Emirates NBA Cup: Knockout Rounds preview

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The second set of Knockout Rounds in the Emirates NBA Cup’s short history offers plenty of sizzle as the quarterfinals play out in local matchups. Of the teams that advanced to Las Vegas last December, only the Bucks have a shot to go again. And with the Lakers already out, a new champion will be crowned.

There are a couple of teams, Atlanta and Houston, that hope to use the Cup competition to propel them to the strong finish and playoff success that Indiana sparked with its tournament play last year. Orlando, New York and Oklahoma City have been eager for their close-ups for a while, even as Golden State, Milwaukee and Dallas rely on experience and muscle memory to win what’s in front of them. There’s no shortage of stars, either.

Western Conference

Dallas (3-1) vs. Oklahoma City (3-1)

• Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Mavericks: Winning at Denver on Nov. 22 without Luka Dončić was the key to reaching the quarterfinals despite its opening Group Play loss to Golden State.

Thunder: Oklahoma City’s top-ranked defense (103.2) locked down even tighter in Group Play (101.6), including holding Kevin Durant-less Phoenix to just 83 points.

Without Chet Holmgren, can the Thunder cope with Dallas’ size inside?

That was a problem for OKC when the teams met, and the Mavs won, on the Thunder’s court on Nov. 17. No Dončić for Dallas, P.J. Washington leading that team in scoring, but the backbreaker was the Mavericks’ 54-29 advantage on the boards. No OKC player got more than five rebounds.

Center Isaiah Hartenstein began his season three nights later, back from a hand fracture, and he’s averaging 12.9 rpg in seven games since. But it might not be enough.

The Thunder lead the league both in committing the fewest turnovers and forcing the most, but they rank 29th in free throw attempts and got outscored from the line by Dallas in that November contest, 30-19. Dončić ranks third in Cup scoring at 31.3, fractionally better than OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Kyrie Irving is uncharacteristically down at 80th at 17.3 per Cup game.

Golden State (3-1) vs. Houston (3-1)

• Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Warriors: Golden State did its work early, beating Dallas in the Group Play opener to hang on despite losing its finale Tuesday at Denver.

Rockets: Houston clinched its West Group A berth before Thanksgiving, winning at Minnesota on Nov. 26.

How much stock should Cup enthusiasts put in Golden State’s 99-93 victory over the Rockets Thursday night?

As a quarterfinal preview, nothing is more fresh than the Warriors’ victory over the team it will face again Wednesday in Houston. Defense ruled, as we might expect given the teams’ work all season (Golden State fourth, Houston second). Combined, they missed 108 of their 179 shots, hitting 39.7% overall. And let’s remember, there was no Steph Curry or Draymond Green to bother the Rockets.

Still, it took Jonathan Kuminga’s career-high 33 points for Golden State to break a five-game losing streak. Houston has gone 10-4 lately and averages 11 more points at home (where it’s 9-3) than on the road.

Both teams qualify as surprises so far in 2024-25, with the Rockets heeding coach Ime Udoka’s defensive focus and the Warriors leading the Pacific Division by bothering foes into an NBA-worst 32.8% on 3s. Only Curry, at 23.3 ppg for 30th, ranks among the Cup tourney’s Top 60 scorers thus far.

Eastern Conference

Orlando (3-1) vs. Milwaukee (4-0)

• Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET (TNT)

Magic: These guys flirted with disaster, falling 33 points behind the Knicks in the Group Play finale … but they had a 37-point tiebreaker cushion, lost by “only” 15 and snagged the East’s wild-card berth.

Bucks: Maybe chicken, maybe egg – did they get hot at the right time or did the Cup motivate them? – but it worked, as Milwaukee went unbeaten and boasted the top point differential (50).

Can Franz Wagner continue to carry the Magic, past Milwaukee and on to Las Vegas?

Wagner has grown his offensive game to fill the void of Paolo Banchero’s absence (oblique) since the start of November. He has boosted his scoring (25.8 ppg) and shots (20.3) in that time and scored at least 29 in each of the Group Play games.

Will that be enough, though, against a Bucks team with twin turbos, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard? Each has averaged 29.3 in Cup play so far. Milwaukee’s top four scorers overall average 82.9 points and now they’ve got Khris Middleton back. The Magic’s top four? Just 61.0.

Running the Bucks off the 3-point line is essential. Orlando allows the fewest attempts (32.7) in the league but the Bucks often feast there, especially at home (39.7%).

Atlanta (3-1) vs. New York (4-0)

• Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Hawks: Their Cup ambitions lit up when they beat Boston – outscoring the home Celtics 63-51 in the second half – and they clinched their group with another impressive victory vs. Cleveland.

Knicks: New York saved its best for last in that finale vs. Orlando, handling the otherwise soft East Group A that went 3-9.

Will the Hawks be able to hold down the Knicks’ offense or figure out a way to outscore them?

Good luck with that. New York has the NBA’s top-ranked attack. It has outscored opponents at Madison Square Garden by 17.2 points per game on average, which explains its 8-2 home record. They got blown out in the Cup quarterfinals last year, missing a Vegas trip, but that came at Milwaukee.

Atlanta has more quality wings than a kaleidoscope of butterflies, led by Jalen Johnson and early Most Improved candidate Dyson Daniels. Trae Young has put them to use – his shooting and scoring are down but his assists (12.0) are at a league-high.

Still, the Knicks have that Jalen Brunson-Karl-Anthony Towns 1-2 punch and four more guys averaging double figures. The Hawks beat them on Nov. 6 in Atlanta but they’re a deficit of nearly three points per game on the road. And New York has boosted its defensive ranking from 19th overall to ninth in Cup play.

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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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