Fantasy Football ‘24: Week 5 Fantasy preview—start/sit and more

Welcome to Week 5! We’re at the quarter-pole of the NFL season, and it’s been an eventful month of injuries, disappointments, and surprises. There’s plenty of season left, but right now the top fantasy scorers at the major positions (Half PPR) are: Quarterback Jayden Daniels (23.7 ppg), running back Alvin Kamara (24.5 ppg), wide receiver Nico Collins (19.5 ppg), and tight end George Kittle (11.9 ppg, and he missed one game). Raise your hand if you saw that coming. None of those players had a 2024 Average Draft Position inside the first two rounds, and only Collins had one inside the first three. I won’t share the hideous details of all the highly drafted players who are hurt or underperforming. If you know, you know. And as fantasy managers, you know. I’m here to try to help you, not depress you. But when you consider that the Byes start this week, and pile on all the injuries, let’s just say that this will be challenging week for many fantasy football managers. Including me.

NFL teams seem to be coming out of their scoring slumber, for the most part. In week 1, six teams scored 29 or more points. This past week, ten teams did. On the flip side, we’ve got a few teams that are offensively challenged, and that aren’t offering much to fantasy managers. Miami (hard to believe after last year) is the worst offender at the moment, but Denver, New England, Cleveland, and the Jets are also struggling to move the ball, and to score. I’ve been fading lots of “name” players on these teams and I’ll continue to do so where warranted.

Stats of the Week:

Jayden Daniels was my top “flag-plant” player this offseason. I gave you a bunch of his stats last week, but after another stellar performance in Week 4, let’s take another victory lap with his early-season exploits.

Daniels has completed 82% of his passes through his first four NFL games. That’s an NFL record (minimum 100 attempts).

No QB since the merger has completed 82% or more of his passes over any four-game stretch. That’s right—Daniels has been more accurate over the first four games of his rookie season than any QB has ever been across four consecutive games since at least 1970 (minimum 100 attempts).

The Commanders have more scoring drives through four games (23) than Daniels has incompletions (19). And PK Cade York missed two FGs in Week 1 (and was then replaced).

OK, it’s not all about Jayden. Other fun stats:

Ravens 35 – Bills 10 was the Buffalo’s first loss by more than six points in three years.

Since losing to the Raiders on Christmas Day, 2023, the Chiefs have won 10 consecutive games (including playoffs), by a total of just 61 points.

Guffaw of the Week: The Giants and Jets share a stadium and don’t often have home games on the same NFL weekend. They did this week, and neither one scored a touchdown.

Bonus guffaw: Bo Nix is the first quarterback in 18 years to throw for 60 yards (or less) in a winning effort. At halftime, Nix had -7 passing yards, which does not include lost yardage on sacks.

Double-Bonus Guffaw: The Browns are a league-worst 11-53 on third down (20.8%). Last season, only one team (the Jets) converted at below 30%, and no team was below 25%.

OK, Week 5, here we go!

Bye Weeks: DET, LAC, PHI, TEN

Week 5 Rides, Fades and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, or Justin Jefferson. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a very strong showing in Week 4. Nobody nails them all, but my correct calls significantly outnumbered my bad ones. I did especially well with the QBs. You can check my work here: Week 4 fantasy preview.

Ride of the Week:

Jayden Reed (@LAR). In the two games started by Jordan Love, Reed has finished the week as the WR1 and WR2, with a combined 54 fantasy points scored. I probably can stop right there. But I won’t, because the matchup is tasty. The Rams have allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game ( FPPG) to wide receivers, and will be overmatched by Green Bay’s receivers. With Christian Watson out, Reed could see a slight bump in targets, and he’s always a threat to do damage on runs as well.

Fade of the Week:

Breece Hall (@MIN, London). I’m going with a very big name here – always a risk. What’s going on with Hall? His 10 carries for four yards against Denver last week was just plain ugly. You’re obviously starting him if you have him, but his production and Braelon Allen’s increasing share of the running back pie over the past two weeks is concerning. I don’t doubt his talent, but this is a bad matchup and I’d temper expectations. The Vikings have allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing RBs and have managed to put four straight opponents into a negative game script. I do think Hall could do some damage as a receiver in this game.

Sleeper of the Week:

Tutu Atwell (vs. GBP). It’s hard to guess which of LA’s Top-3 receivers will step up this week, but Atwell has made the most of his limited opportunities and if I had to bet on one, it would be him. He’s got 80+ yards in back-to-back games, has big-play upside, and the Rams are going to need to score a lot to have a chance at winning this game. He’s ranked outside the Top-45 this week (making him a deep sleeper) and that’s too low.

Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images

Quarterback:

Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels (he’s the QB1 through four games – he belongs here, at least for now); the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Jordan Love (@LAR). It took Love almost a half to shake off the rust, and part of the reason he put up big numbers last week is that his team fell behind 28-0. I double the game script will repeat, but the matchup is very good and even without Christian Watson, he’s got plenty of weaponry. The Rams have allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, and the third-most TD passes (eight).

Brock Purdy (vs. ARI). It’s been a bit of a quiet start for Purdy, and the 49ers have been down multiple weapons at times through the first four games. I think the big score is coming this week. The 49ers put up 80 points in two games against Arizona last season, and the Cardinals just surrendered 42 points to the Commanders. Arizona has allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season and a truly mind-boggling, league-worst 78.6% completion percentage. Purdy’s weapons will be Seven-Elevens—open all day. And he won’t miss.

Other QBs ranked in the Top 15 that I think will outperform their weekly ranking this week: Justin Fields (vs. DAL, who are likely to be down their two best pass rushers), C.J. Stroud (vs. BUF, whose defense is beyond banged-up), Joe Burrow (vs. BAL), Geno Smith (vs. NYG), and Anthony Richardson OR Joe Flacco (@JAC),

Sleepers:

Trevor Lawrence (vs. IND). It hasn’t been pretty for Lawrence and the winless Jaguars so far this season, and since Thanksgiving weekend, 2023, they’ve dropped nine of their last 10 games. Doug Pederson might be on the hottest seat in the NFL right now, and Lawrence’s career numbers are being compared to Daniel Jones. Yeah, sad times all around Duval County and maybe this team SHOULD move to London. Anyway, I think Lawrence is down but not out, and this is a nice spot for him. The Colts have allowed the third most FPPG to opposing QBs and overall, their struggling defense ranks dead last in the NFL, at 399.8 yards per game allowed. Lawrence is ranked outside the Top-15 this week and I think he’ll finish inside the Top-10.

It’s a tough week for the lower-rated quarterbacks (see the Fades, below). If you’re stuck, or are in a Superflex, three more lower-ranked QBs that I think you can consider this week are Deshaun Watson (@WAS), Caleb Williams (vs. CAR), and Matthew Stafford (vs. GB).

Fades:

Patrick Mahomes (vs. NO). Mahomes hasn’t been much of a fantasy QB1, going all the way back to the start of last season. The injuries are piling up and the Chiefs will be going into this game with a skeleton crew at both running back and wide receiver. Once again, they’ll be content to score around 20 points, have Mahomes dink and dunk, and win with defense. Mahomes is just the QB16 through four games, with fantasy production that’s been both consistent and unspectacular. He’s scored between 14 and 17.5 fantasy points in all four starts. You know what you’re getting. Not awful, but not what you paid for either. He’ll probably land somewhere around there again this week, against a New Orleans defense that’s allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and is third in the NFL with six INTs.

Sam Darnold (vs. Jets, London). What’s that expression about the irresistible force meeting the immovable object? Where are my physicists? I whiffed by fading Darnold last week, and if there’s a revenge game narrative that you might buy into this week, this would be it. Darnold is the QB4 through four weeks and has topped 20 fantasy points in three straight contests. He’s dialed in and he and his 4-0 team are as hot as they come. On the flip side, the Jets have allowed a league-low 603 passing yards through four games, only two TD passes, and the second fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. I usually favor the defense when the matchup looks like this.

Dak Prescott (@PIT). The Steelers’ defense was the top overall unit in the NFL for three weeks, but then stumbled at Indianapolis. I’ll write that off as a bad day where they practiced for one QB and got a very different one for most of the game. I think Dak will be OK this week, but just OK. Pittsburgh will pressure him relentlessly, and rookie offensive tackle Tyler Guyton is a major liability. He’ll also be without No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks. The Steelers have allowed the sixth-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs.

Others: For those who play Superflex, these are some lower-ranked QB options that you could be considering, but that I’d avoid: Kirk Cousins (vs. TB), Aaron Rodgers (@MN, London), Andy Dalton (@CHI). Daniel Jones (@SEA, and especially if Malik Nabers is out), and Gardner Minshew (@DEN). Oh, and don’t even think about starting a QB in the MIA@NE game.

Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images

Running back:

Elite options this week – Alvin Kamara; The analysis starts below him.

Rides:

Jordan Mason (vs. ARI). Mason paid off as a Ride in a mismatch game at home last week, so let’s run it back since this should be another good game script for SF. He’s seen 91 of the 98 running back carries for the team, and is getting the kind of elite usage you want in an RB1. The 49ers should score plenty in this one, and Arizona’s overmatched defense has allowed the fifth most FPPG and third most rushing yards to opposing RBs. In the same game, I’ll ride James Conner, who just keeps getting it done. This isn’t the same 49ers’ defense we’ve seen the last couple of years, and you can run on them.

Ken Walker (vs. NYG). It’s a short week, but that gives me little pause. Walker looked like the fastest player on the field Monday night, and went for 80 yards and three TDs on the road against the NFL’s best (by far) run defense. The Giants will offer less resistance, and the Seahawks are likely to be playing from ahead. Walker also clearly regained his lead-back role upon his return from injury, as backup Zach Charbonnet saw just two carries.

Josh Jacobs (@LAR). The Packers had to abandon the run last week as they fell way behind early, but I don’t see that happening this week. The Rams’ defense isn’t good, and they’ve allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing RBs. Jacobs is due for a big game and I think he’ll run well this week.

Other RBs ranked from 10-25 at the position that I’m riding this week include: Brian Robinson, Jr. (vs. CLE, but check the injury reports), D’Andre Swift (vs. CAR), Najee Harris (vs. DAL), and Joe Mixon (vs. BUF).

Sleepers:

Antonio Gibson (vs. MIA). Rhamondre Stevenson is the best runner on the Patriots, but he has four fumbles in four games, and that could earn Gibson more playing time. I’m not just saying that – HC Jerod Mayo went so far as to say that Gibson could start this week. I still think Rhamondre is the guy, and if you have him you should play him in what will be a favorable setting. But Gibson is a sneaky play this week. The matchup is ideal, as Miami has allowed the fourth most FPPG to the position, and the most rushing TDs to RBs (seven).

Roschon Johnson (vs. CAR). D’Andre Swift had a huge game last week, with Johnson relegated to a clear backup role. I think there will be enough to go around this week, against a bad Panthers’ defense that has allowed the second most FPPG and rushing TDs (six) to opposing running backs. Johnson converted a goal-line carry last week and I won’t be surprised if he finds the end zone again.

If you’re truly stuck this week, here are some other lower-ranked running backs (outside the Top-25) that I think you can pencil in: Bucky Irving (@ATL), Justice Hill (@CIN), Trey Sermon (@JAC) and Jaleel McLaughlin (vs. LV).

Fades:

Devon Achane (@NE). How can you start any piece of this putrid offense right now? I can’t, and I’m a Dolphins’ fan. Achane could break a big play, but that’s hard to count on and with Raheem Mostert likely to return, his opportunities could drop. I’m staying away from any and all marine mammals this week.

Rico Dowdle (@PIT). Dowdle paid off from my sleepers list last week, and he’s ascending as the No. 1 running back in Dallas, but I’ll still avoid him if I can this week. The Steelers have allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing RBs, and just one total TD to the position.

Zach Moss (vs. BAL). He split carries evenly with Chase Brown last week, so that’s a bit of a concern, and the matchup is no walk in the park. The Ravens have allowed the third fewest FPPG to opposing RBs and the 170 rushing yards they’ve allowed to running backs is more than 60 yards fewer than the next best team. The Bengals also don’t run it a lot. You can throw out last week’s easy win over Carolina—normally their run rate is near the bottom of the league. Pass.

Here are a few more Fades, each of whom has become a weekly Fade for me, for the most part: Rachaad White (@ATL), Javonte Williams (@LV), Zamir White (@DEN).

Wide receiver:

Elite options this week – CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Nico Collins; the analysis starts below them.

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Rides:

D.K. Metcalf (vs. NYG). Metcalf is playing like a man possessed this season. He missed a TD by about a foot last week, and he’s quietly racked up three straight 100 yard games. CeeDee Lamb was too much for the Giants’ young secondary on Thursday night, and they’ll struggle to contain Metcalf as well.

Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk (v. ARI). Will they both go off? Unlikely. But one of them probably will, and you want to start all of your main 49er pieces this week, including the disappointing (so far) Aiyuk, who is very overdue for a good game.

Michael Pittman (@JAC). If Joe Flacco starts, I’m running to get Pittman into my lineup. Pittman had his first good game of the season last week, and it’s no coincidence that it came with Flacco slinging it. It’s also a very good matchup, as the Jags’ defense has been toasted this season and is allowing the fifth most FPPG to opposing wide receivers.

Amari Cooper (@WAS). It’s been a mostly disappointing season for Cooper, but I correctly rode him against the Giants two weeks ago and I’ll again try to exploit a good matchup for him. The Commanders have been the most generous defense in the NFL going back to last season, and have already allowed a league-worst 10 TD catches to opposing WRs in 2024, along with the most FPPG to the position. Coooop!

Other receivers ranked from 12-30 this week that I’ll flag as rides include Garrett Wilson (@MIN, London), Stefon Diggs (vs. BUF), Zay Flowers (@CIN), Xavier Worthy (vs. NO), and Christian Kirk (vs. IND).

Sleepers (ranked outside the Top 30):

Dontayvion Wicks (@LAR). Watson out, Wicks in. It’s that simple, and you saw it last week. I also considered Romeo Doubs here, and I think you can go with him as a Flex if you have him, but Wicks is the more explosive perimeter player. It’s a very favorable matchup, as noted earlier.

Wan’Dale Robinson (@SEA). Robinson is a volume play, and if Malik Nabers misses this game, that volume could be off the charts. As it is, Robinson is fourth in the NFL with 38 targets through four games (Nabers is first, with 52). It’s not a particularly good offense in NY, but it’s a funnel, and that works for fantasy purposes. Robinson catches most of his passes near the line of scrimmage and is a much better play in Full PPR than other formats.

Jerry Jeudy (@WAS). I’ve listed Jeudy as a Ride or Sleeper maybe three times in his entire career. It’s nothing personal, but I’ve never been much of a believer, and with Deshaun Watson throwing him passes I won’t start believing anytime soon. This is about the matchup, against the league’s most accommodating pass defense. With so many wide receivers hurt or on Bye, Jeudy is a viable WR2-3/Flex play this week.

Other WRs ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need include: Khalil Shakir (@HOU), Rasheed Shahid (@KC), Josh Downs (@JAC), Tyler Lockett (vs. NYG), Allen Lazard (@MIN), and Jauan Jennings (vs. ARI). If you’re stuck, Justin Watson (vs. NO) is a deeper sleeper I’d think about. And if Malik Nabers isn’t able to suit up, Darius Slayton is also a decent long-shot play.

Fades:

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (@NE). I ran with this last week and I’ll run it back. You can’t in good conscience start a Dolphin right now. I realize how hard it is to sit Hill. But in their two games without Tua, Miami has scored exactly one TD. One! Why this team went into the season without a competent backup is beyond me and especially given Tua’s injury history. Unless and until Tua returns, I’m fading ALL Dolphins and that includes the most dangerous pair of wide receivers in the NFL.

Diontae Johnson (@CHI). Johnson is seeing the volume you want, and he’ll probably be OK from that standpoint. But Chicago’s pass defense is nasty, and I can see a very long day ahead for Andy Dalton and the Panthers this week.

Jakobi Meyers (vs. DEN). He’s the de facto No. 1 wide receiver with Davante Adams perhaps having played his last game in Las Vegas. Denver is where No. 1 WRs go to die, and they proved it again last week with Garrett Wilson, who joins D.K. Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans as No. 1 wide receivers who’ve been completely stymied by Patrick Surtain and the rest of Denver’s secondary. Hard pass.

Courtland Sutton (@LV). It’s just too hard to trust this passing game, even in a decent matchup. Sutton is a downfield threat, and Sean Payton and Bo Nix don’t do “downfield threat”.

Tight end:

Elite options this week – George Kittle and Travis Kelce; the analysis at this God-forsaken position starts below them, and honestly, I should just save us all some time and jump right to the Fades.

Rides:

Brock Bowers (@DEN). Bowers has cooled after his torrid start in Weeks 1-2, but with Davante Adams out he could lead the team in targets, and especially since Denver is so good at taking away the wide receivers.

Trey McBride (@SF). He’s expected to return this week, and the offense needs him. With Fred Warner iffy and the Cardinals likely to be chasing points, he’s a solid start.

Tucker Kraft (@LAR). Am I riding too much of the Green Bay offense? Maybe, but Kraft is emerging as a useful low-end TE1, on a very good offense.

Jake Ferguson (@PIT). Ferguson had seven catches against the Giants last week and he should be busy again, and especially with Brandin Cooks out. I think Dallas will struggle to run the ball and will have to throw a lot. Ferguson figures to see a good number of targets.

Sleepers:

Dalton Schultz (vs. BUF). The Bills have allowed the second most passing yards to tight ends, and their defense took a couple more big injury hits on Sunday night. The middle of the field was already a problem for Buffalo, and I expect the Texans to exploit that. Schultz hasn’t done much on the season, so this is a risky play.

Other TEs ranked outside the Top-15) that I think can be plugged in this week if needed include: Tyler Conklin (@MIN, London) and Cade Otton (@ATL). Want a long-shot play, including for DFS? Consider Noah Gray (vs. NO) or Erick All (vs. BAL).

Fades:

Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely (@CIN). What in the name of Edgar Allen Poe is going on with the Ravens’ tight ends? We’re used to them being targeted more than the wide receivers. Andrews is coming off back-to-back goose eggs (with only 14 routes run, total, across two games) and Likely hasn’t been much better. Lamar Jackson is throwing a lot more to his backs and secondary wide receivers than one would’ve thought. Eventually, Andrews will have a big game, and it could be this week. But he’s a really tough start right now.

Kyle Pitts (vs. TB). Is he good at football? I’m starting to wonder. Anyway, Pitts is another big-name TE coming off of a donut and Tampa’s defense that’s Top-10 vs. tight ends, with zero TDs allowed so far. If you have Pitts you probably don’t have a better option, and on top of that, you’ve gotten used to the weekly disappointment of seeing him in the box score. Or not seeing him in the box score. Start him at your own risk.

Other TE Fades: Jonnu Smith (@NE) and Noah Fant (vs. NYG).

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12): See my Week 5 waivers column.

That’s that. Happy New Year to those that are celebrating this week, and good luck in Week 5!

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***