College football odds, predictions: Why Northern Illinois is a CFP sleeper

As we build our College Football Playoff portfolio throughout the season, we’re looking to take advantage of a market that is slow to react. 

Last week, we snapped up UNLV, which was coming off a road win over Power Four opponent Houston. The Running Rebels were listed at 22/1 to make the CFP, and after their 72-14 shellacking of Utah Tech on Saturday have dipped to 15/1 on FanDuel. 

While my stated goal in the preseason was to add teams in the 20/1 to 40/1 range to either make the CFP or to win the national championship, a long shot has hit the market this week that has way too much value at its current number. 

Northern Illinois just became the first MAC school to defeat an Associated Press top-five opponent.

The Huskies entered the season with 80/1 odds to make the CFP, but after their monumental win at Notre Dame over the weekend, their odds remained unchanged. 

As I said, this relatively new market is super slow to adjust. 

Is this a situation where multiple books are hanging stale numbers or is NIU still drawing dead against their G5 competition? It’s the former and let me explain why. 

For starters, it’s likely we’re going to have a logjam of one-loss G5 champions. And when that happens, the committee will need to scrutinize resumes. 

While the Notre Dame victory is likely to lose a bit of shine, the Irish’s schedule all but guarantees that they’ll finish the season ranked. 

The real challenge for Northern Illinois will be winning the MAC with just one loss on the season. The good news is that the letdown factor after the school’s biggest victory has been smoothed over by a perfectly timed bye week.

The Huskies can bask in their win in South Bend for the next week and still get back into the swing of things before they host Buffalo on Sept. 21. 

The other scheduling wrinkle they have going in their favor is an upcoming road trip to North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have been dreadful defensively in the first two weeks, ranking 107th in total defense while giving up 36 points per game.

Another upset on the road in Raleigh could position NIU for a top-15 national ranking in both polls. 

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The new division-less MAC format is another plus for NIU. Drawing both Bowling Green and Toledo could have spelled disaster under the previous format. But a split against the Falcons and Rockets would leave them with a manageable stretch run with roadies at Ball State, Western Michigan and Miami (Ohio). 

On the field, this NIU team has the formula to be consistent week to week. It returned four starters on the offensive line and a star running back in Antario Brown. Through two weeks, NIU is in the top 20 in rushing with a robust 251 yards per game on the ground. 

Defensively, the Huskies got better as 2023 progressed and they’ve built on that momentum. A veteran secondary put the shackles on Riley Leonard and the Notre Dame passing attack (163 yards, 2 INTs). 

The combination of a gritty rushing attack and a “No Fly Zone” secondary is a winning formula moving forward. This isn’t a flash-in-the-pan kind of team that is relying on hero ball moments from junior quarterback Ethan Hampton. 

Thomas Hammock also knows how to coach in close games. Dating back to 2021, he has won 12 one-possession games. That kind of experience in stressful end-of-game situations will come in handy as NIU looks to punch a ticket to the CFP.