Falcons vs. Giants odds, line, start time: 2024 NFL picks, Week 16 predictions from proven model

The Atlanta Falcons (7-7) will try to avoid getting tripped up by the struggling New York Giants (2-12) when they meet on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta snapped a four-game losing streak with a 15-9 win at Las Vegas last week, and it will play two of its final three games at home. The Falcons are one game back of Tampa Bay in the NFC South standings, so this is a must-win game. New York has dropped nine consecutive games, falling to Baltimore in a 35-14 final last week. 

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons are favored by 8.5 points in the latest Falcons vs. Giants odds, while the over/under is 43 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Giants vs. Falcons picks, you’ll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 27-11 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on New York vs. Atlanta. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the game:

• Falcons vs. Giants spread: Falcons -8.5
• Falcons vs. Giants over/under: 43 points
• Falcons vs. Giants money line: Falcons -448, Giants +346
• Falcons vs. Giants picks: See picks here
• Falcons vs. Giants streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Falcons can cover

Despite its recent four-game skid, the Falcons still have an opportunity to salvage their season and make the playoffs. They got started with a 15-9 win over the Raiders last week, overcoming another interception from quarterback Kirk Cousins. He has thrown nine picks in his last five games, prompting the coaching staff to make a change prior to this game. 

Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will make his first career start, which gives Atlanta a stronger arm that can stretch the field vertically. Penix also offers a better ability to scramble when the pocket breaks down, and he is backed up by an elite running back in Bijan Robinson. The 22-year-old running back had 125 rushing yards in the win over the Raiders last week, so his ability to rack up quality gains will help Penix settle in on Sunday. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Giants can cover

The Falcons have simply been an untrustworthy team in recent months, going winless against the spread in their last five games. This is a pressure-packed spot for Penix to take over, while New York has nothing to lose in this matchup. The Giants have already been eliminated from playoff contention, so they can play the spoiler role on Sunday. 

They have been within one score in five of their last seven losses, including games against the Steelers, Commanders and Cowboys. Quarterback Drew Lock missed last week’s game against the Ravens due to a sore heel and a left elbow injury, but he is expected to play on Sunday. The Giants have covered the spread in six of their last eight December games. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Falcons vs. Giants picks

The model has simulated Giants vs. Falcons 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Atlanta vs. New York on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Giants vs. Falcons spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 207-139 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.