Eastern Conference executive evaluates seven Knicks’ NBA Draft prospects

The New York Knicks have an obvious type.

They want players who dive into the stands like Josh Hart, who take charges like Jalen Brunson, who set screens like Isaiah Hartenstein, who box out like Mitchell Robinson. When it comes to the NBA Draft, this version of the Knicks has always preferred someone tough.

Such is the way of the teams that Tom Thibodeau leads. The Knicks head coach has a say in the team’s draft process, at times acting as the loudest voice in the room. He was an outspoken advocate for Immanuel Quickley at No. 25 in 2020, Quentin Grimes at No. 25 in 2021 and Miles McBride at No. 36 that same year.

So in evaluating players the Knicks could select in this year’s draft, which will occur Wednesday and Thursday, let’s shy away from looking at players projected to hear their names called only in the New York’s range. The Knicks have two first-round picks heading into the draft: Nos. 24 and 25. And if they use either of them, it could be on someone who fits their culture.

The Athletic has picked out seven prospects whose styles fit this Thibsian way of basketball, competitive collegians who the Knicks could consider at the end of the first round, and asked one question about each of them to an Eastern Conference executive who has a background in scouting.

Here is what that executive said:

(Note: Answers have been edited for clarity and brevity.)

Ryan Dunn

6-foot-6 wing | 21 years old | Virginia

Sam Vecenie’s draft positioning in mock draft: No. 25 to the Knicks.

Question: Dunn has been viewed as one of the best defensive prospects on the wing. His size and frame should allow him to defend almost anyone on the court. The biggest problem with Dunn is his most used play type is off of cuts. He has almost no offensive game.

He took 28 catch-and-shoot attempts this season and only hit 18 percent of those shots, according to Synergy Sports. His game is strictly around the rim. Is there a place for an elite defensive prospect with almost no offensive game in the NBA?

Answer: I will say this: I’ve seen people compare him to OG (Anunoby). He doesn’t quite have the strength or athleticism of OG. He’s got good hands and makes a lot of plays defensively and he’s got a decent body and is an above-average athlete, but he’s not top-tier like OG. In some ways, he’s more like a bigger Matisse Thybulle with the blocks and steals he gets.

Some of the gambling versus being (at the) elite point of attack might not be up Thibs’ alley. But yeah, he can defend.

The offensive game is a challenge, particularly since he just lost confidence in his shot during the season and didn’t make any 3s for months. A lot of what needs to be done there, working on shooting techniques, is mental. He doesn’t create much.

He’s CAA, so you would think that he’s in play for the Knicks at No. 24, 25, and he has some development potential over the next couple of years to turn into a good defender who can make a wide-open shot on offense, but it’s a ways away.

Kyshawn George

6-foot-7 wing | 20 years old | Miami (Fla.)

Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 20 to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Q: George is a skilled wing with great size. He has shown flashes at times but has also disappeared in spots. He dipped to single digits in scoring in 18 of his 31 games and cracked double-digit shot attempts in only five games. How do you project upside in a passive/low usage player?

A: He’s way below average athletically for an NBA player, even at the size that he’s at, so he doesn’t have much ability to create separation. His path long term is probably to be a special shooter. He could maybe be like Cam Johnson of the Nets as a guy with size that can shoot the ball, but Johnson played five years of college. Kyshawn is old for a freshman, so Cam was like three years older when he left college. But the ability to shoot on the move and run off screens and fire is probably the way he’ll be able to get shots in the NBA.

I don’t think he’s athletic enough to do much else, but that has not been his style of play or what his game has been growing up. He’s been more of a ballhandler. And so, I think he’s gonna have a very challenging adjustment for several years. I don’t think he thinks he’s Ducnan Robinson, you know? But he can’t be the type of player that he has wanted to be or has tried to be in college, and the lower usage rate is indicative of that. He was not able to get shots as a college player. And then lack of physicality, lack of strength, lack of athleticism are problems on the defensive end, as well.

Yves Missi

6-foot-11 big man | 20 years old | Baylor

Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 21 to the New Orleans Pelicans.

Q: It’s easy to see what Missi will do in the NBA. He’s a near 7-footer that rolls to the hoop and finishes well. On the defensive end, he moves his feet and is a rim protector, using his 7-foot-2 wingspan. He played a small offensive role at Baylor, averaging only 6.7 shots per game in 22 minutes.

What are the things you look for in big men with smaller roles in college to project them to be starters at the NBA level? How do you distinguish a Michell Robinson from a Mo Bamba?

A: Robinson is much, much more athletic than Mo Bamba. I think (that’s) the biggest difference there.

Missi doesn’t have the same level of size or length that Robinson does, but I think he’s very much along the lines of a Jericho Sims with a chance to be a little bit better than that. And so, I don’t know if they want to try their hand again at that player type and get just a little bit better version of it. But he’s not quite as big or as far above the rim as Robinson. He’s probably got a three- or four-inch lower standing reach. And he’s certainly not skilled like (Isaiah) Hartenstein.

So I think if (the Knicks) wanted to go that route, (they could) get him for a Sims-type (role) and just hope he can develop a little bit more than Sims did. I think his movement ability on the perimeter is interesting. If you look at him versus Precious Achiuwa, obviously Missi doesn’t have the same ambitions that Achiuwa does to be more than a center, but in terms of how the Knicks use Achiuwa as just a rebounder and defender, he’s probably along those lines.

Jonathan Mogbo

6-foot-6 big man | 22 years old | San Francisco

Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 44 to the Houston Rockets.

Q: Mogbo is a smaller big man who thrives as a passer and a finisher around the rim. He has a 7-foot-2 wingspan, which allows him to cover more ground as a defender. He is a great play initiator but has almost no outside shot. He only attempted two 3s during his two collegiate seasons — and he missed them both. How do you project an undersized, non-shooting, playmaking big to the NBA today?

A: Thibs has shown more willingness than most to play a double-big lineup. He’ll sometimes play two non-shooters and value the rebounding and defense you’d get from that. Thibs also did a great job utilizing Hartenstein as a handoff guy and passer. That has been something they’ve been willing to incorporate. Of course, Thibs had a lot of success with Joakim Noah as well earlier in his career, so it’s something he knows how to use. But Mogbo is small, so there will be limitations there as a rim protector, for sure.

Thibs might try to slot him into the Achiuwa-playing-the-non-shooting-four-type of situation that we saw some this season. He’s a much better passer than Achiuwa but not quite as big and not as good a shooter, even though Achiuwa’s not much of a shooter. But I think that with a lot of these guys that you’ve mentioned, there’s a version of what could happen for them over the next five, six, seven years, depending on what age they are, where they’re a much different player than they are now. But in terms of looking at their fit on the Knicks and what they’ll be in the next year or two, you can’t expect that much change. I think you just have to evaluate where they’re at now and how they fit into the way the Knicks play and not necessarily what they’ll evolve into.

Kevin McCullar Jr.

6-foot-5 wing | 23 years old | Kansas

Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 52 to the Golden State Warriors.

Q: McCullar is one of the more experienced college players, just finishing his fifth year at Kansas. In his senior season, he averaged 18 points, six rebounds, four assists and had a 28 percent usage rate, an increase of almost 10 percentage points from his fourth season. On top of that, he has a 6-foot-9 wingspan and shot 44 percent on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, according to Synergy.

The profile looks like an easy fit as a 3-and-D wing, but just a year before he shot 28 percent on open catch-and-shoot jumpers. How much stock should be put into year-over-year shooting improvements, especially in older college players?

A: Obviously, guys do make progress to some extent, but I think you have to be wary of guys where the progress had a lot to do with them having a green light and having the ball in their hands and being able to play with confidence.

Is a guy more of an on-ball player? Is he more of an off-ball player? Because a lot of guys that are on-ball players will have their best shooting numbers as upper-classmen in college, when they get to play on the ball they can feel comfortable and in a rhythm and play the way they’re most confident. And then they get to the NBA and unless they’re a very talented guy they have to be off-ball players and then it’s often hard for them to become confident and find rhythm with their shooting.

That can be a big challenge, especially for a guy like McCullar, where we did not see a lot of shooting success until his fifth year of college. We already had a big sample of him as a shooter before that. So I’d be a little skeptical that he’s gonna come in and shoot the ball well off the catch. I don’t think that’s part of his identity.

DaRon Holmes

6-foot-9 big man | 21 years old | Dayton

Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 27 to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Q: Holmes was one of the most productive players in college basketball at Dayton averaging 20 points, eight rebounds and two blocks. He improved as a shooter, hitting 55 percent of his unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, per Synergy, up from 43 percent the previous season.

The size is impressive, including a 7-foot-1 wingspan. His versatility as a defender should allow him to play at both big positions, but he projects more as a five at the NBA level. Holmes was the fulcrum for Dayton on the offensive end this season, but it may not be that way as a pro.

How do you project scaling down a player’s touches to the NBA level?

A: With him, I think he has made an encouraging jump as a shooter. To me, that is a little bit more reasonable to expect to keep going (than McCullar), because as a big guy growing up, it was never a priority for him to shoot from the perimeter. And then the last two years, he’s worked on it, and we’ve seen some progress.

I think if he gets drafted, a lot of the appeal would be a guy with some size who also can shoot the ball. Now, he was more of a focal point as a post-up player at Dayton, but I think he’s already shown quite a bit of willingness to not be a post-up player and be more of a pick-and-pop guy. And if he can shoot it well enough, we know that being a stretch big is something that works in the NBA better than probably being an undersized post-up big, which is what he was earlier in his career.

Carlton “Bub” Carrington

6-foot-4 guard | 18 years old | Pittsburgh

Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 12 to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Q: Carrington makes great live dribble reads and can pass it. He shot 55 percent on midrange pull-ups, one of the best numbers in the country, according to Synergy Sports. But his splits were all over the place. He hit 38 percent (83rd percentile) of his guarded catch-and-shoots but 28 percent (16th percentile) of his unguarded ones, according to Synergy. And he shot only 50 percent at the rim.

What do you think of his shooting potential?

A: I think the guarded versus unguarded is probably just randomness. He’s a good shooter and the overall numbers are probably more representative. But he is not a good athlete in terms of strength or explosiveness and does not have much ability to finish.

He’s interesting because he played on the ball (at Pittsburgh), but unless he makes a lot of improvement in strength and athleticism, and there is some room for improvement over the next few years, he probably is not gonna have the physical ability to be an on-ball guy at the NBA level.

He’s probably going to need to be more of an off-ball guy, but he has a really good shooting skill set to do that, so I think his game has evolved quite a bit as an off-ball guy and perimeter shooter, even if he’s a little small for a wing.

The struggles that he had finishing are indicative of some physical limitations that he has that probably will be relatively significant in terms of his ability to go forward as a point guard or primary ballhandler. And I don’t see that as the most likely path for him. But the shooting splits in terms of jump shots, I think he’s a very talented jump shooter, and any bad ones are probably more just randomness than anything.

(Photo of Ryan Dunn: Jeffrey Brown / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)