College football Week 5 predictions: Georgia vs. Alabama, more picks against the spread

Texas is the No. 1 team in the nation. Ole Miss owns the greatest point differential in SEC history (through four games). Tennessee has been the most dominant on both sides of the ball. 

But the SEC goes through Georgia and Alabama — until proven otherwise. 

The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide have combined to win the nation’s top conference in nine of the past 10 seasons. They split a pair of national championship games. They have faced off in the SEC title game in two of the past three seasons. 

On Saturday, they will face off for the first time in 21 years without Nick Saban on the sideline. It will be the first time that Alabama is a home underdog in 17 years (91 games). It is the first time the Crimson Tide will be an underdog in the regular season since 2015, when Saban — with the assistance of longtime defensive coordinator Kirby Smart — led Alabama to a blowout win over Georgia. 

Alabama, plus points, is always an appealing option, especially since the Bulldogs were most recently seen without multiple injured starters, struggling to get past Kentucky, 13-12, hours after the Tide annihilated Wisconsin. 

But even at its peak, Georgia is known to sweat. 

In 2021, the Bulldogs scored 10 points in the season opener and lost the SEC title game to Alabama before coming back to beat the Tide in the national championship. In 2022, the Bulldogs trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter against a Missouri team that finished 6-7, and were an Ohio State field goal away from a playoff loss, before capping their undefeated season with the largest margin of victory in the history of the national championship. 

The Bulldogs always bounce back because Smart has taken his mentor’s place as the country’s best coach, constructing the nation’s most talented and disciplined roster, which now features a potential top 10 pick at quarterback and the only defense in the nation yet to allow a touchdown this season. 

Tuscaloosa provides a significant edge for the Tide, but it has only been a year since Texas left Bryant-Denny Stadium with a win. If Saban — who went 5-1 against Smart — didn’t retire, Alabama might be favored in this game. 

But now it is Georgia (-2) that has the biggest difference-maker in the sport. 

Virginia Tech (+19.5) over MIAMI

The Hurricanes will fall back to earth at some point. Perhaps the blowout streak stops this week, when Miami — which has faced three defenses ranked below 120th — faces the Hokies, who own a top 25 pass defense. 

RUTGERS (-2) over Washington

The Scarlet Knights should take advantage of Friday night’s lights, facing an opponent that hadn’t left Seattle this season. Good luck finding a more ill-fitting Big Ten matchup. 

Kentucky (+17.5) over OLE MISS

The Rebels’ annual soft non-conference schedule doesn’t help come fall. Ole Miss hasn’t covered an SEC-opener since 2019. Its past two meetings against Kentucky have been decided by a total of four points. 

MICHIGAN (-9.5) over Minnesota

The Wolverines saved their season against USC despite throwing for just 32 yards. Another 60 minutes built upon the strength of their defense and ground game is the right recipe against the Gophers, who are coming off a 31-14 home loss to Iowa after allowing only 62 yards passing by former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara. 

Oklahoma State (+4.5) over KANSAS STATE

Loser leaves the Big 12 title race. Very little separates this pair of preseason conference contenders, who both suffered losses last week. 

USC (-15.5) over Wisconsin

You last saw the Badgers being humiliated at home after quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was carted off with a torn ACL. His replacement (Braedyn Locke) is a 50-percent career passer, who will receive little help from a defense ranked 118th in the nation in opponents’ completion percentage. 

Louisville (+6.5) over NOTRE DAME

Riley Leonard will have to use his arm because of the impressive Cardinals defensive front, which is limiting runners to 3.3 yards per carry this season and held the Irish to 1.6 yards per carry in Louisville’s double-digit win last season. The Cardinals are one of only three teams in the nation without a turnover this season. 

Oklahoma (-2) over AUBURN

Both teams have benched their starting quarterbacks. The backups aren’t great alternatives. But the Sooners defense — which kept Tennessee’s explosive offense in check — will silence the Tigers, who have scored 14 points in each of this month’s two home losses. 

Mississippi State (+38.5) over TEXAS

On principle, I can’t lay more than 38 points in an SEC game. Arch Manning — fresh off two interceptions in his first start against Louisiana-Monroe — isn’t at Quinn Ewers’ level yet. 

Ohio State (-23.5) over MICHIGAN STATE

The Buckeyes have won their past seven games against the Spartans by an average of more than 30 points. The Buckeyes’ seventh-ranked run defense will force Michigan State to turn to an injury-ravaged receiving corps and a quarterback (Aidan Chiles) with seven interceptions in his first three starts against FBS opponents. 

CLEMSON (-21.5) over Stanford

As long as the Tigers — who have scored 125 points in their past two games — don’t face a playoff team, they can still look like a playoff team. Stanford’s Ashton Daniels has thrown seven interceptions in his past five Power Four meetings, while completing less than 56 percent of his passes and taking 13 sacks. 

Illinois (+18) over PENN STATE

The Illini are one of only two teams in the nation with multiple wins over ranked teams this season, with the most recent coming in front of more than 86,000 fans as a near-double-digit underdog at Nebraska. Since 2015, Brett Bielema’s teams are 18-5 against the spread as road dogs. 

Betting on College Football?

Arizona (+11.5) over UTAH

If Cam Rising isn’t back, the Wildcats are treated to a freshman quarterback with five picks in less than four full games of action. If Rising returns, the Utes may still struggle to slow a Wildcats offense that scored 42 points in a win over Utah last season and currently ranks seventh in the nation in yards per play. 

Oregon (-24) over UCLA

The Bruins don’t deserve the Rose Bowl. They’ve dropped five of their past seven conference games in Pasadena — including a recent 42-13 loss to Indiana — where the school has seen the largest decrease in Power Four attendance in the past eight years. 

Best bets: Michigan, Oklahoma State, Illinois 
This season: 30-30 (4-8) 
2014-23 record: 1,272-1,206-30