Cardinals vs. Brewers odds, prediction: MLB picks, best bets for Thursday

The Brewers and Cardinals renew their National League Central rivalry with a four-game series that starts Thursday night in Milwaukee.

St. Louis was the preseason favorite to win the division with a PECOTA win projection of 85.5, nine better than Milwaukee, which was picked to finish fourth.

A month and a half into the season, the Brewers are in a virtual tie with the Cubs for first place, while the Cardinals sit in familiar territory – last, where they finished 2023.

Thursday’s pitching matchup sets up nicely for a few best bets to target.

Cardinals vs. Brewers odds

Cardinals vs. Brewers prediction

(7:40 p.m. ET)

If nothing else, Brewers right-hander Tobias Myers has been consistent since making his major league debut on April 23. 

The first pitch he ever threw in the bigs was supposed to be down and in but rose to hip level for Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, who sent the four-seamer over the left-field wall at PNC Park. 

In his second start, Myers gave up a first-inning homer to Aaron Judge and a three-run shot to Anthony Volpe in the fifth before being removed.

And last Saturday, in start No. 3, leadoff hitter Nico Hoerner put Myers’ fourth offering in the left-field bleachers at Wrigley Field. Two innings later, Christopher Morel took him deep as well.

Three career MLB starts, three first-inning home runs and five overall — in just 13 innings pitched.

It follows an eight-year minor-league career that saw Myers give up 83 home runs, including 30 last year at Double-A Biloxi.

In his three big-league starts, he’s been able to attack the zone and strike out a few hitters, but his command hasn’t been great, especially in his last start against the Cubs.

Myers is only 25 despite being in the minor leagues since 2016. Even if his stay is a short one in Milwaukee (he’s been filling in on an injury-plagued staff), he fits right in with the Brewers, who have made a movement toward youth this season.

St. Louis, on the other hand, went into the year counting on several players on the downside of their careers. So far, those veterans haven’t shown much, especially on offense.

The Cardinals as a team have slashed .218/.296/.340 for an OPS of .636. All four of those stats sit in the bottom five among the 30 MLB teams.

Catcher Willson Contreras was the one player holding his own, but now he’s on the injured list after suffering a fractured arm in a freak play against the Mets on Tuesday.

Cardinals vs. Brewers best bets

Nolan Arenado to hit a home run (+440, FanDuel)

Last year, the Cardinals hit 209 home runs, which finished in the top third of the entire league. The power numbers are way down in 2024, however, as their 26 deep shots are only one more than the last-place White Sox.

Contreras would have been a natural to extend Tobias’ streak to four games of giving up a home run. Before landing on the IL, he was batting .280 and leading St. Louis with six homers, including four in his last 13 games.

Arenado is showing serious signs of slowing down at age 33, especially with his power, which has fallen off a cliff. His hard-hit and barrel rates are way down, and his expected metrics say it’s not likely to improve much going forward, if at all.

However, he has killed the Brewers over the years with 22 home runs and a career slash line of .307/.381/.617. He especially loves the park currently called American Family Field, where he’s hit six home runs over the past three seasons.

While all HR bets are risky, if you assume Myers is going to serve one or more up again, why not sprinkle some change on a player who has always hit Milwaukee hard and still hits cutters at an elite rate.

Myers, who throws his cutter 25% of the time, has been hit hard on the pitch, serving up two of his five homers this season on it.

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Cardinals First 5 Innings Moneyline (-140, BetMGM)

Sonny Gray, who gets the start against the Brewers after Wednesday’s postponement with the Mets, has only given up three earned runs this season, only one in the first five innings.

He did give up two runs in a 2-0 Brewers win last month, but both runs were given up in the seventh inning — the third time through Milwaukee’s order.

Myers’ early struggles are well-documented above.

Cardinals First-Inning Run Scored (+210, DraftKings)

While we’re expecting a clean first from Gray, Myers’ first-inning jitters appear to only be getting worse.

Against the Cubs last week, he followed up the homer to Hoerner with four consecutive walks. Somehow he got out of the inning with just two runs plated.