College Football Playoff 2024 projections: A new No. 1, Ohio State hits the road

My pool of teams did not change from last week to this week, but Ohio State’s inexplicable home loss to Michigan and Miami’s loss at Syracuse certainly shook up the seeding.

For weeks I had the Buckeyes winning the Big Ten title game and landing the No. 1 seed. Now, I have them as the No. 9 seed, playing a first-round road game at No. 8 seed Tennessee. Though it’s certainly possible those two 10-2 teams would be flipped.

I have 10-2 Miami falling from No. 6 in the rankings last week to No. 11 this week, behind 11-1 Boise State but above 9-3 Alabama. If so, the Canes would be the last at-large team, putting them in danger if 9-3 Clemson steals a bid in the ACC Championship Game. Because I can’t imagine the committee dropping out an 11-2 SMU team for losing a game that Miami failed to qualify for.

In this scenario, I have both Texas and Penn State sustaining a second loss in their conference title games but remaining above 11-1 Notre Dame in the rankings. That’s the logical thing to do, but don’t put it past the committee to order them by losses. In which case, the Irish would land the coveted No. 5 seed without playing.

Finally, I no longer believe an 11-2 Big 12 champ, either Arizona State or Iowa State, can pass a 12-1 Boise State team if the Broncos win the Mountain West title game. As of last week, the committee had the Broncos five spots above the Sun Devils and seven spots above the Cyclones, and Boise will be facing a Top-25 UNLV team. The Broncos could even move up to the No. 3 seed if Clemson wins the ACC title game.

 (Photo of Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel and coach Dan Lanning: Tom Hauck / Getty Images)