Champagne Stakes: Analysis, odds for Breeders’ Cup qualifier

Photo:

Gary Johnson / Eclipse Sportswire

The Grade 1, $500,000 Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday drew a field of 10 2-year-olds. The one-turn mile is part of the Belmont at the Big A meeting and offers a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov 1 and 10-5-3-2-1 qualifying points for the May 3 Kentucky Derby.

The field includes a pair of graded-stakes winners from Saratoga in the Sanford (G3) and the Hopeful (G1) and six who won maiden special weights in their only starts.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Champagne with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The race is scheduled for 3:49 p.m. EDT and is listed as race 8 of 12 on a card that includes four graded stakes.

1. J J Zo Zo, 20-1. Sea Wizard – Jose Sanchez / Jorge Ruiz – 4: 2-0-1 – $121,593. J J Zo Zo started four times at Monmouth Park, with the first three against New Jersey-breds. He broke his maiden by a head in his third race with a front-end effort in a field of 12. Last month he romped by more than eight lengths while racing on the lead again in the Smoke Glacken against open company as an odds-on favorite. Live long shot.

2. Tip Top Thomas, 7-2. Volatile – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 1: 1-0-0 – $55,000. Tip Top Thomas was one of the debut maiden winners. His victory came at Saratoga in August as the 2-1 favorite against a field of 10. One of two in the Champagne field for Todd Pletcher, he pressed the pace and was game to hold onto a head advantage down the stretch. He sold for $160,000 as a son of Volatile, who stands for $15,000. Pletcher has six wins in the Champagne with the likes of Daredevil, Shanghai Bobby, Uncle Mo and Scat Daddy. Win contender.

3. Lethal Speed, 30-1. Kantharos – Parbhoo Shivananda / Jose Gomez – 1: 1-0-0 – $24,000. Lethal Speed rallied from off the pace to break his maiden in his first start, which was at Gulfstream Park a month ago. He was sent off at 12-1 in a field of 11 and won by a half-length. Lethal Speed shipped to New York and had a recent workout at Belmont Park. Toss.

4. Mo Plex, 8-1. Complexity – Jeremiah Englehart / Manny Franco – 3: 3-0-0 – $247,500. This New York-bred is a son of Complexity, who won the 2018 Champagne. Mo Plex broke his maiden at Aqueduct as the favorite in a field of seven state-breds by 10 lengths in June. At the beginning of the Saratoga meeting, he was a front-end winner of the Sanford (G3). Last month, he stumbled out of the gate but still got up to win the Funny Cide against New York-breds. Win contender.

5. Uncaged, 8-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / Joel Rosario – 1: 1-0-0 – $55,000. Uncaged is the other Pletcher maiden winner. He also won at Saratoga in August, but he used a closing trip on a muddy and sealed track at 5-1. The son of Curlin is a WinStar home-bred who is owned in partnership with Repole Stable. Uncaged got an 84 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, just a point below that of stablemate Tip Top Thomas and one of the three highest numbers in the field. The other Pletcher runner.

6. Vekoma Rides, 9-2. Vekoma – John Kimmel / Kendrick Carmouche – 1: 1-0-0 – $49,500. Vekoma Rides broke his maiden three weeks ago at Aqueduct against a field of seven at 4-1. He pressed the early pace, moved to the lead around the turn and was eased up as he drew off to win by five lengths. Considering the success of first-year sire Vekoma, he sold for only $150,000 this year at Ocala. Trainer John Kimmel had three wins at the current BAQ meeting. Hot trainer.

7. Smoken Wicked, 15-1. Bobby’s Wicked One – Dallas Stewart / Dylan Davis – 4: 1-1-1 – $99,600. This Louisiana-bred was a debut winner on a sloppy and sealed track in June at Evangeline Downs as the even-money favorite in a field of six. He changed to the barn of Dallas Stewart after that victory and made three starts in stakes races. Smoken Wicked was second in the Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs in June, third in the Saratoga Special (G2) and fourth in the Hopeful (G1) last month. Toss.

8. Colonel Bob, 20-1. Yorkton – Robert Reid Jr. / Mychel Sanchez – 1: 1-0-0 – $30,000. Colonel Bob beat a field of nine at Parx Racing in his first start versus a field of nine at 9-2. Going seven furlongs, he pressed the pace and drew away easily to win by more than five lengths. Horses trained by Butch Reid often run well when they ship to Aqueduct. Toss.

9. Executive Order, 8-1. Unified – Phil Serpe / Jose Lezcano – 1: 1-0-0 – $44,000. This Maryland-bred broke his maiden at Saratoga at the end of August in one of the maiden special weights that is restricted to horses who sold at auction for less than $50,000. Executive Order sold for $18,000 as a weanling and won that maiden race by almost eight lengths at 5-1. Toss.

10. Chancer McPatrick, 2-1. McKinzie – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 2: 2-0-0 – $220,000. Chancer McPatrick won both of his starts with a last-to-first rally in his debut at Saratoga in July as the 2-1 favorite against a field of 10. With another closing trip he became the only Grade 1 winner in the field in the seven-furlong Hopeful even though Flavien Prat lost his iron at the start of the race. His Hopeful victory earned the highest speed figure in the field. Brown has four Champagne victories since 2016 with Blazing Sevens, Jack Christopher, Complexity and Practical Joke. Top choice.

Summary: The Champagne sets up as a matchup between the six recent maiden winners who have run only once and the three more experienced stakes winners. The pair of Todd Pletcher trainees, Tip Top Thomas and Uncaged, are the best of the maiden winners along with Vekoma Rides. Graded-stakes winners Mo Plex and Chancer McPatrick combine to be undefeated in five starts. The Chad Brown runner just seems to be faster.

Chancer McPatrick is the top choice and can be used in exactas with Tip Top Thomas, Uncaged and Vekoma Rides.