Expert picks: See how HRN writers will play the Belmont

The final jewel of the Triple Crown, Belmont Stakes 2024, happens Saturday. It will be a little different than the traditional Belmont Stakes, as it will cover 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga instead of the full 1 1/2 miles at Belmont.

Despite, or perhaps because of, the changes, the $2 million race drew a deep and competitive field of 10 3-year-olds. Those include Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, Preakness winner Seize the Grey, Blue Grass (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby second-place finisher Sierra Leone and Peter Pan (G3) winner Antiquarian.

This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the race:

Candice Curtis, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Antiquarian

On the board: Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone

Long shot I like: The Wine Steward

Analysis: Like Arcangelo last year, Antiquarian is coming into the Belmont Stakes off a solid win in the Peter Pan. He seems to be getting better with each start, and as he stretches out in distance. If he stays far enough back off the early pace he should get the jump on Sierra Leone and other closers. He will also be a playable price. Mystik Dan has a handy running style and has drawn post no. 3 once more, and you know Brian Hernandez is going to get him to the best spot on the track. If he hasn’t just zapped all of his energy reserves in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, he should run well enough to hit the board. Sierra Leone is the obvious play here, and I will definitely have win money on him. The Wine Steward is also a reliable board hitter.

Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Antiquarian

On the board: Resilience

Long shot I like: The Wine Steward

Analysis: Going to play the Peter Pan as a key race, as neither winner Antiquarian nor runner-up The Wine Steward figure to take much money here and both seem capable navigating this trip at fair prices. More than worrying about picking the winner, though, I’m gambling against the top four choices and going to box Resilience, The Wine Steward, Antiquarian and Honor Marie.

Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod

Winner: Sierra Leone

On the board: The Wine Steward, Antiquarian

Long shot I like: Seize the Grey

Analysis: If I am going to be stubborn for the first two races of the Triple Crown, why not apply this definition of insanity all the way through? I was stubborn about a mercurial Eclipse Award winner being his old self in the Derby. I was stubborn about a Baffert carrying legitimate speed in the Preakness. Fierceness and Imagination faced a combined 26 horses and beat all of six of them. So it is that I fly in the face of statistics that say 1 1/4-mile races at Saratoga are won predominantly by pacesetters and stalkers. I firmly believe Sierra Leone is the best horse in this race, even though he will come from out of the clouds to be an exception to that rule. Behind him, if The Wine Steward carries on with his second-itis, and if I sell the hype on Mindframe and go with the other Todd in the form of a legitimate stakes winner like Antiquarian, then I have my stubborn trifecta. I will throw Seize the Grey into the conversation just to cover myself if there should be a speed bias, real or otherwise. After all that is done, my vacation starts, and the Triple Crown season will be but a distant, feeble memory.

Jarrod Horak, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Sierra Leone

On the board: Honor Marie

Long shot I like: Resilience

Analysis: Sierra Leone is two noses away from a perfect record. The best closer is fresh and ready to deliver a top performance. Honor Marie can pick up some pieces from the back of the pack. Resilience had a wide trip from a tough post in the Kentucky Derby. He won the Wood Memorial from the rail and can work out a similar journey in this race.

Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast

Winner: Sierra Leone

On the board: Mystik Dan, Mindframe

Long shot I like: Seize the Grey

Analysis: This looks like a race where one of the front-runners could be long gone turning for home, namely Dornoch or Mindframe. I love the equipment change on Sierra Leone and think it’ll really help him stay out of his own way here. Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan are almost sure to hit the board. I’ll be playing Mindframe and Sierra Leone on top with Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan underneath.

Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Mystik Dan

On the board: Resilience, Sierra Leone

Long shot I like: Honor Marie

Analysis: Mystik Dan shines when he can rally inside from midpack. Not only did he get a great draw for doing that, but the likes of Dornoch, Seize the Grey, The Wine Steward and even Mindframe should ensure a sharp pace in front of him. Sierra Leone may be the favorite, but his stamina and consistency are unassailable. Resilience may be able to work a nice inside tracking trip like he did in the Wood, and the stoutly-bred Honor Marie can bounce back from his rough trip in the Kentucky Derby.