Fantasy Football: Repeat RB1 candidates

• RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Robinson possesses elite dual-threat talents and should see a significant backfield rushing share increase this season.

• RB Breece Hall, New York Jets: Hall produced top-five results despite playing in the NFL’s worst offense last year.

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Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

The 2023 RB1 ranks experienced significant personnel and coaching changes this offseason — six qualifying teams either brought in new offensive coaches or turned over their backfield personnel. Given the positional shakeup, fantasy managers must identify which 2023 RB1 finishers, in both half-points-per-reception (half-PPR) and PPR scoring formats, have strong odds of repeating the feat in 2024. The article below breaks down three NFL running backs likely to repeat as fantasy football RB1s this year.

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson snuck across the finish line as the Weeks 1-17 overall RB12 in half-PPR and PPR scoring formats last year. He is a lock to sail past that finish in his second NFL season this year thanks to increased touch volume, his rookie-season top-10 rushing metrics and exceptional pass-catching dynamism. His 69.9 PFF offense grade ranks 27th among 33 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps.

Robinson’s excellent efficiency and dual-threat usage helped him finish as a back-end RB1 despite totaling the second-lowest backfield rushing share among 2023 RB1s.

Each 2023 RB1’s backfield rushing attempts share and team target share. The backfield includes quarterbacks, running backs and fullbacks:

Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator and former Los Angeles Rams passing-game coordinator Zac Robinson can be expected to increase Robinson’s rushing share this season. Backup running back Tyler Allgeier is a capable player, as evidenced by his 82.9 PFF offense grade, but Robinson’s exceptional traits and early-first-round draft capital command increased opportunities on the ground.

Robinson’s rushing and receiving data among 34 and 34 NFL running backs with at least 175 rushing attempts and 215 receiving snaps:

Robinson’s 33.3% first-down and/or touchdown green zone rushing conversion rate ties for 16th among 36 NFL running backs with at least 12 green zone rushing attempts, but fantasy managers should expect positive regression in 2024. He ranks third in yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.3) and No. 1 overall in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.42). 

He is one among just 10 NFL running backs who earned at least four green zone targets (six) and his 26.1% target rate ranks fifth.

Robinson is an excellent candidate to repeat as a fantasy football RB1.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs turned in a fantasy football RB1 season as a 2023 rookie, playing in Detroit’s elite offense. His second-half-season usage and results make him an effective lock to repeat the feat in 2024. His 76.3 PFF offense grade ranks 15th among 33 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps.

Detroit’s top-graded offensive line (85.3 PFF offense grade) returns four-of-five starters with an upgraded right guard spot, replacing Jonah Jackson (62.6 PFF offense grade) with free agent signee Kevin Zeitler (72.2 PFF offense grade). 

The 2023 offense ranks third in success rate (38.1%) among NFL teams, fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.086) and fifth in positive EPA rate (46.6%).

Both Gibbs (Weeks 5 and 6) and 2023 incumbent running back David Montgomery (Weeks 3, 7 and 8) missed multiple games leading up to Detroit’s Week 9 bye. Gibbs emerged from the bye as the No. 2 rusher yet improved his rushing share by 4.1% when compared to his season-long rushing share, as shown in the PPR RB1 table below. Gibbs also crucially leads Montgomery in all remaining usage metrics. Montgomery’s 79.6 PFF offense grade ranks ninth among 33 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps.

Gibbs and Montgomery’s usage in Weeks 10-to-Super Bowl LVIII:

Gibbs is already among the position’s most efficient and explosive play-makers. 

Among 63 NFL running backs with at least 60 rushing attempts, Gibbs ties for 14th in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.22) and ranks fifth in yards per rushing attempt (5.2) and fourth in explosive run-play rate (15.6%). His 80.8 PFF rushing grade ranks 14th. 

Among 34 NFL running backs with at least 215 receiving snaps, Gibbs ranks 16th in yards per route run (YPRR, 1.10), 11th in missed tackles forced per reception (0.30) and sixth in target rate (22.3%). He importantly produced a positive, 14th-ranked average depth of target (aDot, 0.1). His 67.4 PFF receiving grade ranks 15th. He is one among just nine NFL running backs who earned at least 25 first-read targets and averaged a fifth-ranked 3.1-yard aDot.

Gibbs has just three recorded injuries across his college and NFL career. 

Pending continued good health, Gibbs is a great bet to repeat as a fantasy football RB1 and has strong odds of beating his PPR overall RB8 finish from 2023.

RB Breece Hall, New York Jets

New York Jets running back Breece Hall finished as a 2023 RB1 despite a league-worst offensive environment. He is an elite RB1-repeat candidate thanks to his extreme talent and improved offensive situation. Hall’s 82.5 PFF offense grade ranks sixth among 33 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps.

New York’s dismal 2023 offense ranks 31st in success rate (28.6%) among NFL teams, dead last in both expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.243) and positive EPA rate (35.8%). Despite the circumstances, Hall Herculeanly forced 46 missed tackles rushing en route to 20 explosive run plays and forced 31 missed tackles receiving en route to 11 explosive pass plays.

New York quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ impending return from his Week 1, 2023 left Achilles tendon rupture coupled with the team’s improved offensive line bode positively for a sizable jump in overall offensive productivity in 2024. Rodgers’ 77.9 PFF offense grade from 2022 ranks 13th among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 500 offensive snaps that year.

Hall’s rushing and receiving data among 34 and 34 NFL running backs with at least 175 rushing attempts and 215 receiving snaps:

Hall is an excellent candidate to repeat as a fantasy football RB1 in 2024.