Chiefs vs. Falcons odds, picks: Week 3 ‘Sunday Night Football’ predictions, best bets

One team in the NFL that’s still likely to divide opinions is the Falcons. 

Atlanta picked up its first win of the season with a game-winning touchdown drive inside the final two minutes of the fourth quarter against the Eagles on Monday night.

Thus, it’ll have some momentum heading into its Sunday night game against Kansas City.

As for the Chiefs, they’ll have to overcome the loss of its starting running back, Isiah Pacheco, to a fibula injury.

With the Chiefs laying 3.5 points on the road, it might take a little while before they can adjust to playing without Pacheco.

Chiefs analysis

Despite everything we’ve heard about Kansas City’s plans to push the ball down the field, the results haven’t quite been there.

According to Pro Football Reference, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the second-fewest intended air yards per pass attempt (5.1).

Mahomes is also getting rid of the ball fairly quickly, ranking second in fewest seconds per dropback pass attempt.

Therefore, given those constraints, it’s even more difficult for plays to develop down the field.

While last season taught us that you can’t ever write off this Chiefs team, something feels particularly off about them.

For example, Kansas City is converting just 29.4% of its third-down opportunities, down from 43.3% in 2023. 

That third-down conversion rate could dip further now that Pacheco is out with an injury.

Falcons analysis

The Falcons looked determined to continue answering the bell against the Eagles on Monday night in a back-and-forth game with seven lead changes.

Atlanta put up 385 yards of offense—159 more than it had in Week 1.

Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins looked much better in his second game back from a torn Achilles, completing 20-of-29 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns.

What was also important was Cousins finishing the game without turning the ball over.

If the Falcons can consistently get Cousins playing at a high level, he’ll be the final piece on a team already with a solid foundation.

Atlanta has enough quality up and down its roster to compete immediately, as it’s 13th overall in total DVOA.

With Pacheco sidelined, Atlanta might not need to bring an extra player inside the box and can instead drop back in coverage against the Chiefs’ pass offense.

It’s worth noting that the Falcons are already stingy against the pass, ranking seventh with 156 yards allowed per game. 

Chiefs vs. Falcons pick

While both of these teams were somewhat fortunate in their victories, the Chiefs have the experience of knowing how to win close games.

Because of that experience, we must be somewhat careful when assessing Kansas City’s luck factor.

How often do we watch a game only to see the opponent and not Kansas City make the critical mistake in the waning minutes?

Betting on the NFL?

As a result, if you’re looking to fade the Chiefs, you might not get a better opportunity than in the first half. 

According to the Action Network, Kansas City is on an 0-7 run on the first-half spread as a favorite of 2.5 or more points.

With that trend active for Sunday night, the Falcons are worth a look as +2.5 home underdogs.

Recommendation: Falcons first half +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.