Fantasy Football ‘24: Week 1 Fantasy preview — start/sit, and more

Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season, and to the first edition of my Rides, Fades and Sleepers for 2024. Yes, NFL Football is back! U.S. Open Tennis? Baseball pennant races? College football? Step aside, all of you. The NFL is once again going to dominate the sports landscape for the next 5-plus months. I’m here for it, and I hope you are too. For the first time in many months, we all get to scream at our TVs and curse our worst draft-day decisions. But there’s also the fun side—watching your hero running back break off a long TD run, or your quarterback hitting your stacked wide receiver for a TD pass. Buckle up, friends. This season is sure to be full of highs, lows, and surprises. It always is.

I’m excited to be writing my weekly fantasy previews again this season. For those who followed me the last few seasons on my Pigskin Papers website, thank you, and welcome back. For those who are new here, welcome aboard. The column has a new look this season here at Big Blue View, but will cover most of the same information.

Week 1 is different than all other weeks of the season. On one hand, almost everyone is healthy and there are no byes, so fantasy managers have their full firepower at their disposal. On the other, we’ve got less information. We haven’t seen how certain offenses are going to look, how new acquisitions are going to fit in, or how teams are going to divide up touches and targets. On the other side of the ball, we don’t know which defenses are improved, worse, or just about the same. That all takes a few weeks to sort out (at least), but those unknowns will never be as big as they are on the first weekend in September. So for this week especially, we’re forced to rely more on what we saw last season and in the lead-up to this one. As for having your full roster available, that’s great, but it can lead to some difficult start/sit dilemmas and especially in shallower leagues.

My general advice is to just play your best players (the guys you drafted with the role “fantasy starter” in mind), and don’t get too cute. That said, it’s not always so straightforward and you’ve probably got some close calls on your roster. Let’s say you took Terry McLaurin in thesixth round, Xavier Worthy in the seventh, and Diontae Johnson in the eighth, and you can’t start all of them this week. Not so easy, right? McLaurin has a rookie QB (but less competition for targets), Worthy has never played an NFL game (but Hollywood Brown is out), and Johnson is on a new team. Having multiple good options is nice, but be prepared to leave points on the bench this week. It’s OK if that comes to pass. It’s hard to not be angry when it happens, but trust me, you actually want your players to do well even when they’re not in your lineup.

Bye Weeks: None

Injury Watch:

It’s Week 1, so players are pretty healthy. I’ll generally avoid talking about guys who are on IR, by the way. As noted above, Hollywood Brown is OUT. Higher-level players to monitor include Jaylen Warren, Ja’Marr Chase and his hold-in situation, Jordan Addison, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Romeo Doubs, and Kyle Pitts.

Week 1 Rides, Fades and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Breece Hall, Tyreek Hill, or Travis Kelce. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

Ride of the Week:

Jordan Love (@PHI, in Brazil). Love is ranked as the QB10 this week and I think that’s too low. He finished last season hot (he was the QB2 over the final seven weeks of the season, and with his talented young receiving weapons and now Josh Jacobs in tow, this is going to be a very hard offense to deal with. The Eagles used their top two draft picks on defensive backs, which makes sense when you consider how atrocious their pass defense was last season. They allowed the second most fantasy points per game (FPPG) and TD passes (35) to opposing QBs last season, and were especially terrible during the Eagles’ second half swoon. Their record-breaking pass rush from two seasons ago is a thing of the past. The Packers also catch a break in that this road game is outside the country. I love Love this week. That’s a real sentence.

Fade of the Week:

Brandon Aiyuk (vs. Jets). Do holdouts matter? Yeah, I think missing all of camp and the preseason, and being distracted by negotiations and trade rumors, has its drawbacks. Plus, missing all that time raises the injury risk upon return. When you combine all the off-the-field stuff with this week’s opponent, Aiyuk is a hard pass for me. Led by All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner, who should see a lot of Aiyuk on the outside, the Jets’ pass defense is no joke. They allowed the fewest catches, yards, and FPPG to opposing WRs last season. And get this: They only allowed five receiving TDs to opposing WRs in 17 games. Five! That stingy total was five fewer than the next best defense. If this unit is anything close to what it was last season, we’re going to be having this talk most weeks.

Sleeper of the Week:

Christian Watson (@PHI, in Brazil). The Green Bay receiving corps had fantasy managers scratching their heads all summer. The bevy of young talent is ridiculous, and how this group divides up snaps and targets will be interesting to watch. Here’s what I do know: Watson missed a lot of time with injuries last year, but when he played, he led the entire NFL in red zone targets per game. I also know that he’ll be facing the Eagles this week, who allowed the third most FPPG and the second most TD catches (27) to opposing WRs last year (and see what I wrote above about Jordan Love). And I know Watson is one of those guys who can turn on the jets and take any catch to the house. So I’m doubling up on the Packers, way down in South America. Watson is fully healthy, Romeo Doubs might not play, and at his WR38 ranking this week, I think Watson is a smash play.

Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images

QB:

Elite options this week – Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Tua Tagovailoa (vs. JAC) and Trevor Lawrence (@MIA). Once upon a time, these two young QBs faced off in a College national championship game. They also both won College national championship games as true freshman. Now they’re in the pros, with each trying to prove that he’s as good as what was promised when he turned pro. Tua and Trevor are ranked back-to-back as the QB12 and 13 this week, but I think they’re both top-10 plays. If we get one shootout this week, I’d put my money on this game, which has a Vegas total of 49.5. Both defenses can be had, and both offenses can be very explosive. It’s going to be hot and humid in South Florida and defenders are going to be standing with their hands on their knees. Fire up everything you’ve got on both offenses. You can thank me on Monday.

Jared Goff (vs. LAR). You’ve seen all the stats about home Jared vs. road Jared. Well, this is home Jared, and that also means dome Jared. Home/dome Jared is really good. He’ll be in domes for the vast majority of his games this year, and when you look at the weapons he’s got, you should expect to see him in this section a decent amount. The Rams allowed the fifth-most FPPG to QBs last season, and this game has the highest Vegas total of the week (51).

Sleepers:

Baker Mayfield (vs. WAS). Psst! Get Baker into your lineup if you can. Obviously, you aren’t playing him over the very top quarterback options, but I’d strongly consider him over a lot of the QBs ranked in the 8-16 range this week. The Commanders were the fantasy gift that kept giving last year. They allowed the most FPPG, passing yards, and TD passes (39) to opposing quarterbacks last season, and I don’t think their defense is going to be all that much better. Plus, they’re travelling to hot and humid Florida. Baker surprised as a low-end QB1 last season, and after this week he’ll be ranked as a top-10 QB for 2024. He’s ranked as the QB18 this week and that’s preposterous. When I voted with my staff earlier, Baker got two votes for Sleeper of the Week. I don’t actually have a staff. That was a joke.

Are you in a Superflex? Other lower-ranked QBs that I like this week as QB2s include Matthew Stafford (@DET) and Geno Smith (vs. DEN).

Fades:

Joe Burrow (vs. NE). I think Burrow is an OK start this week, but I wouldn’t expect a huge game. The Patriots are a bad team, but their defense can play and especially their secondary. They allowed the seventh-fewest FPPG to QBs last season, and just 18 TD passes which was the second lowest total in the NFL. Burrow might not have Ja’Marr Chase this week, and I for one won’t believe that his throwing wrist is 100% until I see it in a live game. Burrow crapped the bed in last season’s opener (playing on a sore calf), and I think his top-10 ranking this week is too high.

Dak Prescott (@CLE). If you drafted Dak, you’re almost certainly starting him this week, but I don’t have a lot of confidence. CeeDee Lamb just returned to practice after missing all of camp and the preseason with a holdout, and could have some rust. The Browns are also a bad matchup. They allowed the sixth fewest FPPG and second fewest passing yards to opposing QBs last season, bring a very strong pass rush, and are especially tough in the Dawg Pound. There’s also the distraction of his unresolved contract situation. Dak will be fine this season, but better days are ahead.

Brock Purdy (vs. NYJ). It’s great that Brandon Aiyuk finally signed a contract extension and that Christian McCaffrey should be fully available. What’s not great is that the Week 1 opponent is the Jets. The Jets allowed the fewest FPPG to quarterbacks last season, and were top-3 in fewest passing yards and TD passes allowed. And that was with an incompetent offense that kept giving the ball back to the other team. The 49ers’ vibe this offseason has been off, and a Super Bowl hangover is definitely a possibility. Throw in the very difficult Week 1 matchup and I’d look elsewhere if you can.

Kirk Cousins (vs. PIT). Yes, there is excitement over Kirk’s arrival in Atlanta, but I’d wait a week before firing him up. The Falcons have been cagey about where he stands in his recovery from surgery, and we don’t know how ready he is. It’s a new coaching staff and new skill position group for him, so an adjustment is possible. Kyle Pitts is iffy with a hamstring issue, which further dampens his prospects. The Steelers have a formidable pass rush and in general are a fairly tough defense for opposing QBs.

Others: If you’re in a Superflex league, here are some QB2s that I think aren’t the best plays this week: Justin Herbert (vs. LV), Deshaun Watson (vs. DAL) and Aaron Rodgers (@SF).

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

RB:

Elite options this week – Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Saquon Barkley (vs. GB, in Brazil). I’m very curious to see what kind of snap share, target share, and goal line usage Barkley gets. What I do know is that the Eagles were glad to pry him away from the Giants, and he’s still got plenty left at age 27. The Packers have for several years been a defense that’s easier to run on than throw against. They were a below-average run defense last season, and I think Philly will want to pound it on them if they can.

James Cook (vs. ARI). I’ve been all over Cook this preseason, so let’s ride him right away. His increased usage and productivity after Joe Brady took over the play-calling midway through last season is well documented, and lots of fans might be surprised to know that his 1,567 yards from scrimmage last year was third best among RBS, trailing just Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall. His matchup this week is as good as it gets. Arizona allowed the most FPPG and rushing yards to RBs last season, and the defense hasn’t improved much on paper. Cook is ranked as the RB14 this week and I have him as a top-10 play with upside.

Kenneth Walker (vs. DEN). Walker is another running back who I’m high on this season, and he also has a great matchup this week. I’m generally bullish on the new-look Seattle offense, which hopefully won’t resemble the plodding unit that was perennially at or near the bottom of the league in plays run in the latter part of the Pete Carroll era. New OC Ryan Grubb will have things much more up-tempo, and I think a lot of people are going to wish they had more Seattle fantasy pieces. Walker’s matchup this week is tasty, as Denver allowed the fourth-most FPPG and the second most rushing yards to running backs last season. He’s ranked outside the top-10 RBs this week and that’s too low in my book.

Other RBs ranked inside the top 30 at the position that I’m riding this week: Rachaad White (vs. WAS), Alvin Kamara (vs. CAR), Raheem Mostert (vs. JAC), Javonte Williams (@SEA), and Zamir White (@LAC). All are facing defenses that struggled against the run last season.

Sleepers: It’s Week 1, so it’s unlikely that many fantasy managers need to dig too deep for starters. But you might be looking for some longshot plays in DFS. Among RBs ranked outside the top-30 this week, Tony Pollard (@CHI) jumps out as a good play if you need him. I think he’ll look more like his old self this season and will get the majority of the work including the goal line looks. I’m also feeling pretty good about Gus Edwards (vs. LV), although I do want to see how the workload is shared. Others outside the top-30 that I’m interested in if I’m stuck or I’m looking for a DFS dart throw are Jaleel McLaughlin (@SEA), Chase Brown (vs. NE), and for a real deep sleeper, Bucky Irving (vs. WAS).

Fades:

Kyren Williams (@DET). Look, if you drafted him you’re starting him, but it’s a bad matchup and I do think he’s going to be splitting carries more than his fantasy managers would like. The Lions were tough on RBs last season, allowing the second fewest FPPG, the fewest rushing yards, and the fewest rushing TDs (five, tied with several other teams) to the position. It’s a stout front-7. In the playoff game at Detroit in January, Williams scored just 7.5 fantasy points.

Rhamondre Stevenson (@CIN). I’m fading all Patriots in fantasy until further notice. I’ll avoid them all unless and until they show they can score some points. I think this team is really going to struggle to move the ball and find the end zone this year. The O-line might be the league’s worst, and the passing game figures to be inconsistent. Also, the Bengals aren’t a great matchup and especially at home.

Steelers RBs (@ATL). Arthur Smith revenge game? Maybe, and I’m sure he’ll want to run all over the Falcons, but as he knows from being there last year, the run defense is strong. They allowed the sixth-fewest FPPG to running backs and were one of those teams that allowed just five rushing TDs to opposing backs. It sounds like Jaylen Warren is ready to go, but I worry about Smith’s penchant for throwing curveballs with Cordarelle Patterson. I think Najee Harris has an OK floor if you need him, but I’d like to give this a week or two so we can all see how the group is deployed. Old fantasy adage: Never trust Arthur Smith.

A few other RB2s/flexes that I’m fading this week are Brian Robinson, Jr. (@TB), Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle (@CLE), and Chuba Hubbard (@NO).

Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images

WR:

Elite options this week – Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and A.J. Brown; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Mike Evans (vs. WAS). You read what I wrote above about his quarterback. All of that applies here. The Commanders allowed the most FPPG, receiving yards, and TDs (27) to opposing WRs last season and they were especially bad vs. perimeter receivers and on the road. Evans checks every box and he’ll get a nice jump on his quest for an 11^th straight 1,000-yard season. While we’re here, let’s ride Chris Godwin, too.

Cooper Kupp (@DET). Kupp is only ranked four spots behind teammate Puka Nacua, and I think he’ll outscore him this week. Nacua had a ridiculous playoff game at the Lions (9-181-1) in January, and now I think it’ll be Kupp’s turn, with Puka dealing with a knee injury and shaking off some rust. The Eagles weren’t the only team that used its first two draft picks on defensive backs. So did the Lions, who tried hard to address their one remaining big weakness. Detroit allowed the third most FPPG and receiving yards to opposing WRs last season.

Other receivers ranked from 12-30 this week that I’ll flag as rides include Jaylen Waddle (vs. JAC), Nico Collins (@IND), Drake London (vs. PIT), Malik Nabers (vs. MIN), and Terry McLaurin (@TB). All have favorable matchups, and should get plenty of opportunities this week.

Sleepers:

Brian Thomas, Jr. (@MIA). I’m here for the Thomas-saince. Look, I know it’s tough to trust a rookie wide receiver in Week 1, especially one who isn’t a clear every-down player. And it’s Week 1 so you probably don’t need Thomas to start. He had a great camp and preseason by all accounts and I’m high on him this year, starting this week against a somewhat vulnerable Miami defense. He’s ranked as the WR46 and after a few weeks I expect him to be the highest-ranked Jaguars’ WR week-in, and week-out.

Other WRs ranked outside the top-35 this week that I like include Josh Palmer (vs. LV), Khalil Shakir (vs. ARI), and Darnell Mooney (vs. PIT).

Fades:

Ja’Marr Chase (vs. NE). If Chase is active, you’re playing him. And he’ll probably have a good game. I just think the distractions and lack of preparation matter, and that if he plays (I think he will), he’ll finish the week well outside the top-10 at the position. He’s ranked inside the top-10. New England has a good pass defense, and especially with everyone healthy.

D.J. Moore (vs. TEN). There are a few red flags here. Two new WRs who will demand targets. A rookie QB in his first start. A revamped Tennessee secondary that added (among others) L’Jarius Sneed, who did a great job on Moore when the Bears played the Chiefs last season. I’d consider sitting him this week if you’ve got a good pivot.

George Pickens (@ ATL). I’m down on the Steelers offense in general this week, and I think Pickens is going to be a lot more boom-or-bust than his fantasy managers would like, given his draft cost. The Falcons are a negative matchup, and I’m worried Russell Wilson isn’t going to have a lot of time to throw this week, with the O-line having myriad injuries and issues.

Chris Olave (vs. CAR). The Saints are another offense that worries me. I like Olave’s talent, but we haven’t seen that many big games from him since early in his rookie year. Last season, the Panthers were terrible against the run, but solid vs. the pass. In his two games vs. the Panthers last season Olave caught 10 passes for 114 yards and 1 TD. Good, but not great. And that was with multiple injuries to the Carolina secondary.

Other fades: DeAndre Hopkins (@CHI) and Tyler Lockett (vs. DEN).

TE:

Elite options this week – Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Dalton Kincaid (vs. ARI). Yup, I’m riding a lot of Bills. They’re at home, it doesn’t snow in Buffalo in September, and they’re playing a bad defense. Kincaid has a great chance to lead all tight ends in target volume this year, with Buffalo having turned over its wide receiver room. He’s a top-3 play for me this week.

Evan Engram (@MIA). Here’s another obvious name, but as I said earlier, play what you can in this game. That includes Engram, who led all TEs in catches last year. Miami allowed the fifth-most FPPG to TEs last year, and this could be a see-saw game where whoever has the ball last wins.

Sleepers:

Noah Fant (vs. DEN). Denver is tough on WRs, but not TEs. In fact, last season they allowed the most FPPG and total TDs (10) to TEs. Will Fant take revenge on his old team? Maybe. If you need a sleeper this week, he’s a good one to consider. He’s ranked outside the top-20 TEs.

Colby Parkinson (@DET). I can’t imagine Parkinson is on all that many rosters, but if you need a DFS flier, he’s not a bad choice. This game could be a shootout and with Tyler Higbee out, Parkinson is Matt Stafford’s main TE target.

Fades:

David Njoku (vs. DAL). Njoku was on fire down the stretch last season, but almost all of that came with Joe Flacco under center. I need to see it with Deshaun Watson on a consistent basis before I believe that Njoku is going to be a top-10 tight end this season. Dallas is a pretty neutral matchup, but I’ll wait a week or two to see what happens with Watson at the helm.

Cole Kmet (vs. TEN). I like Kmet, but not only did the Bears add two high-profile WRs this off-season, they also added a capable receiving TE in Gerald Everett. I just don’t see Kmet getting enough volume to justify him being a fantasy starter in 12-team leagues.

Dallas Goedert (vs. GB, in Brazil). The Packers were a pretty favorable matchup for TEs last season, but this was already a funnel passing offense, and the additions of Saquon Barkley and Jahan Dotson might eat into Goedert’s target share just enough to make him hard to trust on a weekly basis as a TE1.

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12):

PK: C. McLaughin (vs. WAS), B. Grupe (vs. CAR), and G. Gano (vs. MIN)

D/ST: NYG (vs. MIN) and ATL (vs. PIT)

That’s that! Good luck to all in Week 1.

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***