Devils vs. Islanders prediction: NHL picks, bets, odds

For the second time this season, Metropolitan rivals New Jersey and New York will meet Saturday at UBS Arena.

The Islanders won the first matchup 4-3 in overtime in New Jersey.

Devils vs. Islanders odds

Devils vs. Islanders prediction

(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

The Islanders deserve plenty of credit for their recent play while playing without two of their most important skaters, Mathew Barzal and Adam Pelech.

They have displayed a well-organized team game, which has resulted in wins in three of the last four matchups.

They proved me wrong last time out in Ottawa, as they shut down a potent Senators attack en route to a 4-2 victory and allowed just eight high-danger chances. 

Over the last five games the Islanders have held opponents to just 3.08 expected goals against per 60.

They have scored only 2.60 goals for per game in that span though, and rank 28th in goals scored per game this season.

New Jersey has struggled to find consistency in their first season under Sheldon Keefe, but look to be trending in the right direction right now.

Since their loss to the Isles on Oct. 25 the Devils have played to a record of 4-1-0 and a +12 goal differential.

They have allowed only 25.03 shots against per 60 and allowed only 2.41 goals against per 60 in that span. 

The Devils like to play a highly possessive style, which can be an effective way to limit opponents to low shot totals by spending lots of time at the other end of the ice.

When they get out of rhythm it can lead to high quality chances going the other way, but their puck management in the most important areas of the ice has been improving as we get deeper into the year.

While a 9-5-2 record is far from a disappointment, the Devils likely would hold a slightly better mark if goaltender Jacob Markstrom had played a the level he offered the Flames last season.

In his initial 11 starts, Markstrom has played to a -3.5 GSAx rating, after posting the ninth-highest GSAx in the league last year of +13.7.

If Markstrom can trend toward the elite level he played at last season, the Devils should prove to be one of the league’s better defensive sides.

Devils backup Jake Allen has been excellent of late, and holds a +2.2 GSAx and .904 save % this season.

It’s possible he will get the start in this matchup, and that decision does not hold much significance from a handicapping perspective. 

Ilya Sorokin is expected to get the start for the Islanders after resting Thursday night in Ottawa.

He has played to a +4.4 GSAx and .921 save percentage this season, and is certainly in the mix for the Vezina Trophy at this point. 

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Devils vs. Islanders pick

The Islanders have had a difficult time generating offense this season, and with Mathew Barzal out of the equation are offering little in the way of game-breaking talent.

They will likely look to simplify and make safe plays in this matchup, and avoid sparking the Devils’ high-powered transition game. 

A juiced total of 6.5 is quite a high number for an Islanders game, and I’m not convinced a matchup versus the Devils calls for it.

At -140 or better I see value backing this game to stay under 6.5 goals. 

Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-120, BetMGM) | Play to Under 6.5 (-140)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.