Falcons vs. Eagles NFL prediction, odds: Target this same-game parlay for ‘MNF’

Seeking to join the nine teams that have already started 2-0, the Eagles will play a second straight game in primetime when they hosts the Falcons on “Monday Night Football.”

As for the Falcons, they’re looking to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start.

Since 1990, when the league instituted the wild card, only 32 of the 279 teams (11.5%) that started the season 0-2 went on to make the playoffs.

The challenge for Atlanta this season is to overcome the offseason changes that led to a complete overhaul of the coaching staff and a new quarterback coming off a torn Achilles.

Kirk Cousins didn’t look exceptionally comfortable moving around in the pocket in Week 1, passing for just 155 yards while throwing two interceptions.

Atlanta finished with just 10 points in an eight-point loss to the Steelers, and given some of Cousins’ primetime struggles, we’ve put together a same-game parlay at plus-money to take advantage of this matchup.

Falcons vs. Eagles same-game parlay

• Leg 1: ALT total under 49.5 points (-180)
• Leg 2: Eagles to win (-250 ML)

ALT total under 49.5 points (-180)

The Eagles opened as four-point favorites and moved to -5.5 despite the news that they’ll be without All-Pro wide receiver A.J. Brown.

Thus, the Falcons aren’t getting much respect following their poor Week 1 performance at home.

One thing that’s clear about the Falcons’ new head coach, Raheem Morris, is his strong pedigree as a defensive coordinator.

While Morris might bring about some improvement to Atlanta defensively, his biggest challenge will be getting the offense up and running.

During his earlier stint as a head coach with Tampa Bay from 2009-11, the Buccaneers’ pass offense ranked 22nd or worse in two of his three seasons.

In other words, Morris isn’t some sort of a passing-game guru we can expect to roll up his sleeves and get involved with the offense. 

Instead, he’s more likely to provide the structure and function as a CEO, similar to what we see with Mike Tomlin and the Steelers.

According to Pro Football Reference, Cousins threw down the field for the fourth-fewest intended air yards (5.3) in Week 1. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats also lists Cousins with an average time to throw of 2.55 seconds, the sixth-worst mark among quarterbacks.

The total for this game has dropped three points to 45.5 after opening at 48.5. While that line move might have more to do with Brown not playing, I don’t expect Atlanta’s offense to contribute much to this game exceeding an alternate total of 49.5 points.

Eagles to win (-250 moneyline)

Playing under the bright lights of primetime has never been particularly kind to Cousins. According to Action Network, Cousins is just 12-19 straight-up in standalone games beginning at 7 p.m. or later.

And the numbers get progressively worse as you dig into the details:

• As a visitor in this spot, he’s 4-11 straight-up.
• As a visiting underdog, he’s 2-10.
• As a visiting underdog catching 5.5 or more points, he’s 0-5 straight-up.

Therefore, Cousins isn’t the quarterback we’d expect to thrive in this underdog role.

As for Atlanta’s defense, I’m not sure we can make any definitive statements, considering it faced a Steelers offense that looks unimaginative. Pittsburgh is the only 2-0 team in the league averaging fewer than 16 points per game.

Morris inherited an Atlanta roster that ended the 2023 season 24th in FTN’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. 

Betting on the NFL?

While Cousins was the Falcons’ big offseason move, they received a C- grade from Pro Football Focus after failing to improve the defensive line and cornerback position.

Monday night will be an even bigger test, given the threat this Eagles’ offense can pose in the air and on the ground.

Best bet: Same-game parlay (+130, BetMGM)

• Leg 1: ALT total under 49.5 points (-180)
• Leg 2: Eagles to win (-250 ML)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.