Dodgers vs. Padres Game 3 prediction: NLDS odds, picks, best bets Tuesday

The rivalry between the Dodgers and Padres took another twist on Sunday when San Diego hit six home runs in a dominant 10-2 victory to tie the series at one game apiece.

There was plenty of chirping back and forth on both sides, from a Padres hitter getting struck inside the batter’s box to L.A. fans hurling baseballs and debris onto the playing area from the outfield seats.

There’s no love lost between these teams and their fan bases, with the Padres desperate to get out of the Dodgers’ shadow and win their first World Series title. While the Padres have a bit of a little brother syndrome, this team is well-stocked to compete with the Dodgers.

Although Los Angeles is more than capable of bouncing back in Game 3, I’ve spotted an intriguing angle that supports a play on San Diego for the first five innings.

Dodgers vs. Padres odds

Dodgers outlook

There was a time when the mention of Walker Buehler on the mound would’ve seemed like a lock for a Dodgers victory. However, injuries have limited Buehler to just 28 starts over the last three seasons.

After missing all of 2023 due to a second Tommy John surgery, Buehler returned to action in May but missed another two months after hip inflammation in June.

He went just 1-6 during the year with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. 

His command has been an issue, as his 3.35 walks per nine innings is the second-highest of his career. Moreover, his Called Plus Swinging Strike Rate of 26% is the worst mark of his career.

This is a worrying sign for Buehler, given his K/9 ratio is at a career-low. He’s also surrendering home runs at an alarming rate of 1.91 per nine innings. 

While he can still rediscover his form, he hasn’t pitched since Sept. 26, when he allowed one run on five hits in five innings against the Padres. Buehler departed the game trailing 1-0, and the Dodgers rallied from a 2-0 deficit in the seventh inning to win, 7-2. 

Although the Padres lost the game, they would’ve cashed a first-five wager on the spread and moneyline. 

Padres outlook

The Padres will counter with Michael King, who as been a full-time starter since joining San Diego as part of the trade that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees.

Despite being a decent pitcher for the Yankees, there weren’t many opportunities for King to display his quality as a starter. In 115 appearances in New York, he made only 19 starts.

With the Padres, he has made 30 starts in 31 appearances and finished the season 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA and a 10.42 K/9 ratio. 

King is incredibly talented with a four-pitch arsenal, and he’s pretty balanced with his approach, throwing each pitch at least 23% of the time. His CSW% is elite at 31.3%, as is his 0.88 HR/9 ratio.

He was stellar in his first playoff start, scattering five hits in seven shutout innings against Atlanta in Game 1 of the Wild Card round. 

King has been able to stay on schedule, pitching once a week every Tuesday since Sept. 17. Thus, he’s been able to establish a rhythm in the playoffs, while there’s a legitimate potential that Buehler could be facing a bit of rust since his last outing. 

Dodgers vs. Padres pick

Under normal circumstances, the Dodgers probably wouldn’t be handing the ball to Buehler in this spot.  However, they’re already without starters Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May.

The Padres went 8-5 during the regular season against the Dodgers, so they’ll have plenty of confidence with the series switching to San Diego.

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

While you might think the Dodgers are a perfect candidate to bounce back after allowing double-digit runs, teams in this spot since 2012 are just 16-26 against the spread on the first-five run line.

Moreover, if we adjust our parameters to include only road dogs in a Game 3, they’re 0-3 against the first-five run line. 

Best bet: Padres F5 run line (-110, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.