Florida vs. Texas prediction: Week 11 CFB odds, picks, best bets

After much speculation about Billy Napier’s future in Gainesville, the Florida head coach earned an extension.

The Gators reportedly plan to spend the $10 million for his buyout on NIL instead to boost the team’s talent.

Napier is no longer coaching for his job, but he still has an uphill battle against a dominant Texas team with the injuries stacking up for Florida.

Where does the advantage lie in this matchup? Let’s dive in.

Florida vs. Texas odds

(12 p.m. ET, ABC)

When Florida has the ball

Florida is coming off a loss to Georgia that was much closer than the final score indicates.

The Gators held a 10-3 lead in the second quarter when quarterback D.J. Lagway suffered an injury that took him out for the rest of the game. Lagway is questionable on the injury report, and he could be a true game-time call.

If Lagway is out, the Gators will turn to walk-on Yale transfer Aidan Warner, who was thrown into the fire last week. Warner completed just 7-of-24 passes for 66 yards with a poor 2.8 yards per attempt.

With wide receiver Eugene Wilson and running back Treyaun Webb out, the Gators also have running back Montrell Johnson Jr., wide receiver Elijhah Badger and offensive lineman Damieon George Jr. listed as questionable.

Texas safety Andrew Mukuba was upgraded to probable on Thursday, and the Longhorns will need him in the defensive backfield if Lagway can play.

Fellow safety Derek Williams Jr. is out for the season, and the Longhorns have been more vulnerable on the back end without their safeties.

Lagway is PFF’s highest-graded passer on 20-plus-yard throws this season.

When Texas has the ball

After some disappointing outings recently, the bye week should give quarterback Quinn Ewers a much-needed opportunity to get fully healthy.

After a whopping seven turnover-worthy plays against Oklahoma and Georgia, Steve Sarkisian reigned in the offense against Vanderbilt as Ewers had a 5.4-yard average depth of target, his second-lowest of the last two years.

The Longhorns’ ability to stretch the field vertically will get a significant boost with Isaiah Bond trending toward playing Saturday.

Bond is one of three Texas wide receivers to average more than 2.3 yards per route run, along with Johntay Cook II and freshman Ryan Wingo. Jaydon Blue and Tre Wisner should also find success against a Florida run defense ranked 97th in success rate.

The Gators could be without all three starting cornerbacks this week — Jason Marshall Jr. and Devin Moore are out, while Dijon Johnson is listed as questionable.

Luckily, Cormani McClain is now healthy after missing time earlier this season.

According to Action Network’s Colin Wilson, the Florida secondary already ranked 122nd in creating contested catches, and these injuries only make things worse.

Florida vs. Texas Pick

Given Florida’s uncertainty at the quarterback position, it’s challenging to be confident in a side or total in this game.

However, the Texas offense is the healthiest it has been all season, and the Longhorns rank second in the FBS in creating quality drives.

Betting on College Football?

The Gators rank just 74th in points per drive allowed and 70th in red-zone touchdowns allowed, putting them at a huge disadvantage against the Longhorns, who rank top 25 in finishing drives.

Hopefully, Lagway plays to make this game more interesting, but I’ll bet on the Longhorns offense regardless in this spot.

Best Bet: Texas Team Total Over 34.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.