Democrats eye pivotal New York races as they seek to win back House

Democrats have their sights on New York next week, as they seek to win back the House of Representatives following a surprise Republican surge in the Empire state two years ago.

Just four seats are needed for Democrats to win a majority in the House, which could prove a crucial stay on Donald Trump’s power if he wins the presidency.

They are particularly focused on four House districts in New York that Republicans won by fewer than five points in 2022 – all in districts that Biden effectively carried in 2020. With a larger turnout expected this year, Republicans are seen as vulnerable.

As the election looms, the races in New York have taken on a national focus, with more than $111m spent across three competitive districts alone. Mike Johnson, the Republican House speaker, has made repeated trips to New York to bolster his colleagues, and Donald Trump has visited the state three times in recent months.

“New Yorkers are used to being irrelevant in national elections,” said Lawrence Levy, former chief political columnist for Newsday and executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University.

“It’s a deep blue state, it’s assumed the Democrat is going to win [the presidential election]. And even in congressional races – while we always have a number of competitive races – they don’t matter, because the differences between the two parties in terms of who controls the House is usually large enough that any one, two or five races aren’t going to change anything. But this year, control of Congress could run right through New York.”

Johnson outlined the importance of the New York delegation when he spoke at a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, where he presented an optimistic view of his candidates’ chances in the state.

“We are about to grow that majority [in the House]. That is about to happen on November 5,” Johnson said. “New York is going to make that happen. You’re going to elect your incumbents here and our challengers; you’re going to make the big difference.”

Republicans took control of the chamber in 2022 through unexpected wins in California and New York – traditionally blue states.

Despite Johnson’s bullishness, several Republicans that prevailed then now appear vulnerable. Mike Lawler, whose district is just to the north of New York City, won election by fewer than 2,000 votes in 2022; Anthony D’Esposito, who represents an area just to the east of the city, won by 9,700. Further north, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams each triumphed by fewer than 5,000 votes.

Levy said it could be a very different election this time out.

“We had kind of a mini red tide in New York [in 2022] that was related to post-pandemic issues that brought a surge in crime, inflation and other things so that folks who normally vote Democratic came out for Republicans,” Levy said.

“But what you also saw was a surge of turnout among Republicans and a drop-off among Democrats. The turnout model in a presidential year is very different: you’re going to get many more voters, many more Democrats who only come out in presidential years. And that’s a real challenge for the Republicans, who are out-gunned usually when it comes to pure numbers.”

With the stakes so high, many of the races have become contentious, including in the 17th district, a suburban area just north of New York City, where Lawler had a contentious debate with Mondaire Jones, his Democratic opponent, last week.

Lawler, a Trump supporter who opposes abortion rights but has said he would not vote for a national ban, accused Jones of being extreme. Jones is a one-time progressive who lambasted police violence during his successful 2020 run for office, but has since been critical of left-leaning Democrats. “At the end of the day, if it talks like a socialist, votes like a socialist – folks, it’s socialist,” Lawler said, which prompted a vehement response from Jones.

“If it talks like a fascist and supports a fascist for president of the United States for the third consecutive presidential election, then it’s a mini-fascist,” Jones said.

Candidates in New York have regularly sought to tie their opponent to the less popular aspects of their parties, said Mona Kleinberg, a professor of political communication at the City University of New York.

“So the Democrats will paint the Republican as being closely affiliated with Trump and vice versa. They do whatever they can to try to move to the middle, [but] the opposition will try to always make it seem as though they are just an extension of these two candidates that are perceived or painted as very extreme by the opposing parties.”

Some influences on the race have had less to do with political positions. Earlier this month Lawler was embroiled in controversy after photos emerged of him wearing blackface at a Halloween party in college. Lawler said he had been dressed as Michael Jackson and the costume was “a genuine homage to one of my childhood idols”.

“I am a student of history and for anyone who takes offense to the photo, I am sorry,” Lawler said.

D’Esposito, whose district borders the New York borough of Queens, has been caught up in a scandal of his own. The New York Times reported in September that D’Esposito hired both his fiancee’s daughter and a woman with whom he was having an affair to work in his district office, potentially violating the House of Representatives code of conduct. The Republican called the story “a slimy, partisan ‘hit piece’” but did not deny the accusations.

Along with the insults, and the sprints to the political middle ground, has come money: lots of it. More than $36m has been spent in Lawler’s district, nearly $20m of which came from outside groups, including $8.8m spent by a Republican Super Pac. Further north, $38.4m has been spent on the race between Molinaro and his opponent, Josh Riley, in what has become the fourth most expensive race in the country.

In the month leading up to 10 October, $46m in advertising money was spent on House races in New York state – second only to the much larger state of California, which has its own slew of competitive House races.

The path to controlling the House may well lie between these two states.