Cowboys vs. Giants prediction: Can Dallas bounce back on TNF?

A classic NFC East rivalry will take center stage at the start of Week 4 of the NFL when the New York Giants play host to the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. Dallas enters as a 5.5-point favorite on the road with the total set at 45.

The Cowboys have won six consecutive head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, with New York’s last win coming on Jan. 3, 2021. Dallas has covered the spread in five of those six victories.

Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 26, 7:15 p.m. CT

Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Dallas Cowboys (1-2) vs. New York Giants (1-2) odds

Point spread: Cowboys -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Cowboys -250/Giants +200

Over/under: 45

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

NFL Week 4 picks: How to bet Ravens-Bills

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants prediction

Both teams enter the matchup with 1-2 records, and they need a primetime victory to help build some momentum in the early part of the 2024 season.

Dallas has underperformed thus far after three consecutive 12-win seasons, including a division title last year. The Cowboys have surrendered 72 points in consecutive losses to the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints.

The Giants, meanwhile, opened the year with defeats to the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders. They notched their first win of the season with a 21-15 victory over the Cleveland Browns last weekend, thanks to a two-touchdown effort by rookie receiver Malik Nabers.

While the lookahead markets don’t carry as much weight at this point in the season, it is interesting to see how little this line has moved. The Cowboys were listed as six-point favorites in this matchup over the summer when limits weren’t as high.

Dallas was trading as low as -4.5 in the market earlier this week, but bettors have pushed the spread closer to a touchdown. That’s a sign the market could move this back to six by kickoff.

The Cowboys seem like the right side in this one-sided rivalry.

Dallas’ defense has shown flaws in the opening month, but New York’s offense isn’t equipped to take advantage of that unit. The Giants rank 20th in offensive DVOA through three weeks after ranking 30th in 2023. They are 29th in the league with a scoring average of 15 points per game.