.9% target share and 41.0% of the team’s air yards both rank fourth among all NFL players this season. His somewhat pedestrian average of 10.0 yards per carry is a function of him having much more success on non-vertical routes as a rookie; those have produced 56 of his 72 targets so far. He also has run in-breaking route on 34.1% of his plays in the passing game. Nabers has played roughly the same amount on both sides of the field, so he is likely to be matched up with Jamel Dean plenty of times if Dean does in fact return from injured reserve this week. Dean, who had 43 tackles and four passes defensed in six games before his hamstring injury, has the footwork and hip agility to stay with Nabers on his quick cuts and the speed to keep up if the rookie does try to go vertical. Getting Tommy DeVito off to a slow start in his second run as the Giants’ starter will probably hinge on how well Dean and the rest of the Bucs’ secondary contains Nabers on Sunday.

2. Buccaneers C Graham Barton vs. Giants DL Dexter Lawrence

The Giants’ offseason trade for former Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns has definitely helped the Giants rev up their pass rush, it’s sixth-year defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence who is the real driving force in that front. His 9.0 sacks this season already represent a new career high for the former first-round pick, and he is likely headed to his third straight Pro Bowl. Lawrence has been double-teamed on 64.6% of his pass-rush snaps this season, the highest rate of any player in the league, but he still leads all interior linemen with 9.0 sacks and has 28 quarterback pressures. Lawrence is massive (6-4, 340) and quick, which makes him a tough out for any interior offensive linemen. In this case, since Lawrence is the nose tackle in the Giants’ base front, he should have a lot of interaction with Graham Barton, the Bucs’ rookie center. Tampa Bay used a first-round pick on Barton, who had played tackle the three previous years at Duke, believing his size and skill set made him a perfect fit for the center position. Barton has made a smooth transition both to the NFL and to the middle of the lane, consistently drawing praise for his play against some of the NFL’s best interior defensive linemen. He’s very athletic, so he has fit well into the Bucs’ gap run calls, and he’s powerful at the point of attack.

3. Giants T Evan Neal vs. Buccaneers OLB Yaya Diaby

The same year (2020) that the Buccaneers drafted Tristan Wirfs with the 13th overall pick, the Giants made Andrew Thomas the first offensive tackle off the board, selecting him fourth overall. Thomas got off to a bit of a slow start in his NFL career but has since developed into one of the league’s best tackles, like Wirfs. Unfortunately for the Giants, Thomas was sent to injured reserve in October by a foot injury and had what could be season-ending surgery. New York turned first to 2022 third-round pick Joshua Ezeudu at left tackle, then later Chris Hubbard, who they signed off San Francisco’s practice squad. Most recently, however, former seventh-overall pick Evan Neal was promoted back to the starting lineup at right tackle in Week 10, with Jermaine Eluemenor switching to the left side. To this point, Neal has not yet panned out for the Giants, and they briefly considered moving him to guard. When that plan was abandoned, Neal became a reserve for most of the 2024 season, playing just two offensive snaps before Week 10. The former Alabama standout was a very highly regarded prospect in 2022 and obviously is athletically gifted, so he could still put it all together in his new assignment. Yaya Diaby led the Buccaneers in sacks with 7.5 as a rookie in 2023, and he rushes off both edges so he should get some action against Neal. Diaby has a quick first step and he seals the edge well against running plays. While he has just 2.0 sacks so far this season, he leads the Bucs’ defense with eight quarterback hits and has a respectable 13.5% pressure rate, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

4. Buccaneers TE Cade Otton vs. Giants LB Bobby Okereke

In the three games the Buccaneers have played since Evans and Godwin were injured, third-year tight end Cade Otton has emerged as Baker Mayfield’s go-to target. His 29 targets and 22 receptions in that span are the most by any Buccaneer, and his 193 receiving yards are more than double the next player on the list. He also scored three times in those three outings. With more opportunities to run a wider variety of routes, Otton has shown an ability to win one-on-one matchups and find open spots in zone coverage. He’s also on the field for almost every offensive play for Tampa Bay, which means his presence doesn’t tip off the Bucs’ run-pass intentions on any given snap. Okereke has really filled up a stat line this season, combining a team-high 75 tackles with 2.0 sacks, four tackles for loss, two quarterback hits, two passes defensed, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. He has also been a very active participant in the Giants’ fourth-ranked pass defense, logging 232 coverage snaps. On those 232 snaps he has been targeted 30 times and allowed only 18 completions for 128 yards. He has allowed a completion percentage of 60.0%, whereas Next Gen Stats says the expected completion percentage on those plays was 78.8%. That has led to a completion rate over expected (CPOE) figure of -18.8%, which is third best among all NFL linebackers in 2024.